Daytona 500 odds plus predictions for the rain-delayed race and the 2024 season

In Netflix’s newest sports documentary, “NASCAR: Full Speed,” a narrator explains the stakes of the Daytona 500 in terms that are all too familiar to devoted NASCAR fans: With the Daytona 500, NASCAR opens, not closes, with its Super Bowl.

Whether you think that’s a little bit of marketing finesse or a superfluous comparison, casual and dedicated fans can agree that the Daytona 500 is the big one. With a caveat regarding potential rain in the forecast, this year’s Great American Race is scheduled for 4 p.m. Monday on FOX after rain forced NASCAR to push the race to Monday afternoon. All the usual pomp and spectacle will be in place, with Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson giving the command to start engines and DJ Khaled set to wave the green flag.

A wreck in Thursday’s Duel qualifying race ruffled some feathers, with two top favorites, Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch, forced to use backup cars. (We ask below how much that matters to the outcome.) Blaney and Busch are joined by Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski at the top of the odds board. But, as we’ll get into, the Daytona 500 is a uniquely tough race to predict.

Our NASCAR experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, are here to sort it all out for us. They answered our questions about the Daytona 500 and the 2024 NASCAR season.

One thing still bugs me about last year: Ross Chastain kind of became our (my) favorite driver. He was winning races (albeit in a highly aggressive and unorthodox manner), he punched a guy, his bosses had a talk with him, and then it was like he lost his life force and mushed his way to the end. With a full offseason and time to reflect, which Chastain should we expect at Daytona and this season?

Jeff: Chastain ended last year on a high note, winning the season finale at Phoenix and irritating NASCAR champion Ryan Blaney along the way. Those were his two hallmarks over his time at Trackhouse so far: Sometimes winning, sometimes rubbing his competition the wrong way. Now, with a fresh start and a high-profile new sponsor (Busch Light), Chastain is likely headed for more of the same. You’ll be hearing a lot about him this year, one way or the other. As for Daytona, I’m not sure his aggressive style lends itself to avoiding all of the wrecks in a 500-mile race, but he’s certainly capable of winning (as are about 30 others).

Jordan: Chastain isn’t going anywhere; he showed as much last year when he won two races and led the points standings for several weeks, even as he emerged as Public Enemy No. 1 on the track. And there is reason to think he should be even better in 2024 as he’s seemingly learned to harness his aggressiveness where he’s not necessarily on “full tilt” at all times. Neither of his wins last year featured moments where Chastain was overly aggressive or did something that angered a competitor. On Sunday (or Monday, depending on the weather), Chastain is on the list of potential winners. Any skepticism about whether he can win a 500-mile race on a superspeedway has already been answered, as he won at Talladega, Daytona’s sister track, in the spring of 2022.

NOOB question of the week (you know you missed it): In the last couple of years, Zane Smith caught our attention as a Truck Series favorite/stud. Trackhouse brought him in to drive the No. 71 car for Spire this year. How different is going from a Truck to Next Gen? It seems like Xfinity to the Cup is the more natural move, as they’re both “cars”?

Jeff: Some people believe the Truck Series is actually a better preparation route these days, as Trucks drive more similarly to the Cup cars than the Xfinity cars do. It used to be that Cup and Xfinity cars were almost identical, so using Xfinity for development was a reliable path and predictor of Cup success. But it seems going from Trucks to Cup may not be as rare as it once was, and Smith was as ready as any rookie for this jump. It’s worth noting his Spire teammate (and fellow rookie) Carson Hocevar is also making a similar move.

Jordan: NASCAR’s ladder system is no longer linear, with drivers now taking different routes to secure full-time Cup rides. For example, Ty Gibbs skipped the Truck Series altogether, jumping from ARCA to the Xfinity Series, where he had little issue acclimating. Smith is regarded as one of NASCAR’s top prospects and has flashed his talent when making spot starts in Cup and Xfinity.

NOOB follow-up: Can Smith still race in the Truck Series from time to time, or will that be discouraged to keep him focused? Like an unwritten rule or anything?

Jeff: As a driver with fewer than three years of Cup experience, Smith can still race as many Truck Series races as he wants, except for the ones that are designated for series regulars only. Those are the Truck playoff races, the regular season finale and the special “Triple Truck Challenge” races with extra bonus money.

Jordan: As Jeff explained, Smith can still get reps in NASCAR’s lower ranks. And this seat time is invaluable in his continued improvement.

In your season preview, you named Ty Gibbs as the breakout driver of the year. He’s currently 25-1 to win the Cup Series. Is he in that conversation? Or are we just talking a lot of top-fives and top-10s, and maybe he’s Cup champ in 2026 or so?

Jeff: I don’t think that’s realistic. He didn’t make the playoffs last year (his rookie season) and is still inexperienced despite driving for a top team. Expecting him to even make the final eight would be somewhat of a stretch, let alone get to the championship race and then win it. It seems like his odds should be way higher than 25-1.

Jordan: Gibbs making the leap and winning the 2026 Cup title requires a bit of another leap — of faith. It often takes drivers a handful of years before they have the experience and know-how to win the championship. Could Gibbs be the exception? Sure, he’s immensely talented. But it’s also unlikely.

Who will win the Daytona 500? (See the odds from BetMGM in the table below our Q&A.)

Jeff: It seems like Toyotas are going to be the ones to beat, based on what we saw in Thursday night’s Duel qualifying races. So which Toyota? Well, Denny Hamlin is the obvious favorite from that group, but you’re not going to find much value there (especially since this race rarely unfolds in a predictable manner). Remember, the last three winners have all been surprises — Michael McDowell, Austin Cindric and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. So I’ll go with a Toyota driver, just a different one than you might expect: Martin Truex Jr. (25-1), who is 0-for-37 at Daytona and 0-for-79 at superspeedway races in general.

Jordan: Is it OK to just broadly pick Toyota? After Thursday’s Duel, it’s apparent that the Toyotas are both fast and have the ability to make moves working through the field. In addition to Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell, who won their respective qualifiers, Toyota is also going to roll out a lineup that includes Denny Hamlin and Bubba Wallace, both of whom are great on superspeedways, and Martin Truex Jr., who, though he’s never won at Daytona, has come close on a few occasions. Toyota has a good chance to win its first Daytona 500 since 2020.

Who’s an Austin Cindric-style long shot you like?

Jeff: You can talk yourself into so many great picks here because this, of all races, is the one where out-of-nowhere winners happen. Heck, Todd Gilliland and Riley Herbst are 100-1, and it’s not at all impossible they could win (long shots, sure…but still possible). I also like David Ragan and Justin Haley at 60-1; after all, they are both past Daytona winners (in the summer race).

Jordan: Two names that immediately jump out: Corey LaJoie (+5000) and Harrison Burton (+6000). Although neither driver has yet to win a Cup race, each frequently runs up front in these races, and either scoring an “upset” victory on Sunday would be surprising, yes, but also not entirely unexpected.

It’s unlike us to go down a random rabbit hole here, but we saw the name Anthony Alfredo and then saw he posted on X about his new merchandise, and now we own a “Fast Pasta” shirt. He’s currently 80-1 to win at Daytona, which is right there with Smith, who has a lot of hype. Alfredo is also 150-1 to win the Xfinity title. What’s his deal, in a few sentences?

Jeff: He ran one season of Cup in 2021, but he really wasn’t prepared for it (he’d only done a half-season each in Xfinity and Trucks), and it went terribly (10 lead-lap finishes in 36 races). He has since spent two full seasons in Xfinity, but not in winning equipment. He’s a personable young dude (only 24), but needs to make the most of every opportunity in order to try and move into better cars that would give him a proper chance of making it.

Jordan: Alfredo is a young driver who’s flashed some ability but has yet to completely put it all together, as he has not found a stable situation that’s allowed him to grow and fulfill that potential.

Thanks to a wreck in the Duels Thursday night, a very angry Ryan Blaney — the defending Cup Series champion — has to use a backup car. As does Kyle Busch. They’re both top five favorites. How badly will the backup car inhibit their chances at a win?

Jeff: These cars are all pretty similar these days under the Next Gen model. It’s not like “Days of Thunder,” where Harry Hogge tells the race car that he’s going to “shave half an inch off you and shape you like a bullet.” They’re all shaped the same now, or they wouldn’t get through the laser inspection system.

Jordan: Minimal, if any, impact. Nowadays, a team’s backup is as good as its primary.

2024 Daytona 500 race winner odds

Odds from BetMGM.

(Photo of Ryan Blaney: Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)