Home Sports Fantasy baseball mailbag: Playing the patience game with Julio Rodríguez, Vinnie Pasquantino and more

Fantasy baseball mailbag: Playing the patience game with Julio Rodríguez, Vinnie Pasquantino and more

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Fantasy baseball mailbag: Playing the patience game with Julio Rodríguez, Vinnie Pasquantino and more

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I’m brand new to a FAAB auction roto league. I previously only did weekly head-to-head categories leagues. So far, I am getting my ass kicked in the new league while holding my own in the old ones. I’m having trouble pinpointing why that is. Is there a learning curve with FAAB leagues? Roto leagues? Do you value different skills that you might not in a weekly H2H format? — James H.

This question can help many. Knowing the details and rules of each format is important. A head-to-head format and roto have different strategies. If you play in a category format in which you win 6-3, 5-4, etc. each week, it’s easier to punt a category or two. It’s more difficult to do in roto formats. Streaming middling two-start pitchers is easier to digest in head-to-head since it’s erased after the week, while an awful start stays in your stats in a roto format. I have always said, the most difficult thing to help people with is FAAB strategy. Every league is different. Some are aggressive, while others aren’t. Here is an example from my leagues this year. Each format is the same: 15-teams, 30-roster spots and $1,000 FAAB. Jason Foley was available on March 31. In one league he went for $366 with a runner-up bid of $276. In another league, he went for $271 with a runner up of $193. And in yet another league, he went for $77 with the next bid at $15. Several analysts can tell you to bid 10-15% on a certain player and all it takes is someone to go 30% for you to be out in the cold. The more experience you have in a FAAB league, the better you will get. A lof of it is feel and knowing the league. It also depends on how badly you need a player and the depth of the player pool. In 10- or 12-team leagues, there’s more depth in the player pool and you don’t need to spend big money on the lower-tier players like streamers. When you lose two or three starting pitchers in a week, spending more on a pitcher is advisable since the team needs one badly.

What the hell is up with Spencer Torkelson? Droppable in a 12-teamer? — Samuel D.

Several people have asked about Torkelson and there is reason to panic. He has been awful. While he started slowly last season and had a great two-month stretch to end the season, Torkelson doesn’t have enough of a track record to believe in him. He is in the bottom sixth percentile of many categories, including barrel rate, xSLG and xBA. He hasn’t hit a home run. The Tigers first baseman is in the 72nd percentile of chase rate. The underlying numbers don’t paint a positive picture. Torkeslon has moved down the batting order and manager A.J. Hinch said the next stop is next to him. Torkelson was struggling at the same point last year and finished with 31 home runs and 94 RBIs. There’s a chance he gets better, but if there is a good player on the waiver wire to replace him, it’s fine to drop him in a 10- or 12-team league. In the worst case scenario, you can bench him, as I am currently doing in a 15-team league.

I’ve lost Spencer Strider and Eury Perez in a 14-man league and am in last place. How do I enjoy the rest of my fantasy season? — Steven L.

We have all been there. Injuries stink and can ruin the fun. Never quit. Never give up. As bleak as it looks now, it can easily turn around. I have seen many teams win after losing their first-round pick. Numerous teams have been in last place at this time of the year and won a championship. It will take work and making smart decisions. Work the waiver wire. Make trades. Even if it’s a deep hole and a championship appears slim, work to get back to a higher spot in the standings and it will bring you satisfaction. I had a team a few years ago with a lot of injuries and several underperforming players. I was last in June, but finished fifth. Obviously, I value championships more and want to win every league, but in that context I was proud. I will never quit on any team. It’s not in my DNA and I don’t want to ruin the league. This is supposed to be fun and injuries do put a damper on it, but every team is dealing with injuries.

How much more patience should I have with Julio Rodríguez? He was my No. 1 draft pick and hasn’t lived up to my expectations. — Lloyd W.

I feel your pain. I have Rodríguez in a few leagues, including one of my NFBC Main Event teams. I was hoping with two years of experience in the majors, the slow starts would dissipate. Clearly, they haven’t. In his rookie year, Rodríguez slashed .205/.284/.260 with nine runs, no home runs and six RBIs in his first 20 games. Last season, he slashed .239/.314/.441 with 18 runs, five home runs and 13 RBIs in his first 27 games. It has been worse this year, especially in terms of power. The strikeout rate has increased 4.4% from last season to 28.9%. He’s chasing too many bad pitches and is in the 14th percentile of chase rate. He is still hitting the ball hard and in the 81st percentile of hard-hit rate. Rodriguez has a 26.8% line drive rate, but just a 28.9% fly ball rate. Power is down across baseball and that’s likely a factor, too. Rodríguez tends to go on torrid streaks and we saw big second half production in each of his first two years. If there is anyone you should have patience with, it’s Rodríguez.

Is Justin Verlander now replacement level/waiver wire streamer? His starts haven’t looked good. — Mike F.

I wasn’t interested in Verlander this season. He’s 41 and had a shoulder injury before the season. It’s only four starts and the one against the Yankees is the only awful one, but the underlying numbers aren’t good. Even last season, the strikeout rate was down to 21.5% and he had his lowest swinging strike rate in years at 9.9%. The strikeout rate is 16% and the walk rate is 10.6%. Batters are making more contact, especially hard contact, and he has allowed a 13% barrel rate. Verlander can still be relevant in fantasy, but he won’t be close to recent seasons.

I’m having a hard time keeping Vinnie Pasquantino on my roster. The StatCast page looks alright, but he isn’t producing. What’s your recommendation? — Dan P.

It’s not surprising Pasquantino is off to a slow start. He had shoulder surgery in June last year and missed the remainder of the season. It can take some time for a hitter to get going off a shoulder injury and the weather early in the season hasn’t been ideal. As you mentioned, the StatCast page looks excellent. There’s a lot of red and he’s near the top in many categories. He rarely strikes out and is one of the few players with more walks than strikeouts. He has a 9.7% strikeout rate and 13.2% walk rate. Pasquantino hits third in the order and will have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. There are a lot of underachieving players in baseball currently and Pasquantino is one to keep on the roster.

(Top photo of Julio Rodríguez: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports)



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