Lowetide: Oilers defenceman Brett Kulak and his role with the team

The March 2022 trade for defenceman Brett Kulak has become one of the best deals by Ken Holland during his time as Edmonton Oilers general manager.

The club doubled down and signed Kulak to a four-year deal that summer, with an AAV of $2.75 million.

At the time of the signing, there was some grumbling about the size of the cap hit for a third-pairing defender. Since then, critics have moved on to other areas of the roster as target points, because Kulak has been reliable and effective in his time with Edmonton.

How good has Kulak been? What kind of chores does he do? Is there a threat to his role with the team?

Here’s a look.

Five-on-five

In order to understand his impact, it’s important to put Kulak’s contributions with the team into context.

Kulak plays on the third pair. Here are the left-side defenders who played that role since 2015-16, with their goal share and expected goal share each season.

All numbers five-on-five via Natural Stat Trick

The players on this list have some things in common. They’re (mostly) young players pushing their way up the depth chart, or older players who were in a feature role but were either injured or fading from age.

The first of two key items: There’s a ton of churn on this list, Edmonton was trading young defenders (Brandon Davidson, Caleb Jones, William Lagesson) while retaining just one (Darnell Nurse).

The second item: The position offered no consistency in terms of a single individual posting 50 percent or better results over more than one season until Kulak arrived on the scene.

The only player in this group who looked like he might emerge as a quality outscorer as a third-pair defenceman was Davidson. He ran into injuries (courtesy of Matthew Tkachuk and Dustin Byfuglien) that would derail his NHL career, but Davidson had the chops to be a difference-maker in the same vein as we’re seeing with Kulak in Edmonton.

Jones showed promise as an outscoring third-pair defender in 2019-20 but didn’t get back to 50-plus percent again until this season with the Colorado Avalanche.

Kulak plays a significant amount (14 minutes per game this season) at five-on-five, with 27 percent of that time against elites in 2023-24.

According to Puck IQ’s latest data, Kulak is doing well in those difficult minutes. Here are the totals, for each of the left-handed defenders, since Jan. 1.

All numbers five-on-five

All three men are at 50 percent or better at Dangerous Fenwick percentage (DFF), which is similar to expected goals. It’s best described as smart Corsi, giving extra importance to shots taken close to the goal and dangerous shots that have the goaltender moving just before release.

Based on those numbers, we can conclude Nurse is playing in bad luck. His actual goal share should be far better based on his possession number.

Kulak is enjoying a fine season in all areas, including time versus elites. Some of these results can be considered luck (his goal share is higher than the possession metric) but he has been consistently excellent since coming to Edmonton.

At five-on-five, Kulak is a quality No. 3 who can slide up the roster as required. Since March 1, Kulak is averaging 3:56 per game against elites, with Nurse at 4:20 in that time.

Kulak is taking on a larger role in this area over recent weeks.

Penalty kill

Kulak plays just 54 seconds per game on the penalty kill, which ranks well behind Ekholm and Nurse among Edmonton’s lefties.

His totals suggest he might warrant more ice time in this part of the game.

Kulak’s 50.3 SA-60 is second in the group, and well ahead of Nurse’s 55.4 shots-against per 60 minutes. His GA-60 (6.17) is also miles ahead of Nurse (9.76).

The samples are small and parsing these totals and offering them as positive proof would be unfair.

The argument can be made that the organization could slice a little playing time off Nurse’s total, potentially making him more valuable in the minutes he plays.

Style

One of the reasons Kulak is so valuable is foot speed. He can wheel. According to NHL Edge metrics, Kulak’s top speed lands in the 79th percentile among NHL regulars.

He’s a veteran, is able to read plays well and get the back to safety.

Kulak also stands forwards up at the blue line, forcing shoot-ins. His speed comes in handy again, as he can beat or tie a rushing forward to the puck.

He’s not an overly physical player, but it would be unfair to describe him as shy when it comes to physical contact.

The future

Holland was aggressive in signing Kulak long-term after the 2022 deadline deal, and the player has delivered more than the value of his contract.

The Athletic player cards have Kulak delivering $4 million in market value for the $2.75 million annual investment. Among lefty defencemen on the team, he trails only Ekholm this season.

His strong performance since arriving in Edmonton has created a dilemma for management.

The organization has a less expensive option (Philip Broberg) in the AHL with the Bakersfield Condors. He’s beyond NHL-ready and demonstrably frustrated by his current predicament, as detailed by Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic in early December.

There’s an argument to be made in favour of dealing a veteran (Kulak doesn’t have trade protection) and running the less expensive Broberg on the third pairing next season.

That might be true in many cases, but the Oilers are pushing for the Stanley Cup, this season and next, probably through the end of the decade.

There’s no indication that Kulak’s performance is falling off. In fact, based on small increases in playing time at five-on-five, it can be argued his role with the team is increasing at this time.

It’s safe to say Kulak being dealt has been an option for some time.

The fact he’s still in Edmonton is a clear indication of the organization’s belief in this player.

(Photo: Winslow Townson / USA Today)