What follows is my three-round SuperFlex mock draft, where I take into consideration a combination of player talent, drafted situation, and positional tiers to give you an idea of how to slot the rookies for upcoming drafts. I do my best not to allow outside influences from social media and non-expert sources, relying instead on my own scouting, informed by those NFL scouts I trust. I’ve been very pleased with my results over the years using this method.
I’m changing up my normal format, listing each selection followed by brief commentary so that each pick receives a note as to my thinking. Special circumstances such as a change in tier will also be noted.
Let’s get to the mock draft!
Round 1
1.01 — Caleb Williams, QB CHI
It’s an easy selection. Make the pick and move on. If you’re flush at quarterback, you can consider Marvin Harrison Jr. as a replacement.
1.02 — Marvin Harrison Jr., WR ARI
While it’s not uncommon for top receivers to lose luster due to a poor quarterback pairing, that’s not the case here with MHJ. I’ve seen Malik Nabers selected as the first receiver off the board, but you won’t find me making that choice.
1.03 — Rome Odunze, WR CHI
I’ve had Odunze ahead of Nabers in my rankings from the beginning and I’m keeping him there now. There’s a hair’s distance between them in my scouting, but Odunze’s size and quarterback situation are enough for me to give him the edge.
1.04 — Malik Nabers, WR NYG
You can’t go wrong with either receiver, but Nabers’ situation could become dicey yet again after Daniel Jones exits New York, potentially in 2025.
1.05 — Jayden Daniels, QB WAS
I think Washington finally has their long-term quarterback and he profiles well enough to be no less than the fifth selection in SuperFlex drafts. This pick completes the first tier.
1.06 — Drake Maye, QB NE
It gets difficult here in that Maye’s New England situation is far from ideal. Expect him to sit a good portion of 2024 before seeing the field, which is in his best interest.
1.07 — Brian Thomas, WR JAX
A selection of JJ McCarthy could be validated here but I have just enough reservation to slot Thomas ahead of him at 1.07. A combination of quarterback quality, situation and profile is tough to pass up.
1.08 — JJ McCarthy, QB MIN
I love his situation but Sam Darnold sits above him on the depth chart and most are downplaying the potential. Darnold could perform well out of the gate and may retain the starting role beyond 2024.
1.09 — Brock Bowers, TE LV
It was a curious pick given the Raiders already have Michael Mayer, but Bowers’ athleticism and ball skills are such that he’s going to see a lot of snaps. This selection completes the second tier.
1.10 — Jonathan Brooks, RB CAR
As expected, the running back position is a mess with Brooks easily holding the RB1 label. If he’s healthy, he’s a solid selection and should easily ascend to the top of the depth chart in 2024.
1.11 — Ladd McConkey, WR LAC
I believe most drafters are overvaluing his potential — he’ll be an underneath target for Justin Herbert. PPR formats should highlight his potential but I’m not expecting significant touchdown production.
1.12 — Keon Coleman, WR BUF
Coleman lost value after a sub-optimal (4.61) 40-time, but his drafted situation remains one of the most intriguing. He’ll start immediately and will have every opportunity to develop early.
Round 2
2.01 — Xavier Worthy, WR KC
Social media pundits are falling over themselves for Worthy as Patrick Mahomes’ newest weapon. Let’s not forget the failures of past Combine speedsters as well as the Chiefs’ inability to find a replacement for Tyreek Hill. Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kadarius Toney have all come up well short. I’m lower than most.
2.02 — Bo Nix, QB DEN
There’s no discounting his opportunity, even though he was the sixth quarterback off the board.
2.03 — Ricky Pearsall, WR SF
A lot to like in Pearsall’s game but it will take the departure of Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel to unlock his potential. Look for greater returns beyond 2024. This selection completes the third tier.
2.04 — Adonai Mitchell, WR IND
I’m a believer in Mitchell’s athletic profile, though there were concerns about his emotional profile, reportedly dropping out of the first round due to Combine interview concerns. The Colts have quietly assembled an impressive young group of receivers for Anthony Richardson.
2.05 — Xavier Legette, WR CAR
Legette could appear as my 2.03 selection, though I prefer Mitchell’s broader athletic profile. Legette should start as a rookie and could establish himself as Bryce Young’s top option.
2.06 — Roman Wilson, WR PIT
The Steelers are among the best at scouting receivers and Wilson is an under-the-radar asset who should slot in as a starter immediately. While not a “sexy” rookie pick in dynasty drafts, I’ll be targeting him in the middle of the second round.
2.07 — Trey Benson, RB ARI
I continue to avoid rookie running backs, though Benson’s situation is easy to list as the RB2 in this draft behind only Jonathan Brooks. Look for greater production in 2025 and beyond. This selection completes the fourth tier.
2.08 — Ja’Lynn Polk, WR NE
Polk doesn’t profile as a WR1 in the NFL and reminds me a lot of Tyler Boyd. I’m not crazy about his New England situation but he’ll have a chance to start from Day 1.
2.09 — Malachi Corley, WR NYJ
Would have preferred a more prominent role but Corley should mix in with Xavier Gipson to work across the field for Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. There’s too much production mystery in this selection for me to have significant confidence.
2.10 — Jalen McMillan, WR TB
One of my favorite sleeper receivers of this draft. If you can get McMillan anywhere after this selection, he’s a bargain. I’d be comfortable with him as high as 2.07.
2.11 — Troy Franklin, WR DEN
Fell much further than expected and I believed the Broncos would eventually pair him with Nix, and they did! He’s a better route-runner than most speedsters and makes the end of the second round an intriguing spot to trade back to.
2.12 — Jaylen Wright, RB MIA
He’s talented but lost in the depth chart like many other running backs. A selection of Wright here means you’ll need to be patient, something I tend to avoid with running backs.
Round 3
3.01 — Devontez Walker, WR BAL
Easy to root for; good athletic profile but inconsistent hands. Love the situation and he’s an ideal Round 3 selection.
3.02 — Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE CAR
He has more talent than this selection, but rookie tight ends are notoriously hard to project.
3.03 — Theo Johnson, TE NYG
Was a late riser and, if Darren Waller retires, Johnson could be thrust into a starting role sooner rather than later.
3.04 — Will Shipley, RB PHI
Almost a clone of Christian McCaffrey athletically, with similar size and Combine metrics. He’s a Swiss Army knife player and could have a role early. Feast-or-famine selection. This selection marks the end of the fifth tier.
3.05 — MarShawn Lloyd, RB GB
Very disappointing drafted situation, highlighting why I downgrade running backs in rookie drafts. He may have the most complete profile of all the rookie running backs.
3.06 — Luke McCaffrey, WR WAS
A surprisingly early selection can’t be discounted. The Commanders cleared some of the depth chart and McCaffrey has the work ethic to capitalize.
3.07 — Michael Penix, QB ATL
I was as stunned as everyone else. There’s talent here but I’m not waiting three years or more for output, even with the chance he starts earlier. He turns 24 next month.
3.08 — Jermaine Burton, WR CIN
Will have a chance to compete for the vacancy left by Tyler Boyd. He’s been a riser on social media and it’s not unfounded.
3.09 — Erick All, TE CIN
A sneaky good selection. Many NFL scouts believe he’s the TE2 in this class if he were healthy. Will take patience but he has a chance to be a third-round steal.
3.10 — Ben Sinnott, TE WAS
Very little above him on the depth chart with only aging Zach Ertz in the way. A second round selection, Sinnott was drafted to see the field early.
3.11 — Ray Davis, RB BUF
Another great story and an easy-to-root-for player. His drafted situation is as good as could have been hoped for. There’s late-round intrigue here if he falls.
3.12 — Malik Washington, WR MIA
The Dolphins have a track team and I was watching Washington’s drafted situation. He provides upside in an offense that could unlock early-career production.
Summary
Not unexpectedly, the running back position remains a compromised dynasty asset with difficulty in finding established roles and production. As such, I continue to fade the position in earnest.
This year’s receiver group is the glue that binds this class, while the quarterback depth pushes those receivers down to the late-first round and beyond, a boon for those holding later selections. The projected third round of dynasty rookie selections will provide fair upside and I’ll be seeking trade-back opportunities to add picks between overall selections 20 and 28.
If you have any questions or comments, please consider leaving a comment below. I always look forward to interacting with my readers. Please give me a follow on Twitter and Threads: @DLF_Jeff
As always, be happy, be well and, please, be good to each other!
(Photos of Xavier Legette, MarShawn Lloyd and Jalen McMillan by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images; Top photo: John Korduner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
