The hockey world is still processing the blockbuster three-way trade on Friday night, in which the Colorado Avalanche traded Mikko Rantanen to the Carolina Hurricanes.
Players of Rantanen’s superstar caliber rarely get traded. It’s especially unusual to see a trade of this magnitude in which the team shipping away the best player is a contender with win-now aspirations.
Rantanen’s uncertain contract situation — he’s in the final season of a six-year, $9.5 million AAV contract he signed in 2019 and will be an unrestricted free agent in the summer — forced Colorado to move him. The Avs already had approximately $79 million worth of salary commitments for next season, which accounted for just nine forwards, four defensemen and two goaltenders before the Friday blockbuster. General manager Chris MacFarland could have fit a mammoth Rantanen extension to the 2025-26 books, but it would have likely required sacrifices and cuts to the other parts of the roster, further eroding the depth of an already top-heavy team.
Rantanen’s contract status still looms as a massive storyline. If the Hurricanes can extend him, this is a home run. However, if he walks in free agency, as Jake Guentzel did, the price they paid to acquire him for a single playoff run will seem steep.
What could Rantanen’s next deal cost? How would adding that type of figure affect Carolina’s cap situation? Let’s dive in.
Projecting Rantanen’s next contract
Rantanen’s pool of comparables is quite narrow because of his rarity as a player and because of the league’s rapidly changing cap dynamics. Here are a few that stand out nonetheless.
Rantanen contract comparables
| Player | Career Points/GP | Platform Season Points/GP | Cap Hit % |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1.08 |
1.33 |
13.5% |
|
|
0.89 |
1.46 |
13.1% |
|
|
1.16 |
1.10 |
13.2% |
|
|
1.20 |
1.31 |
N/A ($14M cap hit) |
|
|
1.10 |
1.30 |
N/A |
William Nylander’s eight-year, $11.5 million AAV extension with the Leafs last year raised the bar for what elite wingers earn. Rantanen has outproduced Nylander in each of the last five seasons. He’s on pace for his third consecutive 100-point season and has a 50-goal campaign under his belt, both milestones Nylander has never reached.
Nylander was able to command 13.1 percent of Toronto’s cap total on his contract. That would translate to a $12.7 million cap hit if we assume the salary cap rises to $97 million next season, which is the latest estimate shared by agent Allan Walsh on the Agent Provocateur podcast. Given that Rantanen has decisively outproduced Nylander, it’d be a pipe dream for a team to think it can sign Rantanen to an extension with an AAV that starts with a 12. It’s going to be higher.
The big question is how close Rantanen deserves to get to Leon Draisaitl’s $14 million AAV figure, which also kicks in next season. After all, there have been whispers that Rantanen is targeting the neighborhood of $14 million.
On paper, it seems a bit rich. Draisaitl has outproduced Rantanen for seven consecutive seasons and has a 71-point lead over him during the last five seasons. He’s also a center, which is valued as a premium position. Draisaitl appears to be the Hart Trophy frontrunner this season, further underscoring that he’s a higher-caliber player than Rantanen.
David Pastrnak may be the fairest comparable on the list, even though his contract was hammered out in 2023. Rantanen and Pastrnak’s statistical resumes are nearly identical, both over their careers and during the final season of their respective contracts. Rantanen has slightly eclipsed Pastrnak point-production-wise during the last five seasons, but it balances out because the latter doesn’t have the luxury of playing with Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. Pastrnak’s deal, which ate up 13.5 percent of the cap, would translate to approximately a $13.1 million AAV assuming a $97 million ceiling for next season.
Rantanen’s fair market value is somewhere in the $13 million to $14 million cap-hit range. You can argue that the number should be closer to $13 million because Rantanen’s track record and position don’t make him as valuable as Draisaitl at $14 million. However, the Canes may not have the leverage to play hardball, considering the assets they surrendered to land him. The fact that the Avs couldn’t extend Rantanen also speaks volumes about his camp’s potential desire to squeeze out every last dollar possible. It doesn’t seem like the type of negotiation that’s going to be easy for a team to win.
These dynamics increase the probability that Rantanen’s final number ends up closer to $14 million, even though he should arguably be worth closer to the $13 million AAV range.
The Hurricanes’ advantage is that they’re the only team that can offer Rantanen an eighth year on a contract (unless they trade him before July 1), which increases the total money he could earn compared to the July 1 UFA market, when teams can only offer a maximum of seven years.
What would the Canes’ cap situation look like after a potential Rantanen extension?
The Hurricanes currently have just $56.8 million worth of cap commitments for next season. They’ll have approximately $40 million of cap space if we assume a $97 million cap ceiling for next season.
Let’s assume the Canes give Rantanen a player-friendly $14 million AAV on a long-term extension. Carolina would still have approximately $26 million of cap space left over with five forwards, three defensemen and one goalie left to add to complete a full 23-man roster. That’s more than enough wiggle room to address those needs.
Dmitry Orlov and Brent Burns are Carolina’s two most notable pending UFAs. Both are crucial top-four contributors, but the way general manager Eric Tulsky handled the departures of Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce last summer proved that the Canes have no difficulty replacing core players who aren’t stars.
The Canes are uniquely well-positioned to absorb Rantanen’s huge ticket because of their favorable cap structure.
Sebastian Aho is the only forward on the team whose AAV is higher than $8 million, and he still clocks in at below a $10 million AAV ($9.75 million), which makes him an undervalued first-line center. Jaccob Slavin is the club’s highest-paid defenseman for next season at a modest $6.39 million cap hit. Besides Slavin, they don’t have any defensemen on the books for next season who make $4 million or higher. Carolina has this cap flexibility advantage because it’s been ruthless over the years about letting non-star UFAs walk.
If Rantanen’s decision to sign with a team simply comes down to being paid full market value by a Stanley Cup contender, he’ll be hard-pressed to find many fits better than Carolina. The Hurricanes are one of the only win-now organizations that can afford to pay Rantanen every penny he wants and still have enough cap flexibility left over to build a formidable supporting cast.
(Photo of Mikko Rantanen: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
