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So a 1.33 ERA isn’t strong enough to keep a spot in the Phillies rotation? Also, notes on Blake Snell’s injury, a Reds reliever with a “gift” and a way to root for the 3-21 White Sox (or at least one of their minor leaguers). I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to The Windup!
Spencer Turnbull and his 1.33 ERA headed to bullpen
When Spencer Turnbull left last night’s game, his Philadelphia Phillies led the Cincinnati Reds 3-1. He had eight strikeouts and had allowed one run on three hits and three walks. His ERA — thanks to a solo home run by Will Benson — had actually jumped, from 1.23 to 1.33. It’s the second-lowest mark in the National League, and as Matt Gelb tells us, the lowest ERA in a pitcher’s first five starts with the franchise since Cliff Lee’s absurd 0.68 mark in 2009.
So why does it appear Turnbull has made his last start for the foreseeable future?
The reasons are a little complicated (and I’m still not sure they justify the move). But let’s examine:
• Taijuan Walker is set to come off the injured list on Sunday. As Gelb reports, “Walker was miffed at not being included in the club’s postseason plans in October. The Phillies mended relations over the winter, and they are incentivized to make Walker feel wanted — and needed.” Gelb also states that this is not a “free pass” situation for Walker, and he’ll have to perform to keep his spot, especially with Turnbull’s success. But it’s a consideration.
• It’s not like there are a lot of other obvious candidates to lose their spot in the rotation. Here’s where Phillies starters stand as of this morning:
That’s a pretty great rotation that has been on quite a run recently. So, for now at least, the 31-year-old Turnbull appears to be a starter [ahem] turned-bullpen arm. Walker will get a chance to prove he belongs, and the Phillies might have the best long reliever in the game.
It is, as they say, a good problem to have. How many teams out of 30 are asking the opposite question: Where on earth are we going to find some bulk innings?
And you know what? That’s about as good a transition as we’re going to find for Ken’s Notebook. Take it away, Ken …
Ken’s Notebook: The perils of betting on yourself
This was the risk Blake Snell took.
“Betting on myself” sounds like a noble concept, but the strategy increases pressure on a player to produce. Snell had an 11.57 ERA in his first three starts with the San Francisco Giants. Now he is on the injured list with a left adductor strain, an injury he said cost him 3-4 weeks when he had it twice before. He said he doesn’t think this issue is as serious.
Snell’s agent, Scott Boras, said each of his top four free agents — Snell, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and Jordan Montgomery — chose short-term contracts with opt outs over long-term deals. The details of each negotiation, and the amounts each player was offered, are not known. But Montgomery, after reaching a one-year, $25 million agreement with the Arizona Diamondbacks with a vesting player option for a second year, left Boras for another agency, Wasserman.
Bellinger, like Snell, went on the injured list Wednesday, suffering from two fractured ribs. The timetable for his return is unclear, Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell said. But even if Bellinger, 28, misses considerable time, he is in a stronger position than Snell. He is three years younger and has a greater runway after signing a three-year, $80 million deal with two opt-outs. Snell signed a two-year, $62 million deal with one.
The $31 million average annual value Snell received matches the 10th highest all-time for a pitcher not named Shohei Ohtani. If Snell’s season ends up mediocre, he can return to the Giants with the goal of performing better in 2025. But he would be a year older and would return to the open market in his age-33 season.
It wasn’t supposed to work out this way. Despite missing spring training, Snell supposedly was in game condition after throwing regularly at one of Boras’ sports training institutes. Montgomery, who went through a similar program, has experienced no difficulties thus far, producing a 2.08 ERA in his first two starts.
A major-league season lasts six months. We are not yet through one. If Snell returns by late May, he can still go on the same tear he did last season, when he had a 1.20 ERA in his last 23 starts and won the National League Cy Young Award. Chances are, though, he will need time to return to form. When healthy, he has generally been a better second-half pitcher.
Snell started the season playing catch-up. He will return needing to play catch-up again. This was the path he chose. And at this point, it’s looking like a rocky path indeed.
Fernando Cruz’s “gift” — his splitter
One of my favorite things in baseball is when a pitcher has a signature “out” pitch — doubly so when everyone in the ballpark knows it’s coming. That’s fine. Hit it if you think you can, here it comes.
This happened on Tuesday, when injured Reds pitcher Tejay Antone was in the Bally Sports booth and Fernando Cruz was on the mound, Trea Turner had a two-strike count, and, well, I’ll let C. Trent Rosecrans relay this part of the story:
“When play-by-play announcer John Sadak asked if it was time for the splitter, Antone said, “It’s a given.” Antone then added, “Trea Turner knows it’s coming and he’ll still swing at it.”
Tejay “Tony Romo” Antone was right. Turner swung and missed.
“And he’ll still swing at it…” @TejayAntone is a gem in the booth. pic.twitter.com/ioGbNyEgMQ
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) April 24, 2024
Turner said the next day that he had, in fact, been expecting the splitter, and why wouldn’t he? As Rosecrans informs us, when there are two strikes, Cruz has thrown his splitter 86.5 percent of the time.
But while the splitter is nasty and inevitable, we’re not quite into Mariano-Rivera-cutter territory, (though Cruz refers to the pitch in much the same way that Rivera referred to his signature offering). Rosecrans explains the pitch mix that sets the table for the “gift”: a couple of other fastballs that often behave in unpredictable ways.
For Cruz, the results speak for themselves: He has a 1.74 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in 10 1/3 innings this year, logging 20 strikeouts and five walks.
“Comeback” season for cand family
Chad, Hudson and Amanda Kuhl. (Courtesy of Nikki Shaw Photography)
Things are (still) bleak on the South Side, but if you need something — or more specifically, someone — to root for, Stephen Nesbitt’s story today provides that in spades.
Chad Kuhl is a veteran of seven big-league seasons since 2016; he’s logged 615 innings with the Pirates, Rockies and Nationals. When he was designated for assignment last year, it was the sort of move that sometimes signals the end for a guy who is over 30 with middling results. For Kuhl, however, it was an opportunity to go home and take care of his wife, Amanda.
That February, Amanda underwent a double mastectomy and chemotherapy to treat Stage 3 breast cancer. Nesbitt spoke to the Kuhls about their journey (and we even get quotes from baseball writer and fellow survivor Emily Waldon!).
Nesbitt does a great job of telling the story of a harrowing experience, and the good news that follows: Amanda is in recovery now, and Chad has another job in baseball. He’s currently in Triple-A Charlotte, where he has posted a 3.38 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .222 batting average.
Calling up a 31-year-old pitcher with a career ERA just a touch under 5.00 won’t change the White Sox’s fortunes this year. But I’ll be pulling for Kuhl to get his return call to the big leagues, and to succeed once he gets there.
Handshakes and High Fives
Clay Holmes has been outstanding as the Yankees closer. He’s also due to hit free agency at the end of the year. What’s the plan in the Bronx? Meanwhile, Brian Cashman spoke on several topics yesterday, including DJ LeMahieu’s delayed rehab stint, the team’s lack of depth, and Aaron Judge’s slow start.
On April 2, Shohei Ohtani was eight games into the season and hitting .242/.297/.333 (.631 OPS) with no home runs. Three-plus weeks later, he leads the league in, like, everything. Andy McCullough tells us how the Dodgers staff and players have helped Ohtani in the wake of interpreter Ippei Mizuhara’s gambling and theft scandal.
Kevin Kiermaier is on the IL with left hip flexor inflammation. So the Blue Jays called up prospect Addison Barger, who has played every infield position (plus right field) for his entire minor-league career. He made his big-league debut last night … in left field.
There’s a black hole in Space City. Chandler Rome explores the Astros’ options to fix the lack of production at first base.
Francisco Lindor is heating up.
Last Friday, we highlighted Dan Brown’s interview with Art Schallock, the oldest living MLB player. Happy birthday to Art, who turns 100 today.
And I really loved this article from our friends at FanGraphs — here’s Davy Andrews on the design of the Rays’ “glint” logo.
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(Top photo of Spencer Turnbull: Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
