Vikings-Cardinals preview, predictions: Can Minnesota keep pace in the NFC North?

Only four NFL teams have a better point differential than the Minnesota Vikings, and two of them are NFC North foes.

The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers have already played this week and won. Minnesota has the head-to-head advantage against Green Bay, and Detroit is only a game ahead. For the Vikings to remain in the thick of the conversation down the stretch, they’ll need to beat the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.

The Cardinals are plucky. They have a dynamic quarterback and a creative and underrated defensive scheme. The Vikings, who have home-field advantage at U.S. Bank Stadium, are favored by only three points. As always, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for an in-depth preview.

Live: Coach Kevin O’Connell Press Conference https://t.co/pXpojimzEr

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) November 29, 2024

What I’m watching

Lewis: Sam Darnold. This has little to do with the Vikings signing Daniel Jones to the practice squad. It’s more about what Darnold has been doing of late and what that might mean for the future. The only quarterbacks with more passing touchdowns than Darnold this season are Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield. The only quarterbacks with higher big-time throw rates are Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. When Darnold doesn’t turn the ball over, he is as capable as anyone of explosiveness. And the more explosive he is down the stretch, the higher his value will be this offseason. The Cardinals play a non-traditional defensive structure and have unheralded but savvy personnel. Sunday might require Darnold’s best as a post-snap processor, which will serve as another fascinating data point to the Vikings’ potential ceiling and Darnold’s overall trajectory.

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Krawczynski: Aaron Jones. I haven’t been able to keep my eyes off of him all year long, but he seems to be getting stronger as December approaches. I wasn’t sure how his body would hold up, but his 106 yards and a touchdown in Chicago was an emphatic statement that he is good to go. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Darnold had his best statistical game of the season on a day when Jones was a huge factor as well. Three games ago, Jones averaged 5.2 yards per carry in that slog of a win over the Jaguars. Now he faces a Cardinals defense that is 17th against the run, so there should be some room for him to do his thing.

Biggest concerns

Lewis: Arizona’s offense. Only the Ravens and Lions have higher explosive play rates than the Cardinals in 2024. Arizona does it via the run and pass, too. Kyler Murray has had a phenomenal season. Marvin Harrison Jr. is a vertical and underneath threat. The only tight ends with more catches than Trey McBride are Brock Bowers and Travis Kelce. James Conner is a bulldozer of a running back. And Arizona’s offensive coordinator, Drew Petzing, has put together a dynamic system featuring multiple styles. The Cardinals play with three tight ends on the field more than any team besides the Steelers. The Vikings have shown a willingness to match those types of looks with base defense (heavier personnel), and they may have to again Sunday.

Krawczynski: Playing with fire. The Vikings have been doing it for weeks now. They came out of the gate this season firing on all cylinders, putting together dominant performances and convincing victories. Make no mistake, they took care of business like they needed to do in beating the bumbling Jags, Titans and Bears. But they seemed to mess around with each opponent, making the games harder than they needed to be. Now the schedule gets much more challenging. If they do not increase their sharpness down the stretch against better teams, it’s hard to see them wiggling out of jams like they have the last three weeks.

Most interesting matchup

Lewis: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson versus the Cardinals cornerbacks. Arizona’s defense has the second-lowest pressure rate in the NFL. The more time Darnold has to throw, the longer the Cardinals secondary will be forced to blanket two of the most dynamic receivers in the NFL. Arizona’s starting outside cornerbacks are Sean Murphy-Bunting and Starling Thomas V. Neither can guard Jefferson or Addison in man-to-man coverage. If the Cardinals decide to double both, Hockenson will feast over the middle of the field. If the Vikings offensive line can hold up, all three of the team’s dynamic receiving weapons could be in for big games.

Krawczynski: The Cardinals rushing offense against the Vikings rush defense. Strength against strength. Only five teams in the league have racked up more yards on the ground than the Cardinals. The Vikings, meanwhile, have allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league. Conner, Murray, Trey Benson. Jonathan Greenard, Harrison Phillips, Blake Cashman, Josh Metellus. A juicy matchup. If the Cardinals can get something going on the ground, it will put the Vikings defense on its heels and open things up even more for Murray, Harrison and the passing game. If the Vikings can shut that part of the offense down, forcing third-and-longs, they will be in good shape.

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Most interesting storyline

Lewis: What is the Vikings’ ceiling? Is it the divisional round? The NFC Championship Game? The … Super Bowl? Unlike 2022, Minnesota has play callers in all phases capable of designing creative plans for one-game, do-or-die matchups. That said, the Vikings still turn the ball over too much offensively. Defensively, they’ve been too susceptible to explosive passes. Special teams have been solid but not perfect. The interior of the offensive line leaves plenty to be desired, especially against larger, more menacing fronts. These Cardinals are no joke. By most metrics, they’re an above-average team. This game kicks off a meat grinder of NFC opponents that will go a long way toward answering how far Minnesota can go this season.

Krawczynski: Nick Rallis coming back home. The former Gopher and Edina Hornet returns to U.S. Bank Stadium as the Cardinals’ defensive coordinator. It has been a fast rise up the coaching ranks for the 31-year-old, who has settled in nicely under head coach Jonathan Gannon to help the Cardinals exceed expectations. Rallis was a defensive quality control coach for the Vikings on his way up, and it will surely be an emotional time for the Rallis family as he comes back to try to derail the Vikings’ pursuit of a top seed in the NFC. What kind of tricks does he have up his sleeve to throw Darnold off his game after the quarterback seemed to rediscover his mojo in the last few weeks?

How these teams match up from a data standpoint

Here is where each team ranks in the following categories, using explosive play rate for explosiveness and success rate for efficiency:

Predictions

Lewis: Vikings 26, Cardinals 20. This one scares me more than the last three have because of Arizona’s coaching. Gannon, Rallis and Petzing are sharp and innovative. Murray’s ad-libbing ability adds variance, too. But if the Vikings can stop the run as they have for the majority of the season, I think they’ll be able to do enough offensively.

Krawczynski: Vikings 20, Cardinals 17. In four of the last five weeks, the Cardinals defense has held its opponents to 16 points or fewer. This feels like a brass knuckle fight. Thankfully you all have a few days to digest Thanksgiving dinner, because this could be a stomach-churner.

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(Photo of Aaron Jones: Quinn Harris / Getty Images)