Assuming the Minnesota Twins’ front office can shed enough salary to get under the ownership-imposed $130 million payroll budget and create some spending room, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey made it clear at the Winter Meetings they’d like to add a right-handed bat.
That’s no surprise. Both of the Twins’ projected starting corner outfielders, Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach, are left-handed hitters in need of platoon partners. Switch-hitting first baseman Carlos Santana is a free agent after leading the Twins with 12 homers against left-handed pitchers last season, removing one of the best right-handed bats from the lineup.
With a roster that’s already roughly $10 million over their presumed $130 million budget, the Twins are unlikely to pursue any high-end or even second-tier free agents, regardless of how perfect the fits may be with prominent right-handed sluggers such as Pete Alonso, Teoscar Hernández, Christian Walker and Paul Goldschmidt.
Instead, let’s be realistic about the Twins’ willingness to spend and focus on right-handed hitters who were not included among The Athletic’s top 40 free agents (nearly half of whom have already signed anyway). Looking outside of the top 40, here’s how I’d rank the best first base/corner outfield options for the Twins, beginning with a familiar name.
First basemen:
1. Carlos Santana (38 years old)
2. Josh Bell (32)
3. Justin Turner (40)
4. Donovan Solano (36)
5. Ty France (30)
Last winter, the Twins traded Jorge Polanco in part to clear payroll space to sign Santana for $5.25 million, which proved to be their only good offseason pickup. He played Gold Glove-winning defense and posted a 109 OPS+ with a team-high 23 homers, including hitting .286/.356/.578 versus lefties. Even at 38 years old, a reunion with Santana would make all kinds of sense.
Bell is a far younger switch-hitting alternative with similar power, but the defensive downgrade would be huge. And if the Twins are going to take a defensive hit anyway, they might just go with cheap in-house option Jose Miranda. Turner and Solano are old (and in Solano’s case, an “old friend”) and lack power, but both had a higher OPS+ than Santana or Bell in 2024.
Corner outfielders:
1. Austin Hays (29 years old)
2. Randal Grichuk (33)
3. Ramón Laureano (30)
4. Mark Canha (35)
5. Dylan Carlson (26)
6. Amed Rosario (29)
7. Tommy Pham (36)
Hays and Laureano were late additions to the free-agent market after being non-tendered, joining Grichuk as the top outfield bets listed above. Grichuk consistently crushes lefties, and Hays and Laureano have also done well off them. Hays offers the most upside if pushed into an everyday role by injuries. Laureano is the best defender and capable of playing some center field.
Dan Hayes of The Athletic has mentioned Canha as a possible Twins target, which makes some sense because he’s a well-traveled veteran who can play outfield or first base. However, he’s also 35 and coming off his first below-average OPS+ since 2017. That included slugging under .400 versus lefties for the third time in four seasons. Solid player, but less than an ideal fit.
Third 💣 of the year for Mark Canha! pic.twitter.com/NYO5r4IzbD
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) April 12, 2024
Most and maybe even all of the 12 names listed above figure to be available for modest one-year contracts. Of course, there are valid age, performance and fit reasons for that in just about every case and some might still be out of the Twins’ price range. Miranda, Austin Martin and Michael Helman are cheaper in-house options, and there’s always the trade market as well.
No lottery luck
Two years ago, in MLB’s inaugural draft lottery, the Twins jumped from No. 13 to No. 5 to luck into Walker Jenkins, who is now their No. 1 prospect and a consensus top-10 global prospect.
Unfortunately, the Twins couldn’t duplicate that good fortune in their return to the lottery Tuesday, dropping from No. 14 to No. 16 because the Cardinals and Mariners each lucked into top-six picks.
And it could always be worse, as the White Sox showed. Chicago had the worst record in modern MLB history last season, yet couldn’t pick higher than No. 10 because of the rules regarding consecutive years in the lottery.
They made poor Jim Thome go to the MLB draft lottery and be on TV representing the worst team in baseball history even though the White Sox were ineligible for the #1 pick and couldn’t move higher than #10. pic.twitter.com/EsCplMqC7H
— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) December 11, 2024
While any team in any sport’s draft would prefer to pick as high as possible, moving down a couple of spots in the MLB draft is less meaningful than in the NBA or NFL because there’s significantly more uncertainty involved in the development of players and many first-rounders in the 14-16 range don’t even reach the majors.
In the history of the MLB draft, more collective wins above replacement have actually been produced by No. 16 picks (336) than No. 14 picks (322). Draftees since 2020 haven’t had enough time to do much in the majors, but from 2010 to 2019, the average No. 14 pick has produced 2.7 bWAR compared to 4.7 bWAR for the average No. 16 pick. There’s a lot of randomness involved.
Dropping two spots will decrease the Twins’ available bonus pool by about $400,000, giving them less money to sign the No. 16 pick or later selections. However, they had already secured an extra supplemental first-round pick in the mid-30s and roughly $3 million in extra bonus pool space by virtue of a “competitive balance” pick awarded by MLB to smaller-market teams.
Also of note: Unlike normal picks, competitive balance picks can be traded.
Ranking the Rule 5 pick
I’m still putting together my annual Twins top 40 prospects list, which will be released early next month in all of its 10,000-word glory, but before then I wanted to give a sense of where Rule 5 pick Eiberson Castellano will rank.
Castellano arrives from the Philadelphia Phillies, who decided against protecting him from the Rule 5 draft with a 40-man roster spot, even though the 23-year-old right-hander was named their minor league pitcher of the year a few months ago. And as I wrote the night of the draft, Twins officials were excited to land him after previously attempting to trade for him.
Eiberson Castellano’s career-high 13 strikeouts last night ties for the most strikeouts ever by a High-A BlueClaw 🔥 pic.twitter.com/63Tn50BgIy
— Phillies Player Development (@PhilsPlayerDev) June 1, 2024
With that said, it’s extremely rare for a Rule 5 pick to be a top 10 prospect in any farm system, because those types of players are no-brainers to protect. It’s also worth noting the Twins have a very strong farm system, with both high-end talent and quality depth, so Castellano will naturally slot lower on their list than he would have with the Phillies.
I still need to talk to a few more evaluators about Castellano, but my guess is he’ll be somewhere in the 15-25 range. I’d consider Castellano part of the second tier of Twins pitching prospects, clearly behind their top half-dozen arms but perhaps slightly ahead of 24-year-old right-hander Travis Adams, who was protected from the Rule 5 draft.
I’ll have a lot more on Castellano, and 39 other prospects, in a few weeks.
(Photo of Carlos Santana: Denis Poroy / Getty Images)
