I’ve spent the past month writing about topics meant to set the stage for the Minnesota Twins’ offseason, from roster projections and payroll math to trade candidates and free-agent fits.
Now we’ve reached the point in the offseason when everyone waits for an actual Twins transaction — signing, trade or even mildly intriguing waiver claim — to take the stage. Nothing has emerged from behind the curtain so far, but that could change next week at MLB’s annual Winter Meetings.
Before the baseball world convenes in Dallas starting Monday, let’s open the mailbag and see what’s on your mind about the not-yet-active Twins.
Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.
Would the Twins have any chance to sign Christian Walker if they shed the salaries of Christian Vázquez, Chris Paddack and Willi Castro? — Phillip R.
Unfortunately, questions like this one make me think there are a lot of fans who still need to re-calibrate their expectations for free agency.
Christian Walker is a very good player, ranking No. 15 on The Athletic’s Free Agent Big Board, and he’s likely to sign a multiyear contract worth at least $15-20 million per season. There’s little doubt he’d be an excellent fit for the Twins at first base, but the math just doesn’t work.
Bee-lieve it! Christian Walker’s second homer of the game is a #walkoff for the @Dbacks! pic.twitter.com/tml265wKK0
— MLB (@MLB) May 1, 2024
Right now, the Twins’ roster projects to cost around $140 million, which is $10 million higher than their expected 2025 payroll of $130 million. Bringing in Walker would likely mean shedding $25-30 million elsewhere, even without any other additions. And the aforementioned trio of Vázquez, Paddack and Castro are set to cost about $23 million.
Last offseason, the Twins’ most expensive free-agent addition was Carlos Santana for $5.25 million. My advice to Twins fans this offseason: Assume they won’t sign anyone more expensive than that, let alone someone in Walker’s tier.
All of which is why my recent story analyzing the Twins’ best free-agent fits focused on 15 low-cost options. Sorry. Don’t shoot the messenger, etc.
What are the odds of the Twins going after a free-agent first baseman like Paul Goldschmidt on a pillow contract? — Cole M.
Paul Goldschmidt would be a strong fit, but I’d expect the former MVP to be out of the Twins’ price range even as a 37-year-old in obvious decline.
If he ends up being available for a Santana-level one-year deal, the Twins should absolutely be interested, but that’s true of most of the better-known free agents about whom I received questions. Unless something changes on the payroll front, the Twins aren’t merely shopping for good values; they’re picking through the clearance rack.
What odds would you put on the Opening Day first baseman already being on the 40-man roster? — Mike W.
I realize 50-50 sounds like a cop-out, but somewhere in that coin-flip range.
Depending on the handedness of the opposing pitcher on Opening Day, the Twins’ starting first baseman could be Jose Miranda or Edouard Julien.
There aren’t any other realistic options on the 40-man roster and history suggests the Twins would prefer to add a veteran, whether that means re-signing Santana or bringing in someone else below Walker’s price range.
For whatever it’s worth, the three free-agent first basemen I highlighted as low-cost fits were Santana, Josh Bell and Justin Turner.
From a player’s perspective, how does the potential sale of the team impact free agency and long-term deals? — Karl T.
I suspect there’s little to no impact. Any sale of the team is highly unlikely to be completed this offseason and the Twins are equally unlikely to sign a free agent to a sizable multiyear contract.
If the Twins were looking to sign a high-profile free agent, like a Carlos Correa or even Josh Donaldson, the team being up for sale could be a factor, but no free agent who’s available for a cheap one-year deal is going to care.
What are your thoughts about Austin Hays for this team? — Jeremy H.
Arbitration-eligible players getting cut loose creates a second wave of free agents each offseason, and Austin Hays would be one of the better fits for the Twins from this year’s non-tender group. Hays was projected to make $6.4 million via arbitration, but the Philadelphia Phillies deemed that too much.
Hays is a right-handed-hitting corner outfielder who batted .276/.339/.448 versus left-handed pitchers the past three seasons, including .354/.405/.537 in 2024. He’d work well platooning with the Twins’ projected starting corner outfielders, left-handed hitters Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach.
Welcome to The Bank, Austin! 🔔
Austin Hays has his first @Phillies home run! pic.twitter.com/gpFlPNGfuF
— MLB (@MLB) July 30, 2024
In terms of skill set, Hays is like a younger version of Randal Grichuk, who was on my list of 15 low-cost free agents the Twins should target.
Dylan Carlson, Ramón Laureano and Connor Joe are other non-tendered corner outfielders who could be affordable fits for the Twins in a platoon role.
(Hays has some additional value because it would be fun to see Dan Hayes misspell his last name all season.)
Do the contracts starting pitchers like Frankie Montas and Matthew Boyd have gotten make it more likely Paddack will be traded? — Mike W.
I’m not sure those early pitching signings being for more than anticipated make Paddack more likely to be traded, but they seemingly should make it more likely the Twins could trade him without needing to eat a big chunk of his $7.5 million salary.
Frankie Montas and Matthew Boyd signed two-year deals for $34 million and $29 million, respectively. Teams that missed out on them or similarly priced starters could eventually view Paddack as a relative bargain.
I continue to think it’ll be easier for the Twins to unload the full $7.5 million owed to Paddack than the $10 million owed to Vázquez.
Given what catchers have been getting on the open market, can the Twins even shed any salary by trading Vázquez? — Matt B.
While the early starting pitcher signings suggest the Twins might be able to shed Paddack’s entire salary, the early catcher signings suggest the opposite about the money owed to Vázquez.
Kyle Higashioka got a two-year, $13.5 million deal with the Texas Rangers. Travis d’Arnaud had his $8 million option declined by the Atlanta Braves and then signed a two-year, $12 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels. Jacob Stallings got a one-year, $2.5 million deal with the Colorado Rockies.
If that’s the catcher market for low-end starters or high-end backups, it’s hard to imagine the 34-year-old Vázquez getting anywhere close to a one-year, $10 million deal as a free agent. And by that same logic, it’s difficult to imagine any team wanting to take on his full $10 million in a trade unless the Twins enticed them with other value.
Does the Twins’ front office lack confidence in Jair Camargo as a possible Vázquez replacement? — Gregory B.
Jair Camargo is the Twins’ best upper-minors catching option and appears capable of being a useful backup in the majors if given the opportunity, but there are also reasons to lack confidence in him. Camargo, 25, has never been a top prospect and has batted .237/.308/.457 across two Triple-A seasons.
Catcher is the most defense-driven position, so there’s a very low bar for hitting competence, and arguably an even lower bar for replacing the 63 wRC+ the Twins got from Vázquez the past two years. Camargo has posted an 89 wRC+ relative to Triple-A competition, including a 76 wRC+ last year, so his offense wouldn’t project to be much better than Vázquez’s and his defense is worse.
Just the 7th player to ever hit one over the batter’s eye. @Camargo7Jair crushes this solo homer, his sixth of the season, tying the game at three. He’s the second Triple-A Saints player to homer over the batter’s eye joining Yunior Severino@ticasino pic.twitter.com/Ydv8DG8DRr
— St. Paul Saints (@StPaulSaints) July 7, 2024
Are there ways to compare the level of play in foreign and/or independent leagues to MLB? And do the Twins scout those other leagues? — Adam M.
Translating numbers across levels, leagues and countries was a big focus in the analytics community when I first started writing about baseball 20-plus years ago. Things have come a long way since, thanks to the ever-growing sample of players hopping between countries, as well as using independent leagues in America to showcase themselves to MLB teams.
When a star Japanese pitcher like Yoshinobu Yamamoto signs with the Los Angeles Dodgers, his performance can be used to compare the level of play in each league. And the same is true of former MLB players like Jake Cave or Willians Astudillo signing with Korean or Japanese teams. Every player switching leagues is a data point, including the jump from Triple A to MLB.
This regime has yet to sign a high-profile foreign player — ByungHo Park and Tsuyoshi Nishioka were the previous front office’s doing — but they’re scouting foreign leagues and have projection systems built for them. They also regularly sign independent league players, from Caleb Thielbar and Randy Dobnak to current prospects Payton Eeles and Carson McCusker.
Is there any chance the Twins attempt to get Roki Sasaki? He seems like an easy and cheap way to add a playoff-caliber starter. — Isaac K.
For over a decade, I’ve put out a standing invitation for Rihanna to attend our annual “Winter Meltdown” event during TwinsFest. Seems like an easy and cheap way to add a crowd-pleasing special guest.
I’ll let you know if she brings Roki Sasaki with her.
Do you expect Kody Funderburk or Brent Headrick to be the go-to lefty in the bullpen? — Isaac P.
Last season, the Twins got an MLB-worst 5.75 ERA from their left-handed relievers, so that area of the roster is screaming for an overhaul.
They released Steven Okert and Cole Irvin during the season and Thielbar is a free agent, leaving Funderburk and Headrick as the Twins’ only left-handed relievers on the 40-man roster. In fact, they’re the only left-handed pitchers on the 40-man roster, which has 19 right-handers.
Despite that, I’d be shocked if the Twins were comfortable with Funderburk or Headrick as their top (or only) bullpen lefty on Opening Day. Neither has the track record nor health to warrant that level of trust. If anything, it’s seemingly more likely their 40-man spots may be in jeopardy depending on how the offseason progresses.
Assuming the Twins have at least one lefty in the Opening Day bullpen — certainly not required, but usually recommended — they’re likely to come from outside of the organization.
I’ll also put this out into the world: Oft-injured left-handed starter prospect Connor Prielipp could emerge as a tempting midseason bullpen option if he can stay healthy. He certainly has late-innings stuff.
If you were made king of the Twins for 24 hours but couldn’t change their roster, what’s one thing you’d do to try to get fan interest back? — Alex S.
Just picture this headline: “John Bonnes named new T.C. Bear mascot.”
(Photo of Chris Paddack: Luke Hales / Getty Images)
