And so the worm turns: On Wednesday, an aggregate poll compilation by The Hill/Decision Desk HQ has President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in a statistical dead heat for the November election.
President Biden and former President Trump are now neck and neck, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s (DDHQ) latest average of polls, released Wednesday.
The two rivals are tied at 45.1 percent, based on DDHQ’s average of 658 polls pitting the two against each other in a likely 2024 match-up.
Prior to Wednesday, Trump’s lead over Biden was narrowing and the former president still held at a 0.6 percentage point lead during the day Tuesday. A poll from Echelon Insights showed Biden with a 3-point lead over Trump by Tuesday evening.
Other recent polls include a New York Times/Siena College poll that showed Trump leading by just 1 point, an ActiVote poll showing Trump leading by 6 points, and an Ipsos poll that showed Biden leading by 4 points.
Adding third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy into the mix doesn’t change things much.
When Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is included in polling, Trump has a 0.5 point lead in the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill average of polls. The 120 polls included in the average show Trump at 42.1 percent, Biden at 41.6 percent and Kennedy at 7 percent.
While this may be interpreted as good news for the Biden campaign, some caveats around national polls of this nature should be taken into account.
First, national polling like this, while they may be interesting popularity contests, isn’t necessarily a good predictor of the results of the election. There is no “national popular vote,” despite that often being trotted out (as in the 2016 election) to cast doubts on the legitimacy of an incoming administration. Therefore, a national poll doesn’t really reflect how we elect Presidents, namely, the Electoral College. Taking that into account, a look at the battleground states is a better indicator, and the RealClearPolitics average of top battleground states shows challenger Trump holding a slim but significant lead in all of these states save Pennsylvania, in which President Biden leads by a razor-thin 0.1%.
Second: It’s still too soon. The election is still over six months away; that’s an eternity in politics. There are still too many variables in play, which brings us to:
Third: We are in uncharted waters in this election. We have a President who is suffering from a clear and undeniable physical and mental decline and a challenger who is a former President and has a track record in the White House, but who is also beset on all sides by legal attacks and is at present standing trial in the New York “hush money” case. It’s not at all unlikely that President Biden will be replaced as the Democrat’s standard-bearer, possibly at the Democratic National Convention, possibly sooner if he suffers some health crisis. The polling, to date, has generally not taken that possibility into account.
See Related: New Poll: In the Court of Public Opinion, Trump’s Verdict Is In
Fascinating Poll Shows Another Major Voter Shift That Brings Good News for GOP
There is no telling what might happen in the next few months. I’ve been watching elections like a lot of people watch sports, and have been doing so since Ronald Reagan’s first presidential campaign. I won’t hazard a guess as to what will happen this year. Not yet.
It’s going to be an interesting summer.
