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There will be a day in which Wemby challenges a Zion dunk, and time will stop.

Happy Wembsday!

The Spurs are so good when Wemby plays

Last night, the Spurs (15-54, last in West) lost to the Mavericks (40-29, seventh in West) 113-107, as Kyrie Irving and Luka Dončić were just too much for a young San Antonio squad. Luka didn’t even have a great game, registering just 18 points on 6-of-27 shooting. However, he had 16 assists and 10 rebounds to go with it, and Kyrie dropped an easy 28 points on the Spurs’ backcourt.

Most nights, we’re expecting a Spurs loss and a spirited Victor Wembanyama performance. But it’s crazy to think that his bad games – like the one he had last night – still involve him getting 12 points (3-of-13 shooting), 11 rebounds, three assists and six blocks. Those are his bad games! He just puts up crazy numbers.

Our latest Wembsday celebration involves this graph from Kirk Goldsberry, formerly of the Spurs and of ESPN, prior to the game. Over the previous 15 games, the Spurs had the best defense in the NBA when Wemby was on the court. They were giving up 106.0 points per 100 possessions with the rookie big man playing, but that ballooned to 118.0 points per 100 when he was on the bench (25th).

That’s how impactful Wemby’s presence seems to be defensively. There is a lot of noise in individual defensive rating numbers, and you really have to break down the lineup combinations associated with each player to truly appreciate them. But this chart is quite consistent with the last few months. The Spurs have one of the best defenses with Wemby but become an absolute red carpet to points without him. Did I mention he’s not even averaging 30 minutes per game? He’s 20 years old.

On the season, Wemby is poised to be the second 20-year-old to average at least 20 points, 10 rebounds and 3.5 blocks. The other? Hall of Famer, four-time champion and three-time Finals MVP, Shaquille O’Neal.

More from last night: 

Nuggets 115, Wolves 112: Anthony Edwards recently set the internet on fire, but he couldn’t hit a crucial 3-pointer to lead Minnesota (47-22, third in West) to overtime against Denver (48-21, second in West). No KAT and no Rudy Gobert really put the Wolves in a bad spot against Nikola Jokić. They are a game back of first and must beat Denver soon.

Rockets 137, Wizards 114: While watching this game, the score was somehow knotted up at 76 halfway through the third quarter. The next thing you knew, Jalen Green finished with 42 points, Amen Thompson had 25, and Houston (33-35, 11th in West) led by 20 six minutes later.

Magic 112, Hornets 92: The Magic were up 67-32 at halftime. They put in minimal effort to easily cruise to a win here. Or maybe the Hornets are putting in minimal effort to surprisingly lose by only 20. Orlando (41-28, fifth in East) is half a game behind fourth-place New York (41-27).

Pelicans 104, Nets 91: New Orleans received a very casual, easy 28 points, seven rebounds and four assists from Zion Williamson during this game. And we had this fun alley-oop on the fast break in which Antonio Daniels said, “Throw it up, Naji!” as Joel Meyers casually responded, “Yeah, he will,” as the lob was thrown down by Zion. The Pelicans (42-26) are half a game behind the Clippers (42-25) for fourth.

The Latest From Shams

Embiid, Giannis updates

With the 76ers (38-30) just a half game ahead of Indiana (38-31) for a top-six spot in the East, Joel Embiid returned to practice Sunday as he continues to recover from his meniscus injury.

I’m told the reigning MVP did a lot of non-contact, walkthrough workouts, and he won’t be with the team on its four-game West Coast trip that starts tonight in Phoenix. I noted after the initial injury that Embiid had a six- to eight-week recovery timetable at the time, which would put him back in late March to early April. The Sixers’ hope at this point is that Embiid is able to ramp up at some point in April, though an exact return date is unclear.

Breaking news from this morning: Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo will miss tonight’s game in Boston due to a hamstring injury, league sources tell me. He also missed the Bucks’ win over the Suns on Sunday. Milwaukee (44-24) is a game up on Cleveland (43-25) for second in the East. We’ll keep you updated on the two-time MVP as news develops.

Projections Gone Wrong

Revisiting preseason predictions

In yesterday’s Bounce, we re-examined some of the good predictions from the start of the season. Among the 20 predictions we made (well, I made, but you read them, so you’re accountable too), seven of them were good! But that left 13 predictions that didn’t turn out so hot. Here are the bad ones from our preseason prognostication.

For MVP, we predicted Jayson Tatum. I thought about putting this in the “good predictions” section yesterday because Tatum is still technically a candidate. He’s the best player on the best team and should be in heavy consideration, right? Tatum is fifth in betting odds on BetMGM at +5000, but I’m counting it as a bad prediction because those odds mean he really has no shot at winning it.

For DPOY, we predicted Bam Adebayo. Adebayo’s DPOY candidacy is similar to Tatum’s MVP shot. Adebayo has been spectacular defensively this season and anchors one of the league’s best defenses. And yet, he’s not close to Gobert or Wembanyama in the betting odds. In fact, Jarrett Allen is ahead of Adebayo, who is tied with Anthony Davis. None of those guys have a chance at winning ahead of Gobert or Wemby.

For West Finals, we predicted Nuggets over Lakers. So … I feel pretty good about the Nuggets portion of this. But nothing we’ve seen on even a semi-consistent basis should give confidence that the Lakers will be who the defending champs face in round three of the conference playoffs. We’re not even certain the Lakers will get through the Play-In.

For first to dunk on Wemby, we predicted Scottie Barnes. I thought Barnes would be bold enough to really try it in the first week or two of the season, during the Raptors’ and Spurs’ first matchup against each other. The first true baptism of the lanky Frenchy phenom seemed to happen in early January, when Ja Morant got Wemby.

For steals leader, we predicted Jimmy Butler. Butler has missed so many games (47 appearances in 68 team outings) that he’s not even going to qualify for this. Plus, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and De’Aaron Fox are currently jockeying for position to take the crown.

So, we reviewed seven good predictions yesterday, and we got through five bad predictions today. That’s only 12 of the 20 predictions we made. You know what that means? Tomorrow, we get through our WTF predictions from the preseason.

Goodbye, Blazers

This team needs more direction

The Blazers (19-49, 14th in West) were the fourth team to have their Play-In Tournament pursuits ruined by math, so let’s tie that pretty bow on Portland’s season. It’s time to look toward the offseason and figure out just how long this rebuild might be.

Portland’s bright spot from this season? Anfernee Simons really looks the part of the lead guard they hoped Scoot Henderson would be right away in the post-Damian Lillard era. There’s hope that the recent production from Deandre Ayton is something the team can consistently expect. And the Blazers have a nice role player in Toumani Camara.

MAMA.. THERE GOES THAT MAN pic.twitter.com/92YLsmQdLD

— Portland Trail Blazers (@trailblazers) March 19, 2024

With 21 points so far in tonight’s game, @DeandreAyton has now logged at least 20 points in six consecutive games, marking the longest streak of his career. https://t.co/WMmrCGrtDc

— Trail Blazers PR (@TrailBlazersPR) March 19, 2024

Key free agents for Portland: Moses Brown, Dalano Banton (team option)

Biggest position to address: The Blazers need some dynamic wings to make the jobs of the guards easier on both ends. We’ll see if Robert Williams III and Malcolm Brogdon are around next season. As for now, how do they add wing players and forwards to help out Henderson and Simons?

What’s the draft pick situation? Portland owes its pick to Chicago, but it’s top-14 protected, so the Blazers will keep it easily. They will also receive the Warriors’ pick as long as it doesn’t land in the top four. Those are potentially two lottery picks here.

Will they have cap space? They will not. Portland won’t be able to start realistically thinking about significant cap space until 2026.

Bounce Passes

My latest Power Rankings move the Pelicans up to the contenders tier.

Sam Vecenie’s new mock draft: Will Reed Sheppard be a top-five pick?

NBA League Pass is about to allow people to wager in the app. And Gobert wept.

Read the backstory on Embiid’s Olympics choice and Team France.

Screen Game (All times Eastern)

• Main Screen: Bucks-Celtics (7:30 p.m. ESPN). Milwaukee is still looking for the No. 2 seed, but the Celtics are looking to demoralize a potential playoff matchup. As mentioned, Giannis is out.
• Second Screen: 76ers-Suns (10 p.m.). Both teams are desperate to avoid their respective Play-In Tournaments.
• League Pass Game of the Night: Heat-Cavs (7 p.m.). Miami is a game behind Philly for the No. 6 seed, and the Cavs are a game behind the Bucks for the No. 2 seed. Full schedule here.

(Top photo: Michael Gonzales / Getty Images )