AVONDALE, Ariz. — Chad Knaus’ smile gave away his response before he even said anything.
Knaus, the crew chief on seven championship-winning teams and one of the best of all time, was asked if winning the first race in the semifinal round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs offers a significant advantage.
“How did we do that year?” Knaus responded, referencing the 2016 championship he won with Jimmie Johnson.
“There you go. I guess it was an advantage then,” Knaus said, laughing.
When NASCAR shifted to a four-round, knockout playoff format before the 2014 season, the idea was to create “Game 7 type moments,” where every race within every round carries heightened stakes. A byproduct of this is that when a driver still in the playoff hunt wins the first (or even second) race in the semifinal round, it essentially provides them a bye for the remainder of that round. The outcome of the remaining races in the round matters little, allowing them to focus on preparing for the four-driver championship finale.
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Earning a de facto bye has proven especially advantageous in deciding the eventual champion. Four times in the past eight years, the driver who won the opening race went on to win the championship.
“It’s definitely an advantage to just have a clear headspace and time to prepare,” said Christopher Bell, who made the Championship 4 in 2022 and 2023. “… The Phoenix car is a special car, and if you’re in the final four, it deserves to have more time and effort put into it. So winning that first race is huge. And I noticed that from winning Homestead last year, having that extra week to prepare.”
When Joey Logano won three weeks ago in Las Vegas, the first race of the semifinal round, many within the garage had a sense of “here we go again.” In both 2018 and 2022, the Team Penske driver locked himself into the Championship 4 field by winning the opening race, then went on to win the Cup title. (He also won the first race in 2020, though he did not win the championship that year.)
Considering Logano’s track record, it’s understandable the garage took notice. This road usually ends with Logano standing in victory lane holding the championship trophy.
“There is a huge advantage to winning and being locked in,” said Adam Stevens, Bell’s crew chief. “They earned that.”
Paul Wolfe, Logano’s crew chief, began his preparations for Sunday’s championship shortly after arriving back from Las Vegas. During Penske’s weekly competition meeting, only a brief amount of time was spent reviewing Las Vegas and looking ahead to that week’s race at Homestead.
Instead, the focus was primarily on how to best maximize their performance at Phoenix. Beginning on the Tuesday leading into Homestead, their time was devoted to coming up with a detailed game plan and accompanying deadlines for how the next two weeks would lay out.
“Joey was in the shop on Monday (after Las Vegas), so (we) touched on the high points, but I told him, ‘Let’s focus on what’s more important here,’” Wolfe said. “And then Tuesday morning we were full on.”
Chad Knaus and Jimmie Johnson hoist the 2016 Cup Series trophy. After winning the semifinal opener, they then won the finale in Homestead, Fla. (Robert Laberge/ Getty Images)
Before 2022, crew chiefs had more wiggle room to fine-tune their cars in an effort to squeeze out every last drop of speed. This was the road map Knaus in 2016, Todd Gordon (then-crew chief for Logano) in 2018 and Cliff Daniels (crew chief for Kyle Larson) in 2021 all used to propel their drivers to the championship.
That gray area for crew chiefs shrunk considerably in 2022 with the advent of the Next Gen car, which requires teams to purchase identical parts from a single-source supplier. Now, crew chiefs are even more restricted in what they can do when building their cars.
Still, give any team extra time to focus almost exclusively on one race, particularly one with such heightened stakes, and they’re bound to find something that can provide a performance boost — even if it’s the tiniest thing.
What Wolfe most valued in 2022 went beyond just seeking incremental speed in the car itself. Wolfe had time to pour through all his notes on elements such as pit strategy, brake wear, brake usage, how they should approach the lone 50-minute session of practice, logistics and anything else that might be the difference between winning or losing a championship. Although he would’ve done all this anyway, the time cushion allowed him to be even more thorough. Again, every little bit helps.
“We can go there on Friday when we unload and know that we’ve touched every part and piece and done everything we can do,” Wolfe said. “And that gives you confidence going into the weekend, and you just build off of that. There are so many details these days, so it’s very hard to get an advantage.”
Another benefit Wolfe emphasized was related to the physical and mental well-being of everyone on the No. 22 team. Winning early temporarily alleviates the high stress of competing for a championship, especially in the latter rounds. As every other contender has to think about that week’s race and fret whether they’ll even advance, Wolfe and his group had no such concerns. They showed up to Phoenix feeling reenergized.
“It allows us to do a lot more detailed work without feeling like when we get there on Friday we’re already worn out,” Wolfe said. “Like, we can do all this work, be prepared, go through all the details, make sure we’re bringing our best stuff, but without getting there on Friday and already being worn out. Like we’re going to be fresh. We’re going to be prepared, but we’re going to feel fresh, whereas these other guys are fighting it out right to the end.”
Last year, Kyle Larson secured the early semifinal-round win. But Ryan Blaney won the penultimate race and rode the momentum to the title. (Sean Gardner / Getty Images)
But as nice as it is to win early within the semifinal round, it guarantees nothing. Daniels understands this well.
Daniels would like a do-over on how he and his Hendrick Motorsports team handled things after Larson won at Las Vegas last year in the opening race of the semifinal round. He thought they were well positioned to repeat what they pulled off in 2021, only to fall short in the championship finale.
“Now that I see it in the rear-view mirror, I don’t know that we took all the right steps to prepare the way we wanted to,” Daniels said. “You think you’re doing what you can, you think you’ve got it all covered and, obviously, we missed it. We fell short in Phoenix. Sometimes that happens.”
Larson finished runner-up to Ryan Blaney, who had a more mentally taxing semifinal round while Larson enjoyed a two-week head start. Blaney was on the bubble of not advancing to the Championship 4 all through the bracket, which concluded with him winning at Martinsville, the final race of the semifinal stage.
That victory, though, Blaney says, was a catalyst. Without it, he doesn’t think he and his team would’ve gone on the following week to win the championship.
“Yeah, you want a couple weeks to maybe prepare and stuff like that,” Blaney said. “But there’s only so much you can do to prepare. … I could see both ways. But in our scenario, we were just fired up for seven days and were ready to go to Phoenix. And I think that really kind of just helped us (carry) momentum over into that weekend.”
Just as Logano intends to follow the formula he employed in 2018 and 2022, Blaney is hoping to repeat what he did last year. A week ago at Martinsville, he triumphed in a must-win situation to secure his berth in Sunday’s finale, placing him on a wave of momentum heading into Phoenix as he squares off against Logano, Tyler Reddick (the Homestead winner) and William Byron (who advanced via points).
“I definitely believe in momentum. I believe in confidence and stuff like that,” Blaney said after his Martinsville win. “I think this is the same as last year. You carry it into next week.”
Depending on how a driver made it to the Championship 4 likely shapes his perspective on whether it’s best to win early in the previous round, win late or just simply qualify by whatever means necessary. Blaney represents one end of the spectrum, Logano the other.
But Logano’s path has given him a leg up, one that was certainly less stressful.
“My batteries are recharged,” Logano said, laughing. “Everyone had their tongues hanging out trying to get in.”
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(Top photo of Joey Logano celebrating his 2022 Cup Series title: Chris Graythen / Getty Images)
