It’s six months away from the general election, and the Senate map is looking pretty decent for Republicans to take control of the upper chamber. But we have all seen how the expected red wave in 2022 turned out, which may be why Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is, as the saying goes, managing expectations.

The minority leader is clearly wary of his party overextending itself despite the advantageous conditions after the twin debacles of 2020 and 2022, when former President Donald Trump’s embrace of flawed GOP nominees contributed to surprising Democratic wins. While former Senate GOP campaign chief Rick Scott (R-Fla.) predicted the party would win up to 55 seats in the midterms, Democrats ended up gaining a seat.

So even though Republicans have room to compete in eight states, McConnell said in an interview that he’s primarily focused on four for now. Even from the doorstep of his exit from leadership, the Kentucky Republican is delivering a subtle splash of cold water to Republicans eager for a Senate romp.

The Minority Leader, of course, isn’t the only person out there focusing on the Senate races — but for Senator McConnell, we are again seeing the call for “candidate quality.”

“It’s important to not get too excited, because it’s noteworthy that in the last cycle, not a single incumbent lost. So what’s the message? Candidate quality,” McConnell said in an interview. “It’s important to continue to say you want 51. There’s nothing wrong with getting more, but 51 gives you control. And I think that’s going to be really important, no matter who’s elected president.”

Let’s assume a second Trump administration begins with the new Congress (any alternative is frankly horrible to contemplate) — then the once and former president will need a friendly Congress to get much of anything done. So, yes, 51 gives you control, and with that, the ability to set the agenda — to assign committee chairs, to determine which legislation comes up for a vote and which legislation will die a horrible, twitching death in some antechamber. But 51 isn’t enough; the Senate (and the House) will need, if not a veto-proof majority, which seems unlikely, at least a squish-proof majority. The Senate GOP would have to control that chamber by enough of a margin to lose a few votes and still win.

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So, while 51 would be good, 53 or 54 would be better.

Managing expectations is a good idea, in any case. Republican voters shouldn’t get too confident in an election when turnout is likely to be key. But the GOP should be hammering every vulnerable Democrat Senator, every day, between now and November.

I spent some time in the Army’s supply system, first as a medical logistics puke, then as a battalion S-4. In that system, there is a truism that goes, “Ask for twice what you want, and you might get half of what you need.” That may be what Senate Republicans would be well-advised to do here; keep people a little concerned, keep them planning to vote, push every vulnerable Democrat, focus on keeping every Republican seat. Manage expectations. Don’t get complacent. And as soon as voting opens, start pushing for turnout. Then we may actually see, if not a red wave, then at least a red surge.