Let’s look at a few pitchers who are sell-highs, meaning that you should trade them. Again, I am not saying to cut them. The concept of buying low and selling high is rejected by many as some basic advice that’s not applicable because people are too smart. That is nonsense.
Wanting to get rid of something that’s disappointing and buy something that’s currently valuable is intractable human nature. It always works. There is always a buyer for an over-performing asset and a seller for an underperforming one. The trick of course is having a good sense of who falls into each bucket.
It’s never a big list. And it’s no guarantee that a player who is beating his expected stats or badly trailing them will continue to do so. The contact quality, hits and walks a pitcher allows could change. But we’re dealing with probabilities. It’s more likely than not that these underlying trends will correlate more precisely with actual results. And when that’s the case, we just go all in with no hedging. In other words, if it’s 55/45 that someone will do better, we buy 100% of the time. When it’s the same that someone will do worse, we always advocate selling.
I’m looking at the pitchers here. The hitters are addressed in this separate piece. The expected stats are via Statcast/Baseball Savant.
Sell High
I don’t note roster rates (below), thinking you can get these guys on waivers. They’re listed as a proxy for their desirability in 12-team, mixed leagues (roster rates are via Yahoo).
Reynaldo Lopez, ATL (89% rostered) — Lopez has been insanely valuable. He has a 1.88 ERA. His WHIP is worse but useful still at 1.17. His FIP ERA is 3.08. There’s a good chance a smart manager in your league is going to know his FIP ERA and not his xERA (4.24, 35th percentile, meaning 65% of starters should be better). Basically, Lopez has pitched to the contact quality and hits and walks we expected but just with insane luck. Maybe it’s the Braves defense. That’s the counter. But I never bet on defense — remember, 88% of balls in play are always hits or always outs.
Brady Singer, KC (78%) — His xERA is 17th percentile. I love the ground ball rate. His Ks are average. But he gets hit hard. His expected ERA, which adjusts for ground balls, is 4.88. Bobby Witt Jr. being the best defensive shortstop in the league is helpful, obviously. But even with the grounders, his expected ISO is .188, which is bad. I expect Singer to be below the line for 12-team mixed leagues going forward. So anything you get is gravy since that, by definition, is replacement level. His actual ERA is 3.20. Sell that.
Seth Lugo, KC (92%) — I’m not picking on the Royals, honestly. But come on. We’re not even talking about his stamina here. Even if he doesn’t fade due to the workload, he’s been the luckiest pitcher in the AL. Wins are mostly luck, we know. He’s earned the low walk rate for sure. But he’s exactly average in expected ERA (3.93) while having the best actual pitching run value (actual ERA is 2.48). There is no explanation. But like we see patterns in clouds, we always come up with some half-baked reason for the unexplainable. Occam’s Razor says it’s pure good fortune.
Tyler Anderson, LAA (59%): He’s so borderline. I get that most people will not believe Anderson. But he does have a sub-3.00 ERA (expected is 4.42). The question is whether you want to hold a pitcher with a bad K% and higher than average walk rate when he inevitably crashes. I think cutting him is as good as a trade because you lock in those pitching stats and grab someone at least better, and maybe even good, on waivers. Even a high-K non-closing reliever. Your league will think you’re nuts, but you’ll laugh last (assuming your trade attempts are fruitless, as I suspect).
Buy Low
Pablo Lopez, MIN — I roster Lopez in my biggest league. I want to hurl him into the sun. I get the frustration. But use your head. He’s 72nd percentile in expected ERA. His K% is 84th and walk rate 87th. His expected ERA the past four years: 3.52, 3.75, 3.00, 3.43 (2024). Because of the Ks and walks, he’ll have excellent WHIP value and his ERA going forward should be 3.50, not his actual 5.11.
Zach Eflin, TB — I got pushback last week for having him in my zeroSP column in March. I don’t think he’s a true miss. He’s just been unlucky. There’s no predicting bad luck. Eflin’s expected ERA is 3.24. His xERA the past two seasons: 3.24 and 3.02. He’s doing what we thought, except for the Ks. It does look like his 2023 Ks were an outlier. But remember his xERA is based on his actual Ks, so if they improve to 2023 levels, he’ll be a top 10 starter in the second half. Eflin’s four-seam fastball has a healthy whiff rate near 30%, yet he barely throws it. Maybe this changes. The data the past two seasons says he should junk the cutter, or at least cut its usage in half, boosting his four-seamer instead.
Nick Pivetta, BOS — He’s been hurt. But he has two put-away pitches with the sweeper and slider, and his fastball is very effective/hard to hit. His xERA is not much better than average at 3.74, but that’s still a lot better than his actual 4.18. You really want that 87th percentile strikeout rate. His solid walk rate coupled with those Ks should keep his WHIP around 1.10. Pivetta, if healthy, should be a top 30 starter in the second half.
(Top photo of Reynaldo Lopez: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY)
