If this isn’t exoneration for Shohei Ohtani, it’s as good as it gets, barring some other bombshell. Ohtani’s former interpreter, Ippei Mizuhara, is presumed innocent, but the federal government’s 37-page criminal complaint against him is damning. One of the text messages obtained by the government from Mizuhara to his bookmaker regarding Ohtani – “Technically, I did steal from him” – would appear to be the evidentiary equivalent of a mic drop.

People will believe what they want to believe. In this age of social media and politicized network television, conspiracy theories abound. But Thursday’s developments weren’t the result of a Major League Baseball investigation, which would be more open to skepticism, considering Ohtani’s value to the sport. Nor can they simply be dismissed as Mizuhara “taking the fall” for Ohtani in exchange for a massive payoff, not when the charge of bank fraud comes with a maximum of 30 years in prison.

U.S. attorney Martin Estrada announces charges against Mizuhara in Los Angeles on Thursday. (AP Photo/Ryan Sun)

No, this investigation was the work of the United States Department of Justice, in concert with the Internal Revenue Service and Department of Homeland Security. At a news conference Thursday, U.S. attorney Martin Estrada clearly and emphatically labeled Ohtani a victim, while describing Mizuhara as the player’s “de facto manager” and yes, a perpetrator of massive theft. The complaint against Mizuhara accuses him of stealing more than $16 million from Ohtani to finance what Estrada called the interpreter’s “insatiable appetite” for illegal sports gambling.

According to the complaint, Mizuhara had access to the bank account Ohtani set up for his baseball salary. He refused to provide the same access to Ohtani’s professional advisors, including the player’s agent, Nez Balelo of CAA, saying Ohtani wanted to keep the account private. Mizuhara impersonated Ohtani in conversations with bank officials so he could make wire transfers to his illegal bookmaker. And in 19,000 wagers between Dec. 2021 and Jan. 2024, he won about $142 million gambling and lost about $183 million for a net loss of nearly $41 million. The investigation found no evidence he bet on baseball.

Ohtani, in his one news conference on the matter, said he was unaware of Mizuhara’s gambling. The complaint supports that claim. The government, in reviewing text conversations between Ohtani and Mizuhara, found no discussion of gambling and no authorization of the wire transfers from Ohtani’s account to the bookmaker. If Ohtani is guilty of anything, based upon the complaint, it’s of putting too much trust in a man he considered his friend. Of paying too little attention to his own finances. Of being naive.

None of that is a crime. None of it warrants a suspension from Major League Baseball. Ohtani would not be the first sports legend to be duped out of millions or lose money because of carelessness or mismanagement. John Elway, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Bobby Orr are but three examples.

Mizuhara, though, was not the only one to fail Ohtani. Where, specifically, was Balelo? Agents generally do not act as financial managers. Negotiating contracts and managing millions are separate responsibilities. But if Mizuhara was denying Balelo and other Ohtani advisors access to a particular account, would that not have raised alarms? Or was Balelo simply reluctant to confront or upset Ohtani, fearing his meal ticket might depart for another agent before becoming a $700 million man?

Something else that is curious: Ohtani’s complete ignorance of Mizuhara’s gambling, considering how much time they spent together. The complaint says Mizuhara averaged nearly 25 bets per day with an average of $12,800 per wager over a period of nearly two years. It seems doubtful Mizuhara betrayed no outward emotion while riding his gambling rollercoaster. His text messages with his bookmaker, as related in the complaint, certainly indicated a level of panic.

Perhaps Ohtani was simply too locked in on maintaining his performance as a pitcher and a hitter to notice any change in Mizuhara’s demeanor, if such a change occurred. He certainly seemed comfortable allowing Mizuhara to control many aspects of his life. And he reportedly sleeps as much as 12 hours a day. Obliviousness, while not the most appealing of traits, also is not a crime or grounds for suspension. Ohtani, before his recent marriage, certainly gave the impression he cared about little other than baseball.

Fans will have their say, as they always do. About how much Ohtani knew or didn’t know. About whether he was more involved than the government portrayed. Even about his wife, who came seemingly out of nowhere. Passionate rooting interests – “the guy on my team is innocent, the guy on yours is guilty” – typically inform such discourse. Often, the discourse has no basis in reality.

Ohtani, from the moment the news broke less than a month ago of Mizuhara’s wire transfers to an illegal bookmaking operation, has seemed remarkably unperturbed. He gave a forceful statement at his news conference saying he had no knowledge of how his money disappeared. After a relatively slow start offensively, he is batting .433 with nine extra-base hits and a 1.435 OPS in his last seven games. A hot streak, even by his standards.

Ohtani and Mizuhara at Dodgers spring training in March 2024. (Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)

This story isn’t quite over. The New York Times reported Wednesday that Mizuhara was in negotiations with the government to enter a guilty plea. Such a plea might result in Mizuhara receiving a lesser sentence. The U.S. attorney’s office expects Mizuhara to surrender to federal authorities on Friday, although he will not be asked to enter a plea at the time. A guilty plea might result in Mizuhara receiving a lesser sentence. But it also would provide greater closure, amounting to a public admission of what Mizuhara confirmed to his bookmaker: “Technically, I did steal from him.”

The league issued a statement saying it is waiting for the outcome of the criminal proceeding before determining whether to investigate further. Commissioner Rob Manfred, though, seems likely to get the outcome he wanted, a rapid conclusion to the entire affair, with Ohtani cleared of any wrongdoing.

Not everyone will be satisfied, contending the outcome for Ohtani cannot possibly be this clean. Somewhere on social media, someone will come up with some new theory on what happened, and an undercurrent of skepticism will spread anew. Such is the world we live in. When people want their version of the truth, they go find it, no matter how baseless their beliefs.

The conspiracy theorists, though, are going to need to work hard on this one. For Ohtani, exoneration seemingly is at hand.

(Top photo of Mizuhara and Ohtani in Korea last month: JUNG YEON-JE/AFP via Getty Images)