Just when it appeared Rafael Nadal really might return to competitive tennis before the clay court season, the 22-time Grand Slam champion withdrew from the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells.

“It is with great sadness that I have to withdraw from this amazing tournament,” Nadal said in a statement released through the tournament. “Everyone knows how much I love this place and how much I love to play here at Indian Wells. That’s also one of the reasons why I came very early to the desert to practice and try to get ready.”

In an accompanying statement, Tommy Haas, the tournament director, said, “We are disappointed that Rafa is unable to play in the BNP Paribas Open, but we wish him continued healing and hope he can be back in action again soon. He is one of the all-time fan favorites here, and we hope to see him back in Indian Wells again in the future.”

That may be asking a lot given the tenuous nature Nadal’s health.

On Sunday in Las Vegas, he played an exhibition match against Carlos Alcaraz, collecting what tennis insiders estimate was a seven-figure fee to play in a match billed as the Netflix Slam at the MGM Resort. The Spanish duo played for the better part of two hours, and Nadal showed no outward signs of an injury, but exhibitions are exhibitions played at three-quarter speed at best.

The question remained whether Nadal would play his first-round match at Indian Wells against Milos Raonic of Canada on Thursday night.

That answer came Wednesday night, after more than a week of practice in California and plenty of golf in the desert.

It is with great sadness that I have to withdraw from this amazing tournament at Indian Wells.
Everyone knows how much I love this place and how much I love to play here. That’s also one of the reasons why I came very early to the desert to practice and try to get ready. pic.twitter.com/gmvs5kfGO2

— Rafa Nadal (@RafaelNadal) March 7, 2024

“I have been working hard and practicing and you all know I took a test this weekend but I don’t find myself ready to play at the highest level at such an important event,” Nadal said. “It is not an easy decision, it’s a tough one as a matter of fact but I can’t lie to myself and lie to the thousands of fans. I will miss you all and I am sure the tournament will be a great success.”

For more than a month, the smoke signals out of his camp have been all over the map, sparking predictions of everything from a triumphant spring on the red clay of Paris to him never playing another competitive match again following yet another hip injury in Australia in January.

Nadal appeared to be prioritizing the clay court season in Europe this spring, which he suggested was the case when he returned following a year-long layoff because of hip surgery.

He skipped the Australian Open once he suffered a small muscle tear near his hip three matches into his latest comeback. Logic suggested Nadal would wait until tennis returned to the organic surfaces that are far less taxing on the body and where a brittle, aging player like Nadal, who is 37, would have the best chance of staying healthy.

In the end, logic appears to have prevailed, after he fulfilled his contract with MGM and played the exhibition that was set up for last year, before he suffered the debilitating injury that sidelined him for nearly a year and may yet doom what he once hoped would be a kind of farewell tour throughout the tennis world.

Now the focus turns to the clay, Nadal’s best surface. He has won the French Open 14 times. There is a statue of him swatting his bull-whip forehand outside the main stadium. In recent years, Nadal has shut himself down after Indian Wells for roughly three weeks, to begin honing his timing and conditioning for two months of clay court tennis, where the timing and style of play is markedly different from hard courts. He will have a little extra time this year if in fact he can make it back for the first important clay tournament in Monte Carlo in early April.

Nadal had other incentives to come to Indian Wells. Larry Ellison, the billionaire founder of Oracle who owns the tournament, has become a friend and hosts Nadal at his private resort. That allows him to pursue his other passion, golf. He has been known to play 18 or even 36 holes a day during his time in the desert.

Now that he has pulled out of yet another tournament, there will be renewed discussion of when Nadal might call it quits for good. Last year, he seemed to have decided this season would be his last. Then he showed flashes of his old self during his three matches in Australia and got a taste of the competition he craves.

He has not committed to any hard-and-fast timetable since but he appears to want to play in the Olympic tournament at Roland Garros this summer, the site of the French Open. But he has also signed on to play an exhibition in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in October with Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Holger Rune. That setting would seem like an odd choice for his final matches.

The Davis Cup finals will take place in Spain one month later. Perhaps then? That is, assuming he can make it that far without risking another serious injury. So far, that has proven to be too big an ask.

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(Photo: Candice Ward / Getty Images for Netflix)