Nottingham Forest's defining seven-match run: The games that will truly test their mettle

Nuno Espirito Santo is a man who, by his own admission, likes to save his talking for “good moments”.

With his Nottingham Forest side sitting fifth in the Premier League table after 11 of this season’s 38 games, you would think that the here and now emphatically qualifies as one of those.

Yes, a convincing 3-1 home defeat at the hands of Newcastle on Sunday offered a reminder that Forest are not the finished article yet and left Nuno with plenty to ponder during what will feel like a long final international break of 2024 — his sustained reluctance to talk up what might be possible for his side this season felt justified in the aftermath of that jarring result — but their start to 2024-25 has still been more than most of the club’s fans would have dared to hope for back in August.

Instead of fighting relegation, as they have done for the past two seasons since their long-awaited return to the Premier League, Forest have so far been competing at the top end of the table.

Forest are level on points with third-placed Chelsea and Arsenal, Manchester City’s closest challengers for the title in each of the past two seasons, in fourth. Their fans should not be moping in the days to come before their season resumes with a trip to Arsenal on Saturday, November 23. They should be relishing every moment. The club have not had the opportunity to enjoy such highs — in every sense — since the days under Frank Clark three decades ago.

Over these opening 11 league games of the season, Nuno has done a fine job of suggesting Forest might be capable of taking another step forward.

Forest are averaging 1.73 points per match. Extrapolate that across the full 38 games and you get to 65.6 points — a finishing total which has been enough for European qualification in each of the past seven seasons, a stage they have not graced since those heady days under Clark.

We all know securing a spot in the Europa League or Conference League for 2025-26 is not as simple as that — far from it and certainly not when there are still 27 games to play. The more grounded priority remains to get to the 40-point mark that effectively rules out relegation before daring to consider more lofty aspirations. That Newcastle match was a stark reminder of what can happen if you have even a slight off day at this level.

But while Forest’s performances in the first quarter of the season have not achieved anything tangible, they have allowed people to reevaluate what might be possible over the coming months.

And when it comes to where the line sits between hope and reality for Forest, we will have a better idea of what might be a rational target by late December — because their seven fixtures between now and bedtime on Boxing Day should provide an accurate barometer of their progress.

It’s the toughest run of games this rejuvenated and confident group of players have faced yet. Away games do not get any more challenging than visits to the Emirates Stadium, the Etihad Stadium and Old Trafford, despite Manchester United’s stuttering recent form. The Gtech Community Stadium does not have the same intimidating history as that trio of trophy-laden venues but Brentford have the best home form in the division, with five wins and a draw from six games.

Ipswich possess the same honest spirit Forest had in that first season following promotion under Steve Cooper in 2022 and, even at the City Ground, should not be underestimated. And, in many ways, Champions League side Aston Villa should be viewed as the perfect example of what might be possible for Forest, as they are among the six clubs within three points of Nuno’s men in places six through 11 of a hugely congested table.

Frankly, who knows what will happen against a remarkably unpredictable Tottenham side who have won five and lost five of their 11 games but they are still the level of opposition Forest are seeking to prove they can mix it with as something like equals.

It is easy to be reactionary or revisionist in the aftermath of defeats such as the one last weekend.

Some might suggest that Forest’s fixtures over the first three months of the season might have been more challenging, for example. But to counter that, they won in memorable fashion against Liverpool at Anfield and claimed creditable draws away at Brighton and Chelsea, despite being reduced to 10 men in both games. The 11 points Forest have taken on their travels is only bettered by Liverpool, the current league leaders, with 13.

Forest will no longer go into these sorts of matches believing that for them to emerge victorious, they will have to be at their very best, while hoping the other team have an off day. They have proven that when they perform to the best of their ability, they are capable of giving anybody a good game. They are as competitive as they have been at English football’s elite level in three decades.

There isn’t a set number of points to be gained from these fixtures that will indicate whether Forest deserve to be in the conversation about teams who can secure a European place when the music stops next May.

Maintaining something close to their 1.73 points per game average over this run would certainly deliver a message but, as Nuno might say himself, it is more about performances; about continuing to prove that their position is not a false one.

Nottingham Forest have enjoyed a superb start to the season (Carl Recine/Getty Images)

In September, Forest were poor at home against Fulham but might still have got something from a game they lost, 1-0. They were also very poor in the second half against Newcastle, who were simply the better side on the day. Otherwise, they have looked like a team capable of far more than what this club have achieved in the past two years. Securing that first European place since the mid-1990s absolutely remains a hope, rather than an expectation, but it does nevertheless feel as though the dynamic has changed at Forest, and that could be huge on so many levels.

When Forest look to strengthen again, both in January’s transfer window and next summer, they will be a more attractive prospect for potential signings. They will no longer be seen as a club who can only aspire to stave off relegation back to the EFL. They can also help players to develop and improve — as shown by Morgan Gibbs-White being called up by England again this month and Murillo’s elevation to the Brazil squad. It also may be easier to convince players such as those two that they can achieve their ambitions with Forest without having to ponder moves away if they wish to progress their careers.

The good moments keep mounting up and, while that continues, Forest’s dreams will only have a better chance of becoming reality.

(Top photo: Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)