Throughout the season I’ll be breaking down the numbers behind the race for each major player award: the Hart, the Norris, the Calder, the Selke, the Vezina, the Art Ross and the Rocket Richard. Numbers of course aren’t everything, but they add much-needed context to the awards race and can help shine a light on players deserving of more recognition while adding caveats to other players that may have some warts. This post will present the top 10 for each category based on a set criteria of guidelines. There is plenty of room for discussion and debate within (and outside) those guidelines.
This is it, the final awards watch. There are a lot of intriguing races that may go down to the wire and a lot of difficult decisions are still on the table to be made. For some awards, it may end up being a photo finish.
Let’s get right into it. Based on my interpretation of the numbers, here’s what I think about each awards race.
Data as of April 14
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Hart Trophy
Given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team.
Criteria: Skaters ranked by Net Rating, adjusted by position
The Hart Trophy decision this year is the toughest it’s probably ever been with four extremely worthy candidates. One of them will not be a finalist despite putting up a campaign that would’ve been enough to win almost any other year. Each of the four would be a very worthy winner, here’s the reason to vote for each — or vote against.
Nathan MacKinnon — the most valuable player
By the letter of the law, no player has delivered more value than Nathan MacKinnon with a Net Rating of plus-32.5. Value to his team is all the same regardless of what the rest of the team does and MacKinnon added the most.
He may not have the most goals, assists, or points. He may not drive offense best. He may not provide the most defensive value. But he does offer the best balance across the board in every facet. MacKinnon is a dominant force every night and though he has a lot of help with who he plays with, he’s managed to easily stand alone above the rest of the Colorado Globetrotters. His Net Rating is 14.5 goals better than Colorado’s next-best player Mikko Rantanen, second to Auston Matthews among contenders. He is the driving force.
MacKinnon may not have the best case in any one category, but he never has the worst one. That may be his most compelling argument among a group that has at least one real reason not to vote for them.
Auston Matthews — the most complete player
Of the four candidates here, Matthews lags behind offensively. Yes, he has 69 goals which is 18 more than MacKinnon, but he’s still well behind his peers here in points. A lot of that is based on the other three having more secondary assists, but Matthews is still fourth in production even after accounting for goals being most important.
For Net Rating, I weigh primary assists at 93 percent of a goal and secondary assists at 73 percent of a goal on the basis of frequency. The scoring race tightens with relative importance accounted for, but it is still Matthews in fourth.
Nikita Kucherov: 126.5
Nathan MacKinnon: 124.3
Connor McDavid: 115.5
Auston Matthews: 101.5
The better argument for Matthews comes down to support. It’s easier to get assists passing to Brayden Point, Mikko Rantanen and yes, Zach Hyman, than it is to Mitch Marner. It’s also easier getting to play more often with those players. Matthews has only spent 57 percent of his minutes with Marner — his only teammate above 50 percent. MacKinnon and McDavid both spend a lot of time with a stacked five-man unit, while Kucherov always has Point on his side (and usually Victor Hedman too). Couple all that with Toronto’s offensively weak defense corps and Matthews’ degree of difficulty on offense is substantially higher than everyone else’s.
Some food for thought for the MVP race.
How good the top four have been offensively compared to how good their average linemates have been.
That Matthews has kept up despite having less support is impressive. pic.twitter.com/7Y6nWfCK1j— dom 📈 (@domluszczyszyn) April 10, 2024
Accounting for that closes the gap between him and the rest offensively, but it’s his work defensively that has him second in Net Rating. His best case is that he’s close enough offensively to the other three while sacrificing nothing without the puck in very tough minutes. He’s a Selke-caliber shutdown center who might hit 70 goals this season — an extremely rare blend of talent.
It’s easier to create offense without having to pay attention to the little things without the puck that work to create elite defensive value. That Matthews does that while being a strong 200-foot player, all without a ton of help around him makes him the league’s most complete player this season.
Connor McDavid — the best player
Connor McDavid is the best player in the world. That was true before the season, remains true after the season, and was true during the season. On a per-game basis, no player had a better Net Rating and he’d have the lead on MacKinnon if he played the same amount of games. If the most valuable player is the best player, McDavid is the right choice. His 62 percent of the expected goals leads the field, his point rate is second highest, and his penalty differential is well above the others. His play-making this season was so good he turned Hyman into a 50-goal scorer. And all of this was after starting the season ice-cold.
But in the NHL, games played do matter to voters. If total value is what matters most, McDavid is third thanks to the games he missed. While he may have a lot of assists, his 31 goals is well below the mark of the other contenders. Those are mostly quibbles though. The biggest red flag against McDavid is how much more help he’s had this season than the other three. His direct supporting cast (of players he actually plays with) has a much higher average Offensive Rating than the other three guys here.
That is to be expected for a player of McDavid’s caliber as he makes them better with his all-world ability. But even accounting for that puts his offensive teammate quality 1.5 goals above expected. That’s actually right in line with MacKinnon, but much more than Kucherov (minus-0.4) and Matthews (minus-3.9).
Nikita Kucherov — the most productive player
Just like there’s already an award for most goals, there is already an award for most points. Matthews doesn’t get the Hart just because he wins the Rocket Richard and Kucherov doesn’t get the Hart just because he (likely) wins the Art Ross Trophy.
Still, points do tell us a lot about a player’s individual offensive ability and Kucherov leads the way there. His 141 points is tough to mess with and for voters, that will be very tough to ignore. Winning the scoring race is a big feather in his cap. Kucherov does indeed have a lot of points against an empty net, but that’s balanced out by the fact that he does really well against tougher opponents (with a goalie in the net). The same of which can’t be said to the same degree for MacKinnon and McDavid.
The major qualm against Kucherov is his impact at five-on-five which really pales against the other three to the point that “he scores a lot of points” is generally his best and frankly only argument. He has so many that it is a compelling one, but it’s worth noting he’s fourth on the list in terms of five-on-five primary points.
That helps explain how he’s fourth among the four major candidates in goals per 60 at 3.72, but that’s not even his biggest issue at five-on-five; it’s his defensive ability. Kucherov has been on for only 52 percent of the goals and expected goals this season and it’s because of how much he gives back the other way. The other three are all above 60 percent of the goals and 55 percent of the expected goals. Kucherov indeed has the least defensive help thanks to Tampa Bay’s porous blue line, but he hasn’t helped matters and that does put some context toward his offense. It’s a bit easier to score the most points when one end of the ice is a bit more optional compared to how the other three candidates treat it.
Kucherov winning the Hart Trophy wouldn’t be egregious by any means — 141 points is still 141 points. The other three just have stronger arguments beyond point totals.
As for the fifth slot, there is a lot of love for Connor Hellebuyck, deservedly so. But the two big-time defensemen — Quinn Hughes and Roman Josi — have been just as valuable relative to their position this season. They deserve to be in the mix.
GO DEEPER
What’s the Hart Trophy case for MacKinnon, McDavid, Kucherov and Matthews?
Norris Trophy
Given to the defenseman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position.
Criteria: Defensemen that play top-pairing minutes ranked by Net Rating.
Quinn Hughes has been the best defenseman this season and will very likely win his first Norris Trophy this season. But anyone saying it’s an open-and-shut case or that it’s not even close is doing a disservice to Roman Josi who has put himself right there with Hughes thanks to a dominant second half.
Offensively, the edge belongs to Josi which may surprise some due to Hughes’ six-point lead in scoring. That gap though is closed when factoring in that the difference is entirely secondary assists. Josi has six more goals and four more primary assists than Hughes, while also generating more expected goals himself. In terms of relative metrics, Nashville earns more expected goals with Josi than the Canucks with Hughes, but there’s a slight lean back toward Hughes for generating more goals.
All of that has the two coming out pretty even, but what tips the scales in Josi’s favor is he does it with less help. Filip Forsberg has been great, but the Canucks have two dominant top lines that Hughes gets to play with — and a stronger power play. Both defensemen are the ones driving the bus, but the degree of difficulty makes what Josi is doing offensively more impressive.
Things swing back in Hughes’ favor defensively though where he plays tougher minutes and earns stronger results by both expected and actual goals against. Josi does block a lot of shots which aids his Defensive Rating, but Hughes’ impact on on-ice results carries more cache. Over the last two seasons, he’s become a very reliable presence in that realm.
Hughes is probably the better choice, but it’s closer than the province of British Columbia will tell you.
Sandwiched between the two is Evan Bouchard, but there’s a reason he’s not quite in the same conversation: he’s not the driver in Edmonton. The fact that Bouchard’s partner, Mattias Ekholm, is on this list is the first clue toward that. That he frequently plays with a Hart Trophy candidate instead of being one himself is the second clue.
Bouchard is elite and considerably better than he’s given credit for. He gets disrespected far too much because he plays a lot with McDavid and makes his fair share of defensive blunders. But his numbers both with and without McDavid are spectacular, better than any other defensemen on the team. That he’s ascended to this level is part of the reason McDavid has ascended to his own higher plane — he has a lot more support than usual. It’s reminiscent of the way Kris Letang was treated during his peak years, usually for similar reasons. He was made otherworldly thanks to Sidney Crosby, but was elite in his own right and deserving of Norris consideration often throughout his career. Bouchard is at that stage now.
He is third or worse though, that should be clear. It comes back to which players stir the drink.
Quinn Hughes
Net Rating: plus-24.8
Next best player: J.T. Miller, plus-18.8 (6.0 goals lower)
Defense partner: Filip Hronek, plus-9.6 (15.2 goals lower)
Roman Josi
Net Rating: plus-24.5
Next best player: Filip Forsberg, plus-19.1 (5.4 goals lower)
Defense partner: Ryan McDonagh, plus-12.5 (12.0 goals lower) and Dante Fabbro, plus 2.3 (22.2 goals lower)
Evan Bouchard
Net Rating: plus-24.8
Next best player: Connor McDavid, plus-30.6 (5.8 goals higher)
Defense partner: Mattias Ekholm, plus-18.4 (6.4 goals lower)
The usage adjustments I’ve added to the model in the last month do account for that to an extent, but it’s still hard to vote for Bouchard over two guys who are The Guys on their team. The other two also have a much more even distribution of ice time with their team’s forwards compared to Bouchard who spends a lot of time with McDavid.
To Bouchard’s credit, his case is a lot stronger to be third compared to someone who’s usually at the top of these lists. Cale Makar is still the best defenseman in the world, but this has been an off-year for him due to playing through an injury for most of the season. Every argument against Bouchard is an argument that is even stronger against Makar. His best teammate has added more value than McDavid and his Net Rating is even closer to his usual partner Devon Toews. He also spends a lot of time with MacKinnon.
In more concrete terms, Makar has just 53 percent of the expected and actual goals this season, well below Bouchard’s 61 percent. Defensively they’ve been on the ice for a similar volume of chances, but more have gone in against Makar — with Bouchard being on the ice for much more offensive volume to make up for it. The biggest difference though is how the two look away from their MVP teammates.
Evan Bouchard with Connor McDavid
TOI: 817 min
Goals: 63 percent
Expected Goals: 64 percent
Evan Bouchard without Connor McDavid
TOI: 603 min
Goals: 56 percent
Expected Goals: 56 percent
Cale Makar with Nathan MacKinnon
TOI: 888 min
Goals: 57 percent
Expected Goals: 55 percent
Cale Makar without Nathan MacKinnon
TOI: 399 min
Goals: 41 percent
Expected Goals: 49 percent
MacKinnon’s numbers are also much stronger without Makar this season. The same can’t be said for McDavid whose numbers drop without Bouchard into the same range Bouchard is without him.
Other defenders that are worth mentioning: Josh Morrissey has been even better this year than he was last year, Adam Fox has been excellent as usual, and Gustav Forsling and Drew Doughty have been the league’s best defensive defensemen.
Selke Trophy
Given to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game.
Criteria: Forwards who play over 15 minutes per game, receive 15 percent of their team’s short-handed minutes and face above-average forward competition, ranked by their Defensive Rating.
This trophy has belonged to Aleksander Barkov all season and it’s unlikely anything changes now. He has his second Selke Trophy sealed up, and deservedly so with some incredible defensive numbers. The Panthers allow just two expected goals against per 60 and 1.5 goals against per 60 on the ice, both among the very best marks in the league. He did that against some of the toughest competition in the league and was also a key cog on Florida’s top 10 penalty kill. He leads teammate Sam Reinhart in Defensive Rating by 0.1, though that’s in nine fewer games.
Reinhart being Barkov’s linemate shouldn’t take him out of consideration either. He’s a critical defensive mind on the team’s top line and the duo works incredibly well together to shut down opponents’ best. The Brad Marchand to Barkov’s Patrice Bergeron. Marchand never got the requisite down-ballot Selke love he deserved in the past, but that’s not a wrong that needs to be continued here. There’s room for Reinhart on the ballot with how strong his defensive chemistry has been with Barkov.
Still, it would be understandable if Reinhart is left off to spread the wealth to other worthy candidates on other teams. Between Jordan Staal and Seth Jarvis, there are two strong choices on the Hurricanes. Anze Kopitar is never a wrong answer and Roope Hintz is staking claim on being the right answer for years to come. Adam Lowry is a vintage shutdown third-line center who drives the bus well in Winnipeg’s bottom six. Jason Dickinson having positive defensive results on Chicago while soaking up the toughest minutes feels like a miracle that deserves a lot of love too.
But the most interesting name on the list is the guy who might score 70 goals this year. Auston Matthews is the real deal defensively on top of the bucket of pucks he puts into nets each season. He plays extremely tough minutes in Toronto without a lot of defensive help, blocks a lot of shots and has the requisite on-ice impact to earn one of the strongest Defensive Ratings in the league. All while only taking four penalties all season. He hasn’t been much of a Selke contender in the past due to a lack of penalty-killing time, but that’s changed this season — at least enough to qualify.
On top of being the league’s best goal scorer, Matthews deserves some serious recognition for what he is beyond that: One of the league’s very best forwards without the puck.
GO DEEPER
Selke Trophy deep dive: How should it be interpreted? Who should be considered?
Calder Trophy
Given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the NHL.
Criteria: Rookie skaters ranked by Net Rating, adjusted by position.
Throughout the year this has been a two-horse race between Connor Bedard and Brock Faber. Bedard has the tantalizing offensive production, Faber has the sturdy defensive prowess — both impressive achievements as rookies in big roles. That they’ve mostly succeeded despite the difficulty of their jobs is why they lead the race (and why we can mostly ignore the other guys in between).
That Faber is right there in the conversation as a defensive-minded shutdown type is a rarity, but so too is a first-year player playing 25 minutes per night. Adding 45 points of his own shows he’s got some offensive chops.
But to beat Bedard, the evidence had to be overwhelmingly in favor of someone else. I don’t believe it is for Faber anymore.
Halfway through the season, Faber had a much stronger case with a plus-4.8 Net Rating through 38 games. He was on the ice for 54 percent of the expected goals and 59 percent of the actual goals with decent relative impacts. Both were near the top among Wild defensemen. With Bedard’s weak defense weighing down his strong offense, the gap between the two — a full season pace of 11.7 goals, nearly two wins — felt significant enough to make the race competitive with a lean toward Faber. He looked like a true No. 1 succeeding in his role, while Bedard struggled in his (as difficult as it was).
Since then Faber is still playing big minutes, but he’s not succeeding in them to anywhere close to the same degree. His expected goals rate dropped to 50 percent, last among Wild defensemen and his 43 percent goal rate ranks fifth. Defensively, he’s been among the team’s most porous players in the second half. Faber has played tough minutes with Jake Middleton so he does have some excuse for weaker numbers, but not enough to add much value to where he was at three months ago. His Net Rating is essentially the same as it was three months ago.
Bedard on the other hand has seen his Offensive Rating surpass his Defensive Rating, enough to bridge the gap between him and Faber to four goals. That’s less than the difference between MacKinnon and Kucherov for example, a ballpark that’s well within the range of uncertainty. A 3.7-goal difference means Faber has probably been more valuable than Bedard, but not definitively so. A good rule of thumb is anything within one win (six goals or so) is pretty fair game for debate. Numbers aren’t gospel, they’re a guideline. That’s especially true if there are extreme circumstances at play.
That’s been the case with Bedard all season where he’s been on his own island. Net Rating accounts for competition and teammates better now, but at the extreme ends, it still may be too much to overcome to account for properly.
One key clue to how that affects Bedard this season is how he played on the wing in a very brief stint with Jason Dickinson. It was only 55 minutes, but that line earned 61 percent of the expected goals and 69 percent of the goals in their time together. That shows what Bedard is capable of with less responsibility on the wing and more support from a competent linemate.
Bedard has a lot of bad defensive minutes this season to counter that and be a legitimate red flag in his Calder case. But those minutes with Dickinson leave the door open to suggest that it might have been driven by playing a position he wasn’t ready for at the NHL level. Perhaps that shouldn’t be held against him. How much stronger are Bedard’s on-ice numbers if he spent more of the season on the wing?
Bedard managing to score at a 75-point pace despite how much time he spent without the puck — even if that was partly his own doing — and who he had to play with is just too impressive to ignore. With Faber’s game looking middling in the second half, the gap between the two just doesn’t feel large enough anymore to vote against Bedard.
As for the rest of the ballot, some solid options are lining the top five in Net Rating. Tyson Foerster was a defensive workhorse for the Flyers in a big role, Luke Hughes put up similar value to Faber albeit in a more sheltered role, Connor Zary was a nice surprise in Calgary, and Marco Rossi showed he can be a capable top-six center. All strong options … after the big two.
Vezina Trophy
Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position.
Criteria: Goaltenders that have played half of their team’s games or more ranked by goals saved above expected courtesy of Evolving Hockey and MoneyPuck.
There were a lot of razor-thin awards races this season — this wasn’t one of them. The Vezina Trophy was Hellebuyck’s to lose all season and he didn’t lose his grasp on it for even a second. Using an average of Evolving Hockey and MoneyPuck’s goals saved above expected models, Hellebuyck likely finishes the season almost 15 goals clear of the next-best goalie. This race wasn’t even close — Hellebuyck was the best goalie in the world this season saving 32 goals above expected over 59 games. That’s over half a goal per game.
I mentioned in the last edition that Thatcher Demko has likely done enough this season to end up a Vezina finalist and that statement holds true. Vancouver’s shaky goaltending without him might have even furthered his case, and it helped that no other goalie in the race found a way to surge ahead of him.
As for the rest of the ballot, there’s a strong case to be made for Jacob Markstrom, either or both of Boston’s goalies and Jordan Binnington. All have been very strong this year, but it is telling that aside from Hellebuyck, the rest of the Vezina crop doesn’t look as strong as usual.
Art Ross Trophy
Given to the player who leads the National Hockey League in scoring points at the end of the regular season.
Criteria: Skaters ranked by their projected end-of-season point total.
It all comes down to Kucherov (141) and MacKinnon (137). Normally, Kucherov’s four-point lead would feel pretty safe, but with the way these two have been scoring this season no lead is ever truly safe.
Kudos to Kucherov for really ramping up his production of late to take this race over. He’s put up 34 points over his last 15 games to earn his current lead.
Rocket Richard Trophy
Given to the NHL’s top goal scorer.
Criteria: Skaters ranked by their projected end-of-season goal total.
Matthews has had this trophy wrapped up since October. The only question that remains is whether or not he hits 70 goals. He only needs one goal in his final two games — should be no problem for him.
— Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick and Corey Sznajder’s All Three Zones project
(Top photos of Auston Matthews and Nathan MacKinnon: Kevin Sousa / NHLI via Getty Images and Andrew Wevers / USA Today)
