Welcome back for another season of fantasy football speculation, using our patented data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s waiver wire headliners… today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure statistics in regard to volume, depth, and efficiency. Then I mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap fantasy gems to grab now before the squares do. Then for all the last-minute managers on-the-go, I’m adding a new section — “Sunday’s Streaming Service” — to help plug 11th-hour holes in leagues with first-come free agency.
Quarterbacks
As I started gathering obscure data, I realized something. The shallow nature of the player pool at the onesie positions (QB/TE) actually allows me to chart all available free agents rather than isolate certain stats. In searching for a fantasy quarterback, of course we need volume, but also the willingness the push the ball downfield, so I combined total dropbacks with air yards per targets (below). In a single game sample, I’d lean more into depth of targets, but the player best checking this box is still (audible sigh) Deshaun Watson. I’ve been of the mindset that Cleveland’s shot-caller is dust, but if your chasing volume plus depth, he’s your man.
Volume is not everything, and if you share my concerns for Watson, you’re looking for another exit. I decided to combine my favorite advanced input stats, EPA/Attempt and expected completion percentage to better describe which available QBs are currently playing well (below). While Gardner Minshew is running away with the top honors through this lens, his 4.5 AY/Att works as a disqualifier for me — that’s taking the term check-down artist a little too far. Shimmy over to the left on the graph just a bit and you find Sam Darnold, my clear choice for top speculative add at QB. Michael Salfino and I (two beleaguered Jets fans) tried to tell everyone on Twitter that Darnold possessed the best combo of skill, weapons and system to finish as a Top 8 quarterback.
Running Backs
Since we’re coming to you after the first run of waivers, I won’t repeat the usual suspects — we’re here to get weird. That said, make sure J.K. Dobbins, Jordan Mason, Justice Hill, Zach Charbonnet, and Alexander Mattison have a home before you go dumpster diving with us deep-leaguers. Last year I proved success by pivoting away from the lowest hanging fruit in total touches. Instead I’ll frame utilization a little differently with touch per snap rate, which offers a unique perspective on frequency without volume being necessary. Then I’ll get out the microscope for any widely unrostered ball carriers showing top-tier efficiency in terms of fantasy points per snap. Helpful hint: if a player shows up on both lists, we probably need to prioritize them as a speculative add.
8 Available RBs w/+40.0% Touch Per Snap Rate (min 4 Touches)
6 Available RBs w/+0.40 Fantasy Points Per Snap
- Ray Davis, BUF — 0.62 FPS/Snap
- Jamaal Williams, NO — 0.55 FPS/Snap
- Bucky Irving, TB — 0.48 FPS/Snap
- Emanuel Wilson, GB — 0.45 FPS/Snap
- Tank Bigsby, JAX — 0.43 FPS/Snap
Always focused on the clearest pathway to a featured role in a plus offense, I’m torn here between my two favorite backup options. Both Tank Bigsby and Bucky Irving look great so far, with a chance to grab the lion’s share of touches. Since both meet the standards for a bench spot, I’d go with Irving by a nose based on matchups, but rank them both among the best handcuffs in the league.
Wide Receivers
Like RBs, just make sure this week’s universal adds Keon Coleman, Ladd McConkey, Rashid Shaheed, Greg Dortch, and Allen Lazard belong to a squad already. With that out of the way, every sharp fantasy manager knows targets are earned — it’s precisely why talent level matters so much at the position. Earning targets is the carrying tool for WR speculation — the opportunities will come. And while playing time is nice, it’s not enough. Snap counts are a decent measure for wideout usage, but routes run test better. Do we really care if our guy is out there blocking downfield? I don’t. So let’s see who has both run a dozen routes and earned an above average amount of looks while doing it.
14 WRs w/ +14 Routes and Earned +17% Targets Per Route
- K.J. Osborn, NE — 14 Rtes, 42.9% TPRR
- Ray-Ray McCloud, ATL — 19 Rtes, 37.0% TPRR
- Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG — 36 Rtes, 33.3% TPRR
- Greg Dortch, ARI — 26 Rtes, 31.0% TPRR
- Xavier Legette, CAR — 23 Rtes, 30.0% TPRR
- Devaughn Vele, DEN — 29 Rtes, 28.0% TPRR
- Jauan Jennings, SF — 18 Rtes, 27.8% TPRR
- Quentin Johnston, LAC — 23 Rtes, 22.0% TPRR
- Jonathan Mingo, CAR — 23 Rtes, 21.7% TPRR
- Tyler Johnson, LAR — 33 Rtes, 21.0% TPRR
- Josh Reynolds, DEN — 41 Rtes, 20.0% TPRR
- Dontayvion Wicks, GB — 16 Rtes, 18.8% TPRR
- Olamide Zaccheaus, WAS — 17 Rtes, 17.6% TPRR
- Andrei Iosivas, CIN — 35 Rtes, 17.1% TPRR
If I’m looking to bandage the loss of Puka Nacua, I’d stay right in the “City of Angels” for my replacement just to stay attached to Matthew Stafford. I prefer Demarcus Robinson because we’ve seen him do it before, but Tyler Johnson should produce immediately as well. I shared their route trees (below) if you’d like a closer look, but keep in mind that both should play plenty since the Rams posted a 100% 3-WR rate in Week 1.
Tight Ends
Remember to make sure this week’s top adds Isaiah Likely and Colby Parkinson aren’t floating around first. It was a rough start for the game’s most sluggish position, but I refuse to capitulate to the TE agnosticism. Fine, this may very well wind up as an exercise in futility, but there’s no retreat and no surrender in these fantasy streets. We’ll eventually incorporate high-value red zone targets once the sample expands, but for now a half-dozen tight ends earned their fair share of targets at an above average depth.
6 TEs w/+10% Team Target Share and +7.0 Air Yards Per Target
- Foster Moreau, NO — 16.7% Team Tgt%, 8.8 AY/Tar
- Zach Ertz, WAS — 16.7% Team Tgt%, 7.0 AY/Tar
- Mike Gesicki, CIN — 13.8% Team Tgt%, 7.0 AY/Tar
- Juwan Johnson, NO — 12.5% Team Tgt%, 14.0 AY/Tar
- Hayden Hurst, LAC — 12.0% Team Tgt%, 10.3 AY/Tar
- Theo Johnson, NYG — 10.5% Team Tgt%, 8.3 AY/Tar
Must be the aftershock from best ball brain rot, but Juwan Johnson should not be widely available. The former WR would have been considered a Top 12 TE had he not had offseason foot injury, and his Week 1 TD tells me he feels fine. I expect him to slowly take over more and more volume as he gets his feet underneath him.
Week 2 Sunday Streaming Service (>25% Rostered)
- QB — Daniel Jones, NYG @ WAS
- RB — Tank Bigsby, JAX vs CLE
- RB — Jamaal Williams, NO @ DAL
- WR — Tyler Johnson, LAR @ ARI
- TE — Theo Johnson, NYG @ WAS
- K — Chase McLaughlin, TB @ DET
- DST — Jaguars vs CLE
Thanks so much for reading — the comments, feedback and overall response to the article have bordered on overwhelming. Please feel free to let my bosses know how I’m doing below with any comments or questions. Make sure to follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for a link to my brand new best-selling Substack page for custom projections plus all the fantasy, betting, and DFS data you can stomach.
(Top photo of Bucky Irving: Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
