On Tuesday, as former President Donald Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan rolled into day two of jury selection, a new poll released by AP-NORC suggests that the verdict is in from the court of public opinion, revealing that a majority of Americans do not think Trump did something illegal in the case.
Trump is facing 34 counts of falsifying business records related to alleged hush money payments made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels, and according to the poll, the public is skeptical that Trump is receiving fair treatment from District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s prosecutors in the case or that the judge and jurors can remain impartial in cases involving him.
Trump has made the cases brought against him a centerpiece of his 2024 presidential campaign, calling the proceedings “an assault on America” as he arrived at court on Monday morning. Later in the day, Trump said that the trial “election interference” that helps the “radical left Democrats,” in comments he made outside of the courthouse.
Trump said,
…that I’m not in Georgia, or Florida, or North Carolina campaigning like I should be it’s perfect for the radical left Democrats, that’s exactly what they want. This is about election interference, that’s all it’s about.
A conviction could hurt the presumptive Republican nominee on the campaign trail, with half of those polled reporting that if Trump were convicted of falsifying business documents to conceal hush money payments related to an alleged affair, it would make him unfit to serve as president.
Still, Americans view the legal proceedings as having a cloud of doubt hanging over them. Only roughly three in ten Americans believe that any of the prosecutors bringing charges against Trump are treating him fairly. Meanwhile, A super-minority of about two in ten Americans express extreme or very high confidence that the judges and jurors in cases against Trump can uphold fairness and impartiality.
Although the poll revealed that 35 percent of Americans believe Trump has engaged in illegal activities regarding the hush money allegations, slightly fewer, approximately three in ten, believe he acted unethically without violating the law. Fourteen percent believe he did nothing wrong at all. These numbers have remained relatively stable over the year since he was initially charged in the case.
Unsurprisingly, Democrat voters are significantly more inclined to deem Trump guilty, about six in ten, while less than one in ten Republicans claim that Trump engaged in illegal activity in the case. As for independent voters, about three in ten feel Trump is guilty of the charges.
A supermajority of 70 percent of Republicans say that Trump didn’t violate the law, with around 30 percent saying he did nothing wrong and the other 40 percent believing his actions were unethical but not illegal.
Similar partisan breakdowns appear for questions about his fitness to serve as president if convicted. About 80 percent of Democrats deem it would make him unfit, while 60 percent of GOP voters say he would still be suitable for office. Independents are split on the question, with half saying they think he would be unfit, and the remaining split between 22 percent finding him fit and 30 percent unsure or not knowing enough information to decide.
The poll surveyed 1,204 adults between April 4 and April 8, utilizing a sample from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, designed to represent the U.S. population. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
