Looking for the chalkiest region in the first round of the NCAA Tournament? Our model thinks it’s likely to be the East. Only two of six Bracket Breaker games have an upset chance of greater than 10 percent, and no team has more than a 28 percent chance of springing an upset.

Below is a game-by-game analysis of every first-round matchup with Bracket Breaker implications in the East. We’ve already examined the Midwest and the West and will break down the South on Wednesday and every potential second-round matchup. To qualify as a Bracket Breaker game, opponents need to be separated by at least five seeds (which is why we don’t cover the 8/9 or 7/10 games). Our analysis adjusts teams’ basic strengths according to how closely they statistically resemble favorites and underdogs from past tournaments and, where appropriate, by style matchups. We can’t tell you how to bet — that depends on how richly your pool rewards deep upsets and your tolerance for risk. But if you’re interested in how our model works, check out this piece.

And now, onto the upsets!

More Bracket Breakers: Men’s Top 10 Upsets | Midwest Region Preview | West Region Preview | Women’s Top 10 Upsets

Odds are from BetMGM. For more Underdogs, listen to Peter and Jordan’s podcast. For all our March Madness coverage, check out our content hub. 

No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 12 UAB Blazers

Upset Chance: 27.8 percent

Spread: San Diego State favored by 6.5 points

Senior big man Jaedon LeDee (21.1 points and 8.4 rebounds per game) is having a breakout year for the Aztecs, who otherwise cut a similar profile to the team that made the national championship game last year as a 5-seed. The Aztecs play slooow. They are effective rebounders at both ends of the court. They’re above average at creating and preventing turnovers. They have lost one game all season by double digits (to New Mexico). And while bid-thieving UAB ranks 22nd in the country in offensive rebounding percentage (35.3 percent), the Blazers don’t show off other traits that would normally excite anyone hunting for Cinderellas.

Yet of the 10 historical games most similar to this matchup, five ended in upsets. These contests included Marquette over Syracuse in 2011, North Carolina State over Georgetown in 2012 and UCLA over SMU in 2015. These power-conference teams with double-digit losses shared similar routes to success: They kept themselves in slow games, made threes at an unusually high rate, and exploited poor shooting by their higher-seeded opponents. UCLA, for example, hit 10 of 20 threes while SMU was shooting 36.4 percent from the field to win a 64-possession game in their 6-11 faceoff.

So even though UAB hasn’t launched bombs too often or accurately this season, Slingshot is saying that if they can crank up their catapults, they’ve got a chance here. Especially because while San Diego State has allowed opponents to shoot just 30.5 percent from downtown (ranking 20th), they have allowed opponents to take more than 40 percent of their FGA as threes (ranking 286th). The former number is likely to regress, and then we’ll see how much the latter matters.

No. 6 BYU Cougars vs. No. 11 Duquesne Dukes

Upset Chance: 24.8 percent

Spread: BYU favored by 9.5 points

Early in the season, we had been eyeing BYU as a dangerous underdog, largely because of their emphasis on three-point shooting (50.7 percent of shots, second in the country). But the Cougars played too well for much of the season and ended up as a first-round favorite. Unfortunately, the same quality that makes them a threat against better teams makes them vulnerable to weaker foes. That’s variance for you.

Against the Dukes, the Cougars would be wise to shift their offensive focus inside, where they happen to hit 58 percent of their shots (eighth in the country). But generating those shots won’t be easy. Duquesne ranks 28th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and creates turnovers on 19.5 percent of opponents’ possessions, led by Jimmy Clark, who ranks 14th in the country in steal percentage.

The Dukes struggle offensively, ranking just 166th in adjusted efficiency. But their defense is disruptive enough to threaten a Cougars team that has gone 11-9 in their past 20 games after a 12-1 start.

No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 14 Morehead St. Eagles

Upset Chance: 9.6 percent

Spread: Illinois favored by 11.5 points

Top tourney seeds have been more focused on defense than offense for much of this century. But that may be changing. Illinois is one of several strong teams — Alabama, Baylor, Kentucky — that feature elite offenses and pedestrian defenses. The Illini rank third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency but just 93rd on defense. They’re particularly weak at forcing turnovers, which they do on just 12.3 percent of opponents’ possessions (third-worst in the country).

But that doesn’t figure to matter much against Morehead State. The Eagles also struggle to force turnovers and throw the ball away plenty (18.5 percent of possessions). On the plus side, they shoot lots of threes, are strong rebounders at both ends and have Riley Minix, a former NAIA player who came to Morehead as a grad student and is averaging 21 points and 10 rebounds, with more than a block and a steal per game.

Minix won’t be enough to match Illinois’ deadly iso duo of Terrence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask, though. Our model sees less than a 10 percent chance of an upset.

Stetson coach Donnie Jones has his team believing, but it faces a tough test in defending champion UConn in the first round. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

No. 1 Connecticut Huskies vs. No. 16 Stetson Hatters

Upset Chance: 6.3 percent

Spread: UConn favored by 26.5 points

Fun fact: Stetson’s mascot used to be a “Mad Hatter” with crazy hair and huge teeth, but the school retired that demented ambassador in the 1990s, apparently because of reports that he frightened children.

This is too bad because nothing Stetson has left will likely throw a scare into UConn.

There are four impressive reasons the Huskies score an adjusted 126.6 points per 100 possessions, the most in the country: They’re a top-10 team shooting from inside (58.5 percent on 2-point attempts). They launch a lot of threes without losing efficiency because they’re so effective from long range, too. They grab 36.5 percent of their missed shots, ranking 15th in the country. And they don’t turn the ball over. What more could you want, a top-15 defense, too? Well, they’ve got that.

Meanwhile, Stetson’s defensive stats are so bad they’re almost like UConn’s in reverse: 267th in 2-point FG percent allowed, 300th in defensive rebounding percentage, 345th in forcing turnovers … you get the picture. The Hatters don’t accumulate possessions because they can’t make stops. They’re smart enough to know that their puncher’s chance against better teams lies in opening up their offense. In games against UNLV, Houston, UCF and Cincinnati, Stetson took 49 percent of their shots from downtown and hit 36.5 percent of them (and went 1-3). But UConn also holds opponents to just 33.2 percent 3PA/FGA (ranking 49th) and 31.9 percent shooting on threes (ranking 66th). We have our doubts about all the chalky talk surrounding the Huskies at the moment. But whether or not Connecticut ultimately wins a crown this year, Slingshot thinks it’s pretty clear they will start the tournament by claiming a Hat.

No. 4 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 13 Yale Bulldogs

Upset Chance: 5.2 percent

Spread: Auburn favored by 12.5 points

Pardon us for mounting Slingshot on its soapbox for a moment. But memo to all insiders, pundits and fans who claim to love effort, teamwork and defense: If you really do, there’s no way you can believe a 4-seed was appropriate for Auburn, which our model ranks as the No. 5 team in the country. Bruce Pearl’s crew works its collective tail off to gain an advantage on the boards and create turnovers. Their efficiency in the possession game gives them a top-10 offense, and their strangulation of opposing shooters gives them a top-5 defense. (Opponents are hitting just 42.8 percent of 2-point attempts, the lowest rate in the country, and only 29.8 percent of threes, ranking ninth-lowest.)

By necessity, this is a team-wide enterprise. Auburn’s bench logs more than 43 percent of the Tigers’ minutes, eighth-most in the nation. That cuts into the raw numbers put up by individual members of Auburn’s backcourt, but note that on a per-possession basis, Aden Holloway, KD Johnson and Tre Donaldson look more impressive. And Johni Broome (16.2 points and 8.4 rebounds in 24.7 minutes per game) has been sublime, no matter your vantage point. Analytically, this is an easy team to love and to see making a long run. And if our model made wishes, it would hope more “eye tests” would agree.

Auburn’s excellence on the offense and obliteration of opponents’ inside shooting, countering two areas where Yale is pretty good, make this a particularly bad matchup for the surprise Ivy League champions. Further, by now, you’ve seen us write about Generic Giants, high seeds that don’t dominate in any of the possession-building categories of forcing or avoiding turnovers or seizing offensive or defensive rebounds. Well, Yale is a Generic Killer. The Bulldogs rank 255th in the country at generating turnovers, 230th in 3-point shot rate and 196th in rebounding their own missed shots. Rumor has it they’re pretty smart, but they just don’t take the kind of chances that make an underdog successful.

So beware: In the metrics that matter for upsets, these Bulldogs are more similar to the Yale team that got blown out of the first round in 2022 than the squad that outhustled Baylor on the boards in a 12-5 upset in 2016.

No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 15 South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Upset Chance: 5.2 percent

Spread: Iowa State favored by 16.5 points

Two years ago, the Jackrabbits were a trendy upset pick. We warned readers that our model wasn’t nearly as bullish on their chances and to avoid going with the masses. Sure enough, they fell to Providence by 9 points.

Well, this year’s South Dakota St. team isn’t close to that squad, and our model gives them just a 5 percent chance of beating Iowa State. The Cyclones’ defense is the best in the country in overall adjusted efficiency and ranks second in turnovers, and it should completely smother the Jackrabbits.

Thanks to John Harris, Kevin Hutson and Liz Bouzarth of Furman University for research assistance.

(Photo Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photo credits: Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire, Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)