The NBA Playoffs are really rolling now. We enter day two of the playoffs on Sunday with four Game 1s featuring tons of star power, injury question marks and even some déjà vu. The Celtics and Heat clash in a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference finals, where the Heat continued their stunning run to the Finals. Odds say, not so much this time around. Then we’ve got two close matchups between the Clippers and Mavs in a throwback to the first round of the 2020 and 2021 postseason.
Big names are sidelined this week in all four matchups, including Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Zion Williamson. But so far, those injuries have simply been fuel for the rest of these rosters.
We’ve got odds, previews and expert picks for each Sunday Game 1 of the NBA playoffs, listed in order of tip-off time.
All odds from BetMGM. Find the best deals on StubHub for tickets.
No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 8 Miami Heat
How to watch: 1 p.m. ET on ABC
Series odds: Celtics -3000, Heat +1300
Well, those odds aren’t pretty if you’re a Heat fan, are they? The Celtics are favored to win the NBA title this year, so yeah, oddsmakers expect the Heat will be up against it.
Miami showed off a clever defensive attack against the Chicago Bulls in their Play-In win on Friday night in the absence of Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier. Coach Erik Spoelstra put Bam Adebayo on DeMar DeRozan, which seemed to throw the Bulls off-balance, and Tyler Herro provided the offensive fuel with 24 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists. The Heat closed it out with a decisive win, 112-91.
But it almost goes without saying that defeating the 64-win Celtics is a different ballgame from besting a 39-win Chicago crew. Boston is out to finally get their win with the dynamite Jayson Tatum-Jaylen Brown duo, and they finished the regular season with seven more wins than any other team in the league.
While the Heat have eliminated Boston in two of the past four playoffs, they had Butler in “Playoff Jimmy” mode for those games. Without him, it’s hard to see this series going more than four games or five for Boston to punch their ticket to the next round.
Expert picks for Celtics vs. Heat
How to watch: 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Series odds: Clippers +140, Mavs -165
This looks familiar. For the third time in the last five playoffs, the Clips and Mavs will face off in the first round, and this is one of the most anticipated first-round matchups. The odds reflect the fact it should be a good competition.
We say should. The Clippers took the win in the 2020 and 2021 postseason matchups, but while some of the same players remain, these are two very different teams. The Clips are 2-1 against the Mavs this year but haven’t played them since December 20 — and all of those games were played with Kawhi Leonard on the floor. Leonard is questionable for Game 1 as he deals with knee inflammation.
Dallas, on the other hand, has its stars on the court, with what The Athletic’s Tim Cato called “the most talented roster of the Luka Dončić era.” The Mavs won 23 of their final 30 regular-season games. (They didn’t play their starters in the final two games.) In addition to an offense led by Kyrie Irving, the team brings a physicality that past Dončić squads lacked, hitting offensive rebounds hard and showing up with the league’s top defense since March 10.
Expert picks for Clippers vs. Mavericks
How to watch: 7 p.m. ET on TNT
Series odds: Bucks +100, Pacers -120
The Bucks face two critical challenges in this game: injuries and pace. Giannis Antetokounmpo is reportedly out for the beginning of this series, while Damian Lillard is returning from resting after irritating a sore left adductor in the regular-season finale. They’re up against All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton and a Pacers team that is among the fastest in the NBA.
Here is what Damian Lillard had to say about not going live until today and what was bothering him: https://t.co/NMo58PC2ay pic.twitter.com/Fi1ubZqjYZ
— Eric Nehm (@eric_nehm) April 19, 2024
During the regular season, the Pacers led the league with 12.3 points per game at the second-fastest pace. As The Athletic’s Eric Nehm pointed out, against the Bucks, the Pacers have had even more velocity, scoring 128.8 points per game in their five clashes this year and winning four of those five.
“We’ve been working on that pace,” Bucks guard Malik Beasley said. “They are the No. 1 team who scores in the first eight seconds, we know that. Most of their points come in transition and also in the paint, so we repped it out multiple times already so far this week, and we’ve still got a couple more days.”
The Pacers’ challenge will be defending Lillard, who—despite recent injury—is an elite scorer, especially from deep. In five games without Antetokounmpo, Lillard averaged 29.9 points per game and picked up 7.6 assists. While he didn’t play as well against the Pacers in the four games he played against them, this is the playoffs, and Lillard has a lot of experience. The Pacers shouldn’t sleep on Dame.
Expert picks for Bucks vs. Pacers
How to watch: 9:30 p.m. ET on TNT
Series odds: OKC -700, New Orleans +450
The Zion Williamson train seemed to be finally gathering speed in the Pelicans’ first playoff game against the LA Lakers. He looked like an unstoppable force, scoring 40 points and getting 11 rebounds and 5 assists. Then, the all-too-familiar brake: An injury in the final few minutes put Williamson out for at least a couple of weeks.
And yet, in an at-home game against the Sacramento Kings Friday night, the Pelicans showed up and showed they can make big wins without their big man. They won the game 105-98 thanks to major contributions from role players outside of their stars. The team’s depth is what powered them to a chance at the playoffs this year, and it showed up again on Friday with Naji Marshall, Jose Alvarado and Larry Nance Jr. combining for 34 points off the bench. Their starters delivered, too, with Brandon Ingram getting 24 and Jona Valanciunas 19.
But now they face a 57-win OKC team with a formidable starting lineup in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. They’re 2-1 against the Pels this year and held New Orleans to 103.4 points per 100 possessions.
Expert picks for Thunder vs. Pelicans
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(Photo of Jayson Tatum: Erin Clark / The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
