He’s a full brother to last year’s Derby winner Mage, sharing both sire and dam, and a win in last fall’s Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack engendered a bit of a buzz around him. Returning this year to win the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream, the buzz quieted when he then ran fourth in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. He’s run well in the mud and has met distance challenges, but he’s an inveterate pace-setter, and getting to the front from post 1 in a 20-horse field will be no easy task.

When you pay $2.3 million for a horse that’s not even 18 months old, you expect him to win big races, and Sierra Leone has delivered, winning two graded stakes this year in the Derby prep series, and finishing second by a nose in another last year. He loves the mud, and his closing running style means that this inside post isn’t as much of a disadvantage as it might be for other runners. Nothing not to like here.

Another who loves the slop–he won the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park by eight lengths on a muddy track–and that may be the primary reason to consider him on Saturday, though his ability to rate off the pace in the Southwest after beginning his career as an early leader is a promising development. His performances have been inconsistent; the mud moves him up, but not enough to win.

The first of two for trainer Cox earned his way here with a come-from-behind win in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, and with earnings of $877,000 in five lifetime races, he’s already earned back the $575,000 purchase price. Worse than third only once, he did lose the Grade 2 Risen Star on a muddy track. I’m thinking of him underneath, not for the win.

Tough to find anything to like in this lightly raced longshot. True, Fierceness was a freak in the Florida Derby, but Catalytic still finished 13 lengths behind him in his only start beyond a mile. He has no wet track experience, and while there’s distance in his pedigree, I’m looking elsewhere.

A $500,000 yearling purchase by the 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, Just Steel represents 88-year-old Lukas’s chance to win a fifth Kentucky Derby, and first since 1999. With 11 races on his résumé, he’s run more than any other horse in the field (and nearly four times as many races as the horse to his hinside), with seven top-three finishes. Winless this year with three runner-up performances, he’s not done his best running on a wet track; consider using him underneath if it’s muddy.

A former long-time assistant to Todd Pletcher, Beckman went out on his own a couple of years ago, and now the protegé takes on his mentor in the biggest race of the year. A definite downgrade if the track comes up wet, Honor Marie cost a mere $40,000 at auction and has earned $526,000. Clearly talented, he deserves a long look, especially if the track isn’t a sloppy mess.

Cox’s second entrant is another lightly raced, precociously successful runner. Debuting in January with a multi-length win at Fair Grounds, he’s been second in two graded stakes since. That maiden win came over a sloppy track, as did his two-length loss in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes. He likes to get the lead, which is not usually a winning strategy in this race, so Geroux will need to harness his mount’s speed in the early going before letting him run.

Encino was scratched from the race after being off following his Tuesday morning training. Epic Ride entered the field as a replacement.

This Japanese-bred colt earned a spot in the gate with a win in the Fukuryu Stakes in his home country, as part of the Japanese road to the Derby, in which the horse with the most points at the end of the four-race series gets a bid to Louisville. He’s raced only twice in his life, never on a wet track, and quite honestly, I don’t know what his connections are thinking by running him here.

Unlike the fellow Japanese-bred to his inside, Forever Young won a race in the main Derby prep series, the UAE Derby at Meydan in Dubai. Undefeated in five starts, none on wet tracks, he’s been a buzz horse since that race in March, and as Japanese horses are increasingly finding success at U.S. tracks, he’s been talked up as perhaps the one that will finally win the Derby for Japan. No doubt he’s talented, but I’m skeptical.

Pricey yearling purchase has two good efforts on wet tracks, both runner-up performances. He’s always run on or near the lead, and he’ll likely need to adapt that style for this race, and it’s never a good idea to try something new in a race of this magnitude against this many horses. Since facing tougher company earlier this year, he’s yet to hit the winner’s circle. Would use underneath if at all.

Once ubiquitous on the backstretches of U.S. racetracks, Black people have rarely gotten a spotlight in thoroughbred racing this century. Demeritte is only the third Black trainer in nearly 75 years to run a horse in the Derby, and should West Saratoga prevail on Saturday, it will be a victory for small trainers and trainers of color, both of which are far too often overlooked. Unfortunately, Demeritte is up against it: his horse, which cost $11,000, has never won in the mud, and he’s seldom faced competition at this level. Still, he’s been competitive in nearly all of his races, though he does seem to have a case of “seconditis.” Not putting on top, but intriguing underneath.

This bay colt comes to the race with one loss in six starts, which is the good news. The bad news is that this is the first time that he’ll be running on dirt, his prior starts coming on turf and synthetic surfaces. So he’ll be racing on a wholly new surface, and one that will likely be less than ideal. McCarthy is a smart man who doesn’t take shots just for the sake of taking them. You never know, Endlessly might turn out to be mudlark. Consider cautiously.

The second in the race for Klaravich and Brown, he performed dismally in his only start on a muddy track, and he’s been fairly inconsistent in his short career. A stalking running style might suit this race, but despite the world-class connections, I’m passing.

His only wins have come on a synthetic track, he’s never won a stakes race and his two wins have come at 5 1/2 furlongs or shorter. What is he doing here?

And we come to the favorite, the horse that romped at Gulfstream Park last time out, winning the Florida Derby by 13 lengths. This horse is supremely talented and his obstreperousness at the starting gate may have cost him two additional wins. His recent morning gallops have raised quizzical eyebrows. He once won by daylight on a muddy track and once finished seventh over a sloppy track. I won’t be surprised if he runs terribly and I won’t be surprised if he wins. He’ll be on my tickets, particularly if his price drifts up, but without a lot of confidence. I will not be betting him to win.

He’s put together an impressive string of races this year, winning twice, finishing second in two others, all in graded stakes races and culminating with a neck win in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. He’s one of several here who will want to go to the lead, which in the best of circumstances doesn’t usually work in this race, and breaking from the far outside makes it an even less attractive option. He’s run only on fast tracks. I’m intrigued but thinking he’s more likely underneath.

Bill Mott isn’t the sort of trainer that will enter a horse in the Derby just to have a horse in the Derby, so the fact that this horse is here at all makes me give him a long look. His 2-year-old season wasn’t particularly impressive, but he came back as a sophomore to break his maiden in January and then make a decisive run to win the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. His one race on a sloppy track was a disappointing fourth, behind three horses racing here. Many signs point to no, but I’m not ruling him out.

Second to Resilience in the Wood Memorial, he doesn’t offer much to be optimistic about. He wasn’t remotely competitive in his first three races, and though he did finally break his maiden on a muddy track, in the race before — admittedly a stakes race — he was eighth by 15 lengths. He shares a sire with last year’s winner Mage, which certainly doesn’t hurt, but I’m not seeing much here to like.

He ran the first four races of his career on synthetic surfaces, notching a third-place finish by 4 1/4 lengths in his first start on dirt, beaten by two other runners in this race. His front-running style will be hindered by this post position, as he’ll have to charge from the gate and get across 19 horses if he doesn’t want to be hung wide. He also has no wet track experience. Passing.

Mugatu needs another scratch to enter the field. This horse has lower career earnings than any of the horses currently in the field.