On the day he arrived via trade from the Carolina Hurricanes, Warren Foegele was expected to help solve the third line issues that stretched back a decade.
He did in fact aid in that goal, but along the way, Foegele became something more for the Edmonton Oilers.
When he was acquired by the team, Foegele was described as “a player with a great deal of utility. He has size at 6-foot-2 and 198 pounds, ample foot speed and a rambunctious style. He’s aggressive and versatile enough to play up and down the depth chart at left wing.”
He’s been all that and more, and his arrival at free agency this summer carries risk for the team.
If Foegele is set loose to sign elsewhere, who replaces him?
He’s in his prime, would he take a discount to remain on a team where he is a big part of the solution and has a chance to win the Stanley Cup?
The progression
Foegele has developed into a useful complementary player with Edmonton. His point total this season at five-on-five (13-19-32) exceeds all veteran forwards save Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman.
Over his time with the Oilers, Foegele has improved on his performance each season.
| Year | TOI-Game | Pts-60 | X-Goal Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2021-22 |
11:38 |
1.38 |
52 |
|
2022-23 |
11:34 |
2.09 |
57 |
|
2023-24 |
12:09 |
2.26 |
57 |
All numbers five-on-five
The production is top flight and getting better. His ice time ranks No. 5 among regular forwards and his points per 60 total is No. 4 in the lineup. In his final season with Carolina, he was No. 8 in ice time five-on-five, and No. 7 in points per 60 in the game state.
These years later, it’s likely he will play on the second line during the playoffs, with Leon Draisaitl and one of Adam Henrique or Ryan McLeod.
Based on the statistical evidence, Foegele is the best offensive option among forwards to join the big three (McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman) on the roster, passing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (only as an offensive player) and Evander Kane.
That’s a significant progression and could leave one of the veterans vulnerable.
The club has two elite drivers in McDavid and Draisaitl, and their on-ice goal share (both together and isolated) is a key to Edmonton’s success. Here are the numbers for all lines, using centres as a proxy.
All numbers five-on-five
The top two lines are strong, fade a little with Nugent-Hopkins or McLeod solo centre, and in terms of goal share, look good when Henrique is in the middle.
Foegele is part of that success.
The utility
Along with his impact at even strength, Foegele can take a regular turn on the penalty kill.
This season, Foegele’s GA-60 (3.68) is the best total among forwards who PK regularly, and his SA-60 in the metric (32.19) is also the best total on the club.
This is important because it gives coach Kris Knoblauch a chance to rest another forward (say, Hyman) without losing quality.
Once the PK is over, the coach can deploy the top line with Hyman as part of the trio.
The difficult math summer
Management has several unrestricted players this offseason, with Foegele and defenceman Vincent Desharnais at the top of the signing list.
Other UFA forwards include the recently acquired Henrique and Sam Carrick, along with veterans Mattias Janmark, Connor Brown and Corey Perry.
Goalie Calvin Pickard and defenceman Troy Stecher may also be under consideration for contract offers.
Money will be tight in July, but the issue for management is clear.
Finding a suitable replacement for this player, for fewer dollars, won’t be easy.
Foegele has turned himself into a useful player who can cash passes from Draisaitl and other skilled men on the team. His current contract, holding an AAV of $2.75 million, is a bargain based on what he has delivered over the last three seasons.
PuckPedia has the Oilers with $73.26 million in cap dollars already spent. That means management needs to procure 10 (or fewer) players for $14.4 million, including Foegele, Desharnais and any other UFAs on the current roster the club may wish to retain.
Money’s too tight to mention for the Oilers this season, but losing Foegele is not an attractive option.
Cap, chemistry and goal scoring
Since McDavid arrived in the fall of 2015, the Oilers have tried to shoehorn talented but inexpensive talent onto his line.
A player like Patrick Maroon arrived under a reasonable contract ($2 million a year), provided exceptional value, and was sent away via trade when it was clear the Oilers wouldn’t be able to satisfy his ask on the next contract.
That’s similar to the current situation, save for the fact that Foegele is a faster winger who can be deployed in multiple areas.
There’s a danger here for Edmonton. The McDavid-Maroon chemistry was real, and the Draisaitl-Foegele combination is also strong. Here are the two duos and their on-ice performances.
| Line | Minutes | Goals-60 | Goal Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
|
McDavid-Maroon |
1393 |
3.49 |
60 |
|
Draisaitl-Foegele |
654 |
3.76 |
58 |
All numbers five-on-five
Good teams have scouting and analytics departments that can find inexpensive talent, so it’s possible the club can figure out a workaround on Foegele.
McLeod has good chemistry with Draisaitl, and Dylan Holloway is bubbling up from the minors and could develop into a useful player.
The problem is that takes time.
The Oilers are locked and loaded to win it all. Signing Foegele should be a priority and it’s likely management will attempt to get a contract done.
The Foegele trade was a win for the organization, he’s young enough to provide value on the next contract and it will be affordable for a team not stuck in cap hell.
The year after Maroon left Edmonton, McDavid’s most common linemates consisted of an internal candidate (Draisaitl) and a veteran (Zack Kassian) who fit the description (enforcer) Oilers management felt appropriate at the time.
Foegele’s ability to score and help outscore, and his increased role on a line that is playing against elite competition, via Puck IQ, suggests the organization would do well to consider trading an older player under contract in order to make room for Foegele.
That won’t be easy, but the chemistry built between Draisaitl and Foegele is worth the effort.
(Photo: Perry Nelson / USA Today)
