On Friday afternoon, the Bakersfield Condors published the lineup for the road game against the Tucson Roadrunners.

The Edmonton Oilers’ 2021 first-round selection, Xavier Bourgault, was on the third line, while 2020 fifth-round pick Tyler Tullio was on the top line.

The Condors’ strongest center, Lane Pederson, was slated to play with Tullio and left winger Drake Caggiula.

The two young prospects are flipped based on pedigree, but the performance of each young right winger tells a different story.

Bourgault is the sole first-round pick forward currently developing with the AHL’s Bakersfield Condors.

Halfway through his entry-level contract, he has stalled. He is a ghost in even-strength scoring, having not produced a point since Feb. 2.

On the other hand, Tullio is emerging as the top player among the group of prospects in entry-level deals with the Condors.

On Friday night, a win against the Roadrunners, Tullio scored a goal and played a prominent role.

Bourgault took a penalty, and got boxed out on the wall during a late second-period power play. That sequence, where Bourgault attempted to secure the puck and was muscled out of the play, would result seconds later in the first Tucson goal of the game.

Tullio and Bourgault are young men going in different directions.

Bourgault’s frustrating season

In his first 23 games, including all game states, Bourgault scored 4-6-10, and in the second 23-game segment of this season, he posted just two goals and six points.

Tullio’s emergence

While Bourgault goes through long periods without getting chances, Tullio’s points per game at even strength leads the group of young players considered to be the most promising prospects in Bakersfield.

Tullio has scored four goals in his most recent 10 games, all at even strength.

Despite the gap in draft number, it is Tullio who is emerging this season.

Bourgault is scoring even-strength points at the same rate as shutdown defenceman Max Wanner.

No one in the organization can possibly believe this is normal. Bourgault was a successful offensive player in the QMJHL and had a solid if unspectacular year with Bakersfield in 2022-23.

Why is he stalling? Is he alone?

Even-strength scoring

One question worth asking surrounds even-strength scoring and contributions by players on entry-level deals.

Let’s look at the six most recent seasons for the Condors, comparing entry contracts to veterans in terms of even-strength goals.

The seasons where Bakersfield’s even-strength goals came mostly (over 50 percent) from entry-level deals coincided with strong rookie crops.

In 2018-19, rookies included Cooper Marody, Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto.

In 2020-21, Ryan McLeod (in his second season), Raphael Lavoie and Ostap Safin contributed significantly.

The 2022-23 season saw Noah Philp, Tullio, Savoie and Bourgault score enough to tip the scales in favour of entry-level players.

This season, there are three entry-level players (Tullio, Carter Savoie and Jayden Grubbe) who have scored six times at even strength.

The Condors are consistent scorers in the discipline.

In 2022-23, Bakersfield averaged 2.22 even-strength goals per game. This season, the total is 2.2 per game. Identical.

In those six seasons, including this one, even strength points-per-game has seen few outstanding performances. Here are the top five points scorers.

The 2020-21 season was the pandemic year, so it is less than an ideal list. However, McLeod did in fact dominate even-strength offence during the campaign, and unlike others, spent significant time in the AHL.

If you are Bourgault or one of the young men trying to find the NHL, even strength is the area to shine.

Tullio is emerging, Savoie is showing a pulse, Bourgault is going the wrong way.

What’s next?

It’s far too early to give up on Bourgault. There are examples of young Oilers forwards who struggled early in their pro career and then find the range.

Almost all of them, in this century, spiked in Year 2.

Includes all game states

The only player who saw a similar career progression in this group is Tyler Pitlick, who overcame injuries to carve out an industrious NHL career.

Bourgault wasn’t supposed to struggle offensively, he was supposed to post strong offensive numbers during his entry-level deal.

There are miles to go, and every NHL team should wait five years after a player draft to make the call on an individual player.

The current player who best fits the model above is Tullio. Despite not being gifted with much power-play time, his career progression is more promising at this time.

Bourgault’s strengths (he is a great passer, and anticipates very well) should have him progressing at a far more aggressive rate than he currently enjoys.

Forwards and slow progress in Bakersfield

The Oilers farm club has developed many young defencemen in Bakersfield since 2015. Evan Bouchard, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Jordan Oesterle, Brad Hunt, Mike Kesselring, Philip Broberg and others played there.

Laurent Brossoit and Stuart Skinner, both NHL goaltenders of note, were developed there.

Forwards who count Bakersfield as a stopping point on the way to the NHL include McLeod, Yamamoto, Holloway, Jesse Puljujarvi and Patrick Russell.

The forwards are the least impressive group.

That does speak to development after turning pro. That speaks to coaching.

What to do about it? 

Pretty much every player who remains in the AHL after turning 21 has something about them that slows NHL graduation.

This could be an opportunity for Bourgault.

His resume screamed skill coming out of junior hockey. It’s still there. He has several areas of above average skills, including vision, anticipation and passing.

He continues to be outstanding as a forechecker and turns over pucks often.

Edmonton’s new general manager will need to have a close look at what has gone wrong and make changes as required.

A team like the Oilers, trading picks often, can’t afford to lose even one skilled prospect. This is a most unsatisfactory situation for all involved.

(Photo: Perry Nelson / USA Today)