The quarterback carousel is spinning.

It started Monday, when Russell Wilson was informed he would be released just two years after the Broncos invested a treasure trove of draft picks and $245 million. Suffice to say, that was a disaster. But the Broncos will take another bite out of the quarterback apple this offseason — and they are not alone.

This offseason could involve change at the quarterback position for nearly a dozen teams. Three first-round draft picks from 2021 (Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Mac Jones) will have to find new homes, joining Trey Lance in that remarkably disappointing draft class of quarterbacks. This year’s draft is considered a loaded class at quarterback, with some intriguing veterans also set to hit free agency. Kirk Cousins is at the top of that list, potentially breaking free after six years with the Vikings. His market should be robust, even coming off an Achilles injury.

The legal tampering period for free agency opens Monday at noon ET, so this felt like a good time to look ahead and predict what teams will do at quarterback.

First, let’s handicap the field by figuring out how many jobs are open, which might be open and which teams are already set at starting quarterback.

Locked in, nothing to see here (15)

Safe, but with something to prove (3)

Young, unaccomplished, but safe (2)

Young, unaccomplished, but probably safe (1)

To be determined (2)

Open for business (9)

Bears, Broncos, Buccaneers, Commanders, Falcons, Patriots, Raiders, Steelers, Vikings.

Notable options

Let’s run through the starting-caliber — or borderline starting-caliber — quarterbacks who could be available this offseason.

NFL Draft: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix.

Free agency: Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Gardner Minshew, Mason Rudolph, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Jacoby Brissett, Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Jimmy Garoppolo (after he’s released).

Trade: Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Zach Wilson, Sam Howell.

Predictions

So, the table is set. At least nine teams — and maybe 11 — need to figure out their quarterback situation.

Here are my predictions for how that plays out:

USC quarterback Caleb Williams is the sure-bet No. 1 pick. (Darren Yamashita / USA Today)

Bears: Caleb Williams

Let’s get the easy one out of the way first: Chicago drafts the clear-cut No. 1 prospect in this draft and builds its team around him. There are distractions that come with Williams — we’ve written about them — but the Bears have been looking for a franchise quarterback for decades. They’ll take the noise if he’s good — and The Athletic’s draft expert Dane Brugler wrote that Williams is “truly a unique player with his own style.”

This means, of course, that Fields will be on the way out. I’m not so sure, though, if there’s an obvious fit for him as a no-doubt starter at this point.

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Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield

Mayfield should have a robust market if he makes it to free agency since he’s the second-best option behind Cousins after a breakout year (4,044 yards, 28 touchdowns, 10 interceptions). He may even be a target for Minnesota if Cousins leaves. Mayfield made $4 million in 2023 and his next contract will likely exceed $30 million per year. Wide receiver Mike Evans just re-signed for significant money, so clearly the Buccaneers have no plans to rebuild. I think they pay up before Mayfield can hit free agency.

Falcons: Kirk Cousins

Atlanta wants Cousins. From Dianna Russini’s combine report: “They believe Cousins is the type of player who moves them from a fringe playoff team to a contender. New Atlanta head coach Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson both have familiarity with Cousins.” The Falcons have an impatient owner who wants to win now. Their first target will be Cousins, who seems to be recovering well coming off Achilles surgery and would be jumping into an offense with a young, exciting group of weapons (Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts).

Vikings: Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson

Let’s get wild. If the Vikings lose Cousins, their top target will be Mayfield. But if Mayfield doesn’t hit free agency, Minnesota might try to take a flier on a young option with some upside. Darnold has never been in particularly winning situations as a starter but no one has ever questioned his arm talent. After a year in Kyle Shanahan’s system, he might be ready for another shot at starting — though it’s possible Justin Jefferson (desiring a new contract) would not be thrilled with this arrangement.

In 2021, some with the Jets wanted to keep Darnold and draft Wilson and now the Vikings have the chance to play out that dream. Wilson is on his way out in New York but in the right environment, with the right coaching, he still has the talent to, at worst, be a high-end backup. Minnesota is a good fit.

Broncos: Sam Howell

Denver is in a tough spot fresh off the Russell Wilson disaster. The Broncos have limited cap flexibility and not a lot of appeal for a top free agent like Cousins. Their draft capital is also somewhat limited from various trades — they don’t own a second-round pick — and they’re picking 12th, just out of range for the top quarterback prospects unless J.J. McCarthy falls or they love Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr.

There was some buzz in Indianapolis that they are intrigued by the idea of adding a young quarterback via trade. Howell (3,946 yards, 21 touchdowns, 21 interceptions in 2023) would be an interesting target, free of the mess in Washington. A third- or fourth-round pick should do the trick.

Commanders: Drake Maye

Jayden Daniels would not surprise me at No. 2 either but I’m predicting the North Carolina star for now. If the Vikings lose Cousins and were willing to trade up from No. 11 to No. 2 or No. 3, I like them as a destination, too, especially since new quarterbacks coach Josh McCown actually coached Maye in high school. But Maye is a perfect quarterback for the new regime in Washington to build around. Brugler compared him to Justin Herbert.

Raiders: Jayden Daniels

It would take a lot for the Raiders to jump all the way from No. 13 to No. 2 or No. 3 and get Daniels, but I think they will be willing to do it to get their guy at quarterback. And it would not be a stretch to say Daniels is their guy. Raiders coach Antonio Pierce recruited him to Arizona State and they have a close relationship. Also, Las Vegas appears committed to finding a significant upgrade at quarterback. Maybe the Raiders pursue Cousins, but I think Daniels will ultimately be their target. The Heisman winner would bring some excitement to Sin City: He accounted for 90 plays of 20-plus yards in 2023, per Brugler, who wrote that Daniels “forces opponents to defend him like Lamar Jackson.”

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Patriots: Jacoby Brissett and Bo Nix

In this scenario, the Raiders would have traded up with the Patriots at No. 3. There’s some buzz that de facto Patriots general manager Eliot Wolf wants to accumulate draft capital and build up the roster — it’s a bad roster — so trading down and picking up a bunch of picks in the present and future wouldn’t be a bad idea.

Brissett signing on as a stopgap with the team that drafted him would be smart — Brissett will be in high demand as a No. 2, including for the Jets, but this is a starting opportunity. It still would allow the Patriots to take a flier on the next tier of quarterbacks either later in the first round (like McCarthy, if he falls) or in later rounds on someone like Penix or Nix. I went with Nix, who’s ranked 37th on Brugler’s draft big board. He wrote that Nix “has a good arm, understands where to go with the football, and his scrambling can give defenses fits.”

Steelers: Kenny Pickett and Ryan Tannehill

The Steelers are telling everyone who will listen that they want to run it back with Pickett and Mason Rudolph. (Exciting!) But it’s also lying season and Pittsburgh just hired Arthur Smith as its offensive coordinator, so a marriage with Tannehill makes a lot of sense. He’s 35 and not the same player anymore, but he can still be an OK starter and at least push Pickett — who is probably the Steelers’ preferred starter if he can finally live up to his first-round billing. Maybe they still bring back Rudolph, too, and have a free-for-all quarterback competition.

Geno Smith is a solid starter for the Seahawks. But could Michael Penix Jr. be their QB of the future? (Joe Camporeale / USA Today)

Smith is a perfectly fine starting quarterback who has proven he belongs the last two years, but he’s also clearly not Seattle’s quarterback of the future. I think bringing Smith back and adding some competition — ideally someone young — is the right move for a new coaching regime. Penix going back to Seattle after a stellar two-year career at the University of Washington would be a fun outcome, too. He impressed at Senior Bowl and at the NFL combine and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if he snuck into the first round at this point. The Seahawks pick 16th, which is probably too early for Penix, but they can trade back or trade back into the second round with their two third-round picks.

The Giants pick at No. 6 and indications are that general manager Joe Schoen is ready and willing to trade up and get one of the top prospects if possible. So keep an eye on them as a potential partner with the Patriots. If that doesn’t get done, the Giants will have to decide if McCarthy is good enough to go sixth overall or if that’s too early. They faced a similar dilemma with Jones, ironically, in 2019 when they picked him sixth even though most graded him worse than that. (Dave Gettleman, folks.)

McCarthy, though, is a proven winner and has the intangibles to be a successful NFL quarterback, even if he’s not a perfect prospect. Brugler writes: “McCarthy executed when his team needed a play, which often came on third or fourth down. He has the arm and athletic talent that will translate well to the pro game, and his intangibles are off the charts.”

Other QB predictions

• Browns trade for Justin Fields to back up Deshaun Watson. It makes so much sense if Fields isn’t traded somewhere to start, especially since Watson has underperformed and been injured since joining Cleveland.
• Colts sign Russell Wilson to back up Anthony Richardson. Wilson’s numbers were solid last season in Denver before he got benched but his stock around the league has taken a nose dive. He might have to accept a backup job, or go somewhere he’d have to compete to start.
• Lions sign Jared Goff to an extension.
• Mac Jones gets traded for a late-round pick.
• Jets sign Gardner Minshew to back up Aaron Rodgers.
• Joe Flacco signs with the Rams to back up Matthew Stafford.
• Eagles sign Tyrod Taylor to back up Jalen Hurts.
• Raiders release Jimmy Garoppolo. He signs with the Texans to back up C.J. Stroud.

(Top photos of Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins and Sam Howell: Carmen Mandato, Michael Reaves and Rich Schultz / Getty Images)