It was a meaningless play that didn’t result in a basket, and yet it was one of the plays of the year, a perfect symbolism of the audacious creativity, instant recognition and breathtaking skill that Nikola Jokić brings to the game of basketball.
With three-tenths of a second left in the third quarter in Los Angeles, Jokić took an inbound pass near his basket, swung at it in a half-volleyball, half-water polo motion and sent the ball hurtling 75 feet toward the other hoop. He came shockingly close to pulling off an all-time great shot.
The Lakers’ and Nuggets’ announcers had the same reaction — cackling at the ridiculousness of what they just saw. This was vintage Jokić: Processing in the half-instant of game time between Anthony Davis’ free throw going through the net and Denver inbounding that a) there were 0.3 seconds left; b) that any normal shot attempt would likely be disallowed because of that; c) that he could position his right hand in such a way to tap a high inbound pass toward the opposing basket; d) that he needed to set up on the left side of the court to give his shot a chance; and e) that he needed to signal to Peyton Watson to throw it above his right shoulder.
Also, note that before any of that happened, he grabbed the ball first to see if he could throw a surprise long pass as the inbounder before dropping it off for Watson.
This is what Jokić does: Instantly process and figure out the right move on the court, then use his insane combination of size and skill to execute it.
(My favorite Jokić story of this ilk: A league source told me that once, at a preseason meeting with league officials to review that season’s points of emphasis, the refs went over several new ways they would crack down on a certain element of trickery players were using. Jokić took it all in, then asked the officials “OK, what if I do [X]?” … and the dumbfounded officials responded that they couldn’t enforce that particular life hack. It took him seconds to figure out the new rules to the puzzle.)
That Jokić’s full-court volleyball attempt came in the midst of a 50-17 run against a Lakers team his Nuggets seemingly take a perverse joy in torturing was icing on the cake. The Nuggets looked totally lost when the three-time MVP missed three games for personal reasons last week and instantly healed once he came back.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: For the season the Nuggets have a championship-caliber plus-13.6 net rating when Jokić is on the court … and a tanktacular minus-16.9 net rating when he’s off. (Actually, that’s an insult to tanking teams — even the Wizards are only minus-14.2.)
That unfathomable 28.5-point difference between the Nuggets with and without Jokić has been an enduring feature of the last half-decade, even as the Nuggets have tried every trick in the book (staggering starters, drafting backup centers, signing backup centers, trading for different backup centers, quick kicks on third down, etc.) to stem the tide.
Underlying that difference, of course, is the simple fact that Jokić is the best player in the league, and whomever the Nuggets sub for him isn’t. Aaron Gordon has missed time because of injury, and this season, the Nuggets have lost rookie DaRon Holmes II to injury, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to free agency and about 50 percent of what Jamal Murray used to be to whatever, but it only seems to matter if Jokić isn’t out there orchestrating things.
We thought maybe he’d take half a step back this year after winning MVP three times in four seasons. He followed a long year by playing in the Olympics, and he turns 30 in February. Jokić, however, has come back better than ever. In fact, this season’s compendium of Jokić ridiculousness is so amazing that we don’t even have to put the usual “except Wilt Chamberlain, who accomplished the feat 14 times” disclaimer at the end of his accomplishments the way we do with most NBA records.
Jokic is doing things that have never been done before … ever.
Consider that he is averaging a triple-double, comfortably, and yet it’s probably the least impressive thing you could pull out of his season stat sheet. (Only two other players have done this, one of whom — Russell Westbrook — is currently in charge of derailing the non-Jokić minutes.)
Consider that Jokić is contending for the lead league in assists from the center position (no center has ever led in assists per game, although Chamberlain led in total assists in 1967-68), with Jokić’s 11.2 trailing just Atlanta’s Trae Young at 11.7 and ranking miles ahead of the rest of the field.
Consider that Jokić is leading the league in rebounding for the first time and might run away with it; his 13.9 a night average is more than a full board ahead of the Sacramento Kings’ Domantas Sabonis at 12.7.
More amazingly for a player most renowned as a brilliant passer, consider that Jokić also has a chance to win the scoring title. That’s the least likely of these potential feats, I should say, as Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo is ahead of the pack at 32.4. Jokić’s 30.2 per game is barely fending off LaMelo ball (30.2) and Davis (30.1) for second.
Nonetheless, it feels utterly insane to look at the three paragraphs above and realize Jokić has a chance to win the triple crown, leading the league in points, rebounds and assists per game. This ain’t baseball, folks: Nobody has ever come close, to the point that nobody even talks about this. Yet Jokić is first or second in all three categories; no player in NBA history has finished a season in the top three in per-game averages for each.
Westbrook’s record for triple-doubles in a season is 42. Given that Jokić is averaging a triple-double rather comfortably and still has 67 games left, you have to think that one is in his sights as well. He already has seven, which places his campaign in the top 100 in NBA history even if he shut down his season on Nov. 24.
And hey, remember when we said the Nuggets had no shooting? Jokić devised a cure for that problem: He became the shooter. He had shied away from 3-point attempts in past seasons but is launching a career high 4.0 per game; he’s also hitting a staggering 56.3 percent of them, even with that 75-foot volleyball tap attempt in L.A. counting against his percentage.
He’d be leading the league in 3-point percentage if it weren’t for that shot. (Jokić actually has one other miss classified as a “heave” by Cleaning the Glass, meaning that he’s made 27 of the 46 3s where he had a semi-realistic chance of connecting.)
The 3s haven’t even taken away anything from the rest of his game. He’s taking the same percentage of his shots inside 10 feet and has a career-high offensive rebound rate. His average shot distance is actually down this year. How?!
It also won’t surprise you to learn the advanced metrics also see Jokić as balling out. His 33.2 PER thus far would set an NBA record. He’s missed 20 percent of the schedule and still leads the league in win shares. His 15.0 BPM (box plus/minus) would also be the highest ever recorded, breaking his own record set in 2021-22. (Jokić’s last four seasons are four of the top six marks in history in BPM.)
Yes, it’s early, and a lot of water can go under the bridge, so I’ll slow my roll slightly. But Jokić is already threatening to make the MVP race a runaway. The best player of this decade is on track to have his best season ever, and it could be historic on several levels.
Enjoy the show.
Rutgers’ Ace Bailey is averaging 19.0 points per game so far this season. (Vincent Carchietta / Imagn Images)
Prospect of the Week: Ace Bailey, 6-9 freshman PF, Rutgers
(This section won’t necessarily profile the best prospect of the week. Just the one I’ve been watching.)
I managed to see five likely lottery picks in one weekend between my stops at Duke-Arizona on Friday and Rutgers’ visit to Kennesaw State on Sunday. I’ve already written about Cooper Flagg, the likely top pick in June’s draft, so today, let’s talk about Bailey. He and teammate Dylan Harper are projected by most as the second and third picks in the upcoming draft.
In a 79-77 defeat to the Owls, Bailey had 17 points, including four made 3s, and flashed unusual defensive mobility for his size. Bailey looks to be a true 6-foot-9 (as opposed to a random civilian the college decided to list as 6-9) but has a slender frame reminiscent of Chris Bosh or Kevin Durant and doesn’t play with much physicality.
Instead, he’s a skill forward, one who can shoot from deep, handle the ball and move on the perimeter on defense. Bailey hit a deep 3 in the game’s first minute and seemed like he might give the Owls a long night on catch-and-shoots. However, he had several looks that rimmed out and finished the night 4-of-10 from 3.
Obviously, 40 percent from 3 on high volume is nothing to sneeze at, even if the looks at the NBA level will be harder than the fungoes he was getting on Sunday. Bailey’s shot trajectory is a bit lower than you’d prefer, but the mechanics are smooth, he has a high release point and he gets good elevation on his jumper when he shoots off the dribble. There can be little doubt in his ability to stretch the floor.
Where teams will want to see more growth is in the other phases of his game. In particular, Bailey’s shooting skill can become a bit of a crutch that causes him to pass up higher-percentage opportunities. He knows he can always squeeze off his jumper, so that becomes the default.
Bailey took 17 shots but only had two free-throw attempts Sunday, partly because he passed up some opportunities to put more pressure on the rim. He only had one shot attempt that could be called in the restricted area and made just 2 of 7 inside the arc.
He can’t just become a guy who settles for tough 2s. Even his free throws came on a pull-up for a long 2, where the defender challenged too aggressively. He’ll get a few whistles on those with his length, but it’s a tough way to eat consistently. More often, Bailey ends up turning an initial advantage into a contested pull-up or fadeaway rather than trying to stride or finish at the rim.
The other piece, however, is that Bailey needs to make better decisions on the move. In three games for Rutgers thus far he has 42 field goal attempts and one assist. That’s … not good.
To my point above: In the few instances where he did decide to make a decisive move to the cup, it usually was the wrong decision. Twice in the first half he missed wide open teammates under the basket, once doing it while also trucking a waiting defender for an offensive foul. If he’s going to be a go-to scorer, he must add more credible passing to the package.
Bailey did a good job on the glass in Rutgers’ first two games, but the same can’t be said for Sunday. Kennesaw State raced out to a 19-point halftime lead partly by dominating the glass 27-12, and Bailey had zero boards in the first half. He finished with just one.
Where he made more impact was as a help defender and secondary rim protector. He showed quick bounce in impacting shots in the paint, had a giant chase-down block in transition and at one point used his length to pick a dribbler as a help defender with almost comic ease.
The draft isn’t until June, and Bailey will have plenty of chances to impress scouts in Big Ten play. Conversely, it’s not like there were many eyes on this game.
What scouts will want to see is whether he can build around the basic package of length and jump shooting to flash a more rounded-out floor game. Bailey tempts with “a more athletic Rashard Lewis-type” possibilities and has a strong case as the second-best prospect behind Flagg. But in a draft this strong, he could still get knocked down the board a few rungs if his weaknesses are seen as too much of a drag on his game.
GO DEEPER
2025 NBA mock draft: Cooper Flagg leads strong group. But is it a ‘superclass’?
Cup Geekery: Nine shopping days left!
We have a clinching! With just nine days and three game nights left until the NBA Cup’s quarterfinal field is set, Golden State is the first team to qualify. The Warriors are your West Group C champion after they beat New Orleans and Dallas beat Denver on Friday. Although in second place. Dallas is in great shape for the West wild card with two wins and a plus-41 point differential. If the Mavericks beat Memphis at home Dec. 3, they should be in good shape to advance.
The Rockets are our next potential clincher. They can wrap up West Group A with a win at Minnesota on Tuesday. In Group B, the Lakers have never lost an NBA Cup game and are the only unbeaten in the group but cannot clinch unless they win both group games this week (Tuesday at Phoenix and Friday versus Oklahoma City). Should they drop one, things get complicated.
In the East, after just two games, we already know Group A will be decided by the Orlando-New York game Dec. 3. In Group B, another battle of unbeatens between Milwaukee and Detroit on Dec. 3 is likely but not certain to decide the group; Miami losing either of its two Cup games this week would remove the ifs from that scenario.
Finally, if you’re looking at MAXIMUM CHAOS scenarios, we’re guaranteed to have a one-loss champion in East Group C, and it seems likely to be decided on point differential. Any of four teams could win it. The key battle this week is Atlanta hosting Cleveland on Friday in an afternoon matinee.
Clinched quarterfinal spot (1): Golden State
Still unbeaten (6): Orlando, New York, Milwaukee, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles Lakers
In the mix (12): Miami, Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Chicago, Dallas, Portland, Minnesota, LA Clippers, Phoenix, San Antonio, Oklahoma City
Sayonara (11): Toronto, Indiana, Charlotte, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Washington, New Orleans, Denver, Memphis, Sacramento, Utah
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(Top photo of Nikola Jokić: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
