On Thursday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) canceled all home leave for combat troops, citing Iran’s threats of retaliation for the IDF’s attack in Iran’s Damascus embassy. That attack killed Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps. The IDF is reported to be bracing for attacks, including the possibility of attacks directly from Iran.
With Iran vowing to retaliate for a strike earlier this week on one of its consular buildings in Damascus that it blames on Israel, the Israel Defense Forces on Thursday said it had halted home leave for all combat troops following a fresh assessment.
“The IDF is at war and the issue of the deployment of forces is constantly reviewed as needed,” the military noted in its announcement.
Possible scenarios for which the IDF is understood to be preparing include missile and drone attacks by Iran-backed groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen — all of which have been carried out amid the ongoing Gaza war — and ballistic missile attacks directly from Iran, a situation that Israel has not yet faced. And yet, Israeli officials believe the country’s air defense systems will be able to handle the threat.
The prospect of attacks directly from Iranian territory would be a significant escalation in tensions between the two countries, and could result in an open war between Israel and Iran. The two have been fighting a proxy war for many years, with Iran supplying arms and technical advice to groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah, but to date Iran has not launched attacks directly from its own territory.
Previously on RedState: Israeli Air Strike Punches Senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards Commander’s Ticket
Israel Intercepts Arms Shipment From Iran to Gaza
Israel’s chief of military intelligence engaged in something of a masterpiece of understatement concerning this development:
The head of the IDF’s Military Intelligence Directorate said Thursday that Israel was facing a particularly difficult period: “I have told you more than once that it is not certain that the worst is behind us, and we have complex days ahead of us,” Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva told subordinate officers in remarks released by the IDF.
While Israel has not claimed responsibility for Monday’s attack, which killed Iran’s top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general in Syria along with his deputy and five other IRGC officers, Tehran has blamed Jerusalem and vowed revenge. The IRGC is a US-designated terror group.
Complex days, indeed. A direct conflict between Iran and Israel is complicated by the fact that the two nations do not share a border; Iraq, Syria, and Jordan lie between them, and any direct strike in either direction would have to transit these nations’ airspace. Presumably, any such conflict will involve Iran’s proxies in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Gaza, and possibly ballistic missile attacks launched from Iran, which would of course invite retaliation in kind.
There are already indications of ongoing interference with GPS navigation systems in Israel. The IDF is believed to be causing this disruption to interfere with potential attacks.
GPS disruptions have been happening for months in northern Israel or areas close to Gaza, but have been less common in central Israel. The GPS signal disruptions have been part of the IDF’s efforts to prevent attacks on Israel.
And, of course, in the very worst case, Israel is believed to have from 80 to 400 nuclear warheads, and can deliver those by either the Jericho intermediate-range ballistic missiles or submarine-launched cruise missiles. That last should be of primary concern to Iran, as it possesses little or no antisubmarine warfare (ASW) capacity.
There are interesting times, indeed, in store for Israel and the Middle East.
