A week into the Islanders’ offseason and we only know one thing that was slightly in question: Lou Lamoriello will be back for a seventh season running hockey operations.

It’s been a largely successful tenure. There aren’t many experienced general managers who could have guided the Islanders through the tumult of the summer of 2018 and helped, whether through hiring Barry Trotz, naming Anders Lee captain or making a few key veteran additions, stabilize and even improve the franchise from 2018-2021. It was the most successful stretch in team history outside of the dynasty era and should be remembered as such.

Now, though, the Islanders are at a crossroads. Those three years of success have been muffled by three years of mediocrity-plus, a team that missed the playoffs once and had to hustle to get across the finish line twice, only to be bounced in the first round. The standard has been set. How can it be met now?

We’ll look at some of the major mistakes over Lamoriello’s six seasons at the helm here and how the Islanders can alter course going forward — not just for 2024-25, but beyond.

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What we learned from Islanders’ breakup day

The double-edged sword of loyalty

Lamoriello said it best on Friday: “We love loyalty. But it can’t impede progress.”

That realization may have come a bit too late for the Islanders and their GM, who rewarded his loyal veterans with contracts that now mostly look ugly. That’s a by-product of having a successful run; however, in the Isles’ case, success hasn’t meant Stanley Cup championships or even Final appearances. When the Lightning struggle to maneuver with bad contracts, they can look at their two Cup rings and feel some satisfaction.

For the Islanders, coming close to a pair of Finals doesn’t feel sufficient for the term-and-cap constraints they feel now. Lee finished strong after a difficult season but he’ll be 34 in July with two years left at an unmoveable $7-million cap hit. Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock were the signature defense pair on a defense-first team for several seasons and Lamoriello gave them both eight-year deals, albeit at reasonable cap hits. But Pelech has missed 21 and 24 games the last two seasons (years 2 and 3 of that contract) and Pulock just missed 24 games in year two of his deal.

The Islanders very much need to progress to adapt more to the 2024 NHL. Their contracts, however appropriate for services rendered, aren’t going to allow them to progress much. And given that those three players mentioned all have full no-trade clauses plus six other regulars who have full or partial no-trades, progress may be even further off.

The solution: Lamoriello has only jettisoned Josh Bailey from the Isles’ core in the last couple of seasons and that may have been easier than the current dilemma since Bailey never signed a deal with Lamoriello. Now, though, Lamoriello may have to move out a player he wanted long-term, either through a buyout — Lee’s deal is likely the most attractive for a buyout, with a cap savings of $ 4.125 million in 2024-25 and $2.775 million in 2025-26 — or through asking a player to waive a no-trade. Those are disruptive decisions and not to be undertaken lightly, but they may be best for this team now and in the future.

Anders Lee and Semyon Varlamov (Dennis Schneidler / USA TODAY Sports)

No on-the-fly retool the last two years

In talking to scouts and executives around the 2022-23 and 2023-24 trade deadlines, there was always chatter about what the Islanders would do. They were on the edge of the playoff race both years; in 2023 the Isles had pending UFA Scott Mayfield and this past season had a few veteran forwards in Brock Nelson, Kyle Palmieri and J-G Pageau that other teams would have at minimum explored options on.

Lamoriello declined to hold talks on any of those players. League sources said multiple teams inquired on Mayfield; at the 2023 deadline, the Hawks sent Jake McCabe as the centerpiece of a package that landed a conditional first-round pick and a future second-rounder. Luke Schenn, older and less reliable than Mayfield, went for a third-rounder. The Islanders could have easily gotten a prized asset or several assets for Mayfield, but they held onto him, made the playoffs and lost in six games.

This past deadline was trickier given the Isles had barely any UFAs that teams might have wanted — two sources with teams that spoke to Lamoriello said he would listen on Cal Clutterbuck or Matt Martin prior to the deadline but almost no one else. But when both of those teams asked about Pageau, the third-line center with two seasons left on his deal at a $5-million cap hit, they were told the Islanders weren’t going to move him. Pageau finished the season with 33 points and the Islanders were eliminated in five games.

One of the ways to avoid a full-on rebuild is to surgically alter the lineup whenever possible, even if that means a bit of short-term pain. Losing Mayfield for the stretch run in 2022-23 might have damaged the Isles’ playoff hopes but it would have set them up with a prime asset or two to either stock a fairly empty prospect pool or, as Lamoriello is wont to do, use those assets to acquire young, cost-controlled players. Lamoriello’s draft-day move in 2022 for Alexander Romanov is a deserved feather in the GM’s cap as Romanov, still just 24, was the best Islander defenseman in their short playoff stay.

And now, with Mayfield signed for six more years as a firmly entrenched No. 5 defenseman, it’s fair to wonder how the Islanders could have better allocated those cap dollars. The $3.5-million hit is not steep and will look good if Mayfield can rebound from an injury-marred season. But third-pair defensemen are not that difficult to find and certainly come cheaper than $ 3.5 million per.

And the reasoning behind not moving Pageau was an even bigger head-scratcher. The return would have been fairly meager but getting $ 5 million off the books the next two seasons would have been the greater asset management and an easy way to fiddle with a group that mostly felt stale this season.

The solution: The Islanders may very well be in the same spot at the 2024-25 deadline and potentially with Nelson and Palmieri as pending UFAs and Pageau with a year left beyond next season. Hesitating to change it up and give the team more summer flexibility would be a tough pill to swallow, given how the last two years went.

Overvaluing deadline pickups

Lamoriello made shrewd moves each of the years the Islanders went to the semifinals, trading for Pageau before the 2020 deadline and Palmieri before the 2021 deadline. Less shrewd was extending both players — Pageau immediately after the trade and Palmieri over the summer prior to the 2021-22 season. There was also the good/bad of acquiring Pierre Engvall at the 2023 deadline. The good: Acquiring a player who has speed, is under 30, and provided a real boost. The bad: Signing Engvall to a 7-year deal that already looks iffy after year one.

Both those players have contributed in positive ways to be sure and Lamoriello, like many GMs, prizes the high character that both Pageau and Palmieri have. Maintaining flexibility — especially during the COVID-constrained 2020-21 season, when the cap wasn’t going anywhere — seemed to be a bigger key than adding another 30-plus forward.

The solution: Should the Islanders be in a firmer position to add at the 2024-25 deadline, rentals are more than OK. Just look at the Rangers, who have rented frequently the last three years and have not concerned themselves with anything beyond adding to win that season.

Pierre Engvall (Minas Panagiotakis / Getty Images)

Assembling a team for today’s NHL style

The Isles got every bit of what they could out of their constructed roster under Trotz, winning with a grinding mentality, timely scoring and a supreme confidence in their ability to close out teams with a stronger will. Of course, they did so in seasons when they had months off before the postseason (2020) and after a 56-game season (2021) to allow their grind to stay effective into the playoffs.

In addition to bodies naturally breaking down over many years of playing that way, there’s also the matter of a new coach with a new system now. Patrick Roy wants his team to be aggressive and fast — to pucks, to opponents, to all three zones. They are not built to play that way over the long haul despite the modest success the team had after Roy took over.

Those long-term deals to veteran players, as well as mortgaging the future in prior seasons, have helped make the Islanders a team not for now or later but for before. If they are going to get faster and younger, it’s going to require a massive overhaul that likely won’t just take place in the next four months.

The solution: The Islanders should have only five untouchables on their roster right now: Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Noah Dobson, Romanov and Ilya Sorokin. Whether they can move anyone else is a real question but any headline-making trades — the Leafs’ Mitch Marner, the Ducks’ Trevor Zegras — would likely mean an opposing GM asking for Dobson or Sorokin. To keep the future looking somewhat bright, the Isles have to just say no to trading any of their cornerstones.

The Trotz-Lambert transition

It seems clearer now, even though neither man would ever discuss it publicly, that Trotz wasn’t going to stay coaching the Islanders without an extension and maybe not at all if he knew after the 2021-22 season that he was going to be the heir apparent to David Poile in running the Predators, Trotz’s longtime NHL home.

So that move feels less baffling. Immediately going to Lane Lambert, Trotz’s longtime associate coach, without a proper search prior to the 2022-23 season seems like two opposite things at once: A very Lamoriello move in being so decisive in targeting who he felt was best to take over and yet also a very anti-Lamoriello move to not identify the best coach available and go get him.

So Lamoriello opted for continuity in the voice the players heard and playing style, for the most part. Lambert, like many NHL coaches before him, wasn’t the right person to take over for Trotz, whose way with players, fans and media has almost no equal in the league now. It may have been too much for anyone; what was needed, with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, was a clean break from the Trotz era. The Islanders are there now, but they set themselves back by doing it 127 games later.

The solution: Already taken care of.

Indecision on prospects

The Isles’ very few legitimate NHL prospects are not exactly growing in number. Isaiah George, the 20220 fourth-round pick, is having a strong year with London of the OHL and would be a good addition on left defense. Alex Jefferies, Matt Maggio and William Dufour may have a shot at some NHL games, but none is a prized prospect. The goaltending depth is so thin the Islanders gave Marcus Hogberg, last in the NHL in 2021, a two-year deal (one-way the second year) to be a legit No. 3 goalie.

Samuel Bolduc and Oliver Wahlstrom were not so long ago among the prospects with the brightest futures. But after 2-3 years with the Isles, both are further away from being regulars than ever before. Wahlstrom’s knee injury last season was a killer and he never seemed to recover his fluid style; Bolduc lost all confidence in 2022-23 and barely cracked the lineup after Roy arrived.

The Islanders have too few prospects to wait and see what they become once they get to the NHL. Two league sources said that one Eastern Conference team offered a pending UFA forward for Wahlstrom at the deadline; Lamoriello declined, of course, and just handing away a first-round pick is probably not how you get to be a GM for 35 years. But Wahlstrom seems likely to leave this summer anyway, either without a qualifying offer or in another trade, so why not take a flier at the deadline?

The solution: Simon Holmstrom and Kyle MacLean both benefited from extra time in Bridgeport and they are now the two young forwards most likely to start next season on the roster. Lamoriello has rarely been known to rush prospects but, as with Bolduc, once they become waiver-eligible, making a quicker evaluation on them seems wiser than letting them waste away in press boxes.

A lean front office

It’s been an Islander hallmark for years — a general manager with very little support staff. For decades it was because Islanders owners didn’t want to spend on front-office salaries. Now, Scott Malkin hasn’t seemed to blink at spending, but Lamoriello keeps his circle tight. It’s just his son, Chris, and capologist Steve Pellegrini, along with scouting and development holdovers from the Garth Snow era, a few trusted old friends (David Conte, Jacques Lemaire) and a few recent retirees (Johnny Boychuk, Dennis Seidenberg).

The Islanders also use as much if not more data than most teams, with a six-person in-house staff and multiple outside firms to process and provide exclusive analytics.

Do the Islanders need more people in their front office? Not if Lamoriello doesn’t want them there. The line of succession may not run through the younger Lamoriello, so perhaps one or two outside perspectives could be needed. Lamoriello and Roy have started a good partnership the last four months and indications were on Friday that Roy will play a role in shaping the roster beyond this season. After six years of mostly status quo, perhaps it’s time to change things up. Even an 81-year-old Lamoriello can adapt.

The solution: Lamoriello does what he does and he does it well, so far be it from this corner to suggest specific changes to his management structure. If Malkin wants to start thinking about the future beyond Lamoriello, though, it might behoove the owner to start down that road — and he has a longtime NHL management member, John Collins, in house now to help identify candidates who could help.

(Photo: Ben Jackson / NHLI via Getty Images)