How does the Mikko Rantanen trade affect Carolina's Stanley Cup chances?

The Carolina Hurricanes just sent a wake-up call to the rest of the NHL: They mean business. This might finally be the year.

That’s the hope after they acquired Mikko Rantanen from the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for Martin Necas, Jack Drury and some picks. It’s an earth-shattering deal that signals the team is all-in and completely alters Carolina’s make up for this year. Maybe even beyond if the Hurricanes can get Rantanen, a pending UFA, to sign an extension. 

What the Hurricanes have been missing for years has been pure game-breaking talent up front — a true superstar scorer to pair with franchise center Sebastian Aho. That hasn’t been for a lack of trying: They were in on Matthew Tkachuk and they traded for Jake Guentzel at last year’s deadline. 

Star-power has been a pressing need for Carolina for a long time and in Rantanen, it feels like the Hurricanes finally have someone who can be The Guy. The Hurricanes have long needed an elite forward who can tilt a playoff series on its head with his dynamic offensive ability and Rantanen certainly fits the bill. 

There aren’t many players in the league who carry more value than Rantanen and he looks to be a sizeable upgrade over Necas (and Guentzel for that matter). Based on their projected Net Ratings, Carolina added over 10 goals to its bottom line with this trade, though the gap is a bit closer with how Necas has played this season. 

That also means the Avalanche likely subtracted 10 goals from theirs. It’s certainly possible that Necas’ offense can be unlocked further playing with Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, but Necas has real defensive concerns and lacks Rantanen’s track record. Drury is young and helps the team’s depth, but not nearly enough to make up for the talent downgrade from Rantanen to Necas.

The question now is how this blockbuster deal affects each team’s pursuit of the Stanley Cup. A 10-goal swing has massive ramifications and we obviously ran the numbers to see what it all means for both Carolina and Colorado.

Before the trade, the Hurricanes were projected to finish the season with 106.2 points and a 9.6 percent chance to win the Stanley Cup — the top mark in the East. With Rantanen (and Taylor Hall!), those numbers jump up considerably. Carolina’s projected point total leaps to 107.5 points while its chances of winning the Cup jump to 12.7 percent.

The jump in Cup odds is the key number here, especially within the context of the rest of the East. With Rantanen, the Hurricanes have created some separation between them and the rest of the conference to become the clear-cut favorites to reach the final. While there’s still some catching up to do between the Hurricanes and the league-favorite Edmonton Oilers, this trade helps bridge the gap. 

As for the Avalanche, this trade does move the needle in the wrong direction. 

Before the trade, Colorado looked like it would be right in the contending mix in the West. When the Avalanche are healthy, they’re scary and that shows with a 5.6 percent chance of winning the Stanley Cup, the seventh-highest mark in the league. That’s despite being projected for 100.4 points, the 11th-highest mark. Now, after swapping out Rantanen for Necas and Drury, the team’s Stanley Cup chances have dropped to 3.9 percent, the 10th-best mark in the league, and to 99.5 points.

All that can change once these players suit up for their new teams. Maybe Rantanen isn’t as good away from MacKinnon. Maybe Necas is better away from Carolina’s system. No one knows for sure how either player will look in a new locale.

For now, based on what we know about the players involved, it’s hard not to see this as a major win for the Hurricanes. They got their guy, and they now look like the team to beat in the East.

(Top photo of Mikko Rantanen: Ron Chenoy / Imagn Images)