The Scott Boras Revenge Tour is on.
Matt Chapman was one of the Boras Four, lingering on the free-agent market last offseason until March 3. The six-year, $151 million extension he reached with the San Francisco Giants late Wednesday was a decisive win for Chapman, something of an exception for Boras and a significant development for another of Boras’ potential free-agent clients, Alex Bregman.
Boras players normally seek to establish their full values on the open market. Chapman, however, clearly was comfortable in San Francisco, where he reunited with his old manager and third-base coach from the Oakland A’s, Bob Melvin and Matt Williams. It’s also reasonable to assume Chapman wanted to move quicker than he did last offseason.
His first deal with the Giants – three years, $54 million with two player options – gave him the ability to become a free agent again after either this season or the next. His re-entry into the market seemed all but inevitable. To this point, he is batting .247 with 22 homers and a .778 OPS while playing his usual outstanding defense at third base. Using fWAR, it is his best season since 2019 and third best overall.
With this deal, however, Chapman seemingly is getting everything he wanted. Not just a rapid resolution, but a deal that, when combined with his $18 million salary this season, gives him full market value, beyond initial media projections.
Prior to last offseason, MLB Trade Rumors pegged Chapman for a six-year, $150 million deal. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden had him at six years, $127 million, while The Athletic’s Tim Britton had him at five years, $95 million. Britton, however, mentioned Kris Bryant, another Boras client, as the possible high end. Bryant got seven years, $182 million. Chapman, combining his two contracts with the Giants, receives seven years, $169 million.
The Chapman deal does not necessarily mean Boras will adopt a different strategy this offseason; the agent attributed the delays in the signings of Chapman, center fielder Cody Bellinger and left-handers Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery not to his own maneuverings, but a depressed market (Montgomery later left Boras for Wasserman). Still, considering Boras’ large list of prominent potential free-agent clients, including Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Pete Alonso, not to mention Snell, Bregman and Bellinger, it certainly doesn’t hurt him to start clearing the decks.
Chapman has clearly found a comfortable fit in San Francisco. (Justin Berl/Getty Images)
Bregman, who at 30 is a year younger than Chapman, now becomes the most prominent free-agent third baseman available. His current team, the Houston Astros, will face a void at the position. So will the Arizona Diamondbacks if they do not re-sign Eugenio Suarez, who is enjoying a monster second half.
The Detroit Tigers, run by Bregman’s former manager in Houston Astros, AJ Hinch, might be in the market at third base. So might the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays. And don’t forget the New York Yankees, who could move Jazz Chisholm Jr. to second in place of Gleyber Torres, opening up third. Also: Bregman originally was a shortstop. Other teams might pursue him for other infield positions.
Bregman had a slow start to this season and currently is dealing with a sore elbow, but since May 9 he is batting .286 with 20 homers and an .847 OPS – numbers in line with his career marks. George Springer and Carlos Correa, other members of the 2017-18 Astros clubs that stole signs illegally, received big free-agent deals. There is no reason to believe Bregman will be any different.
For Boras, the entire scenario is reminiscent of 2018-19, when he had another star-studded free-agent class but was coming off something of a trying offseason, one that prompted me to ask whether he was “sufficiently adapting to a changing market.”
Hah! Boras had one of his best winters, blitzing the winter meetings with a combined $814 million in deals for Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg, and negotiating more than $1 billion in free-agent contracts overall.
This offseason looks to be more of the same, even as a dispute lingers between Major League Baseball and the bankrupt broadcasting company, Diamond Sports Group, renewing concerns about whether the affected clubs will spend.
Soto seems likely to blow past $500 million. Burnes, even after a subpar August, could top $200 million. Snell might rebound in a way similar to Chapman. And while Alonso might not approach Freddie Freeman’s $162 million contract, a player with four straight 30-homer seasons and five overall is going to be in demand.
The Boras Revenge Tour is on. Chapman was the first strike.
(Top photo of Matt Chapman and Scott Boras in March 2024: AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
