After victory over Manchester City in the FA Cup final, Manchester United’s hierarchy is undertaking a post-season review that will include analysing the work of Erik ten Hag and deciding if he stays as manager.
It is unclear whether a second trophy in as many seasons will be enough for Ten Hag to be kept on — and even before the final, United had started contacting potential replacements, with the review also considering who, if anyone, could improve the club’s performance on the pitch.
“Two trophies in two years is not bad, three finals in two years is not bad. If they don’t want me, then I go somewhere else to win trophies, because that is what I do,” said Ten Hag after the final.
His team’s performance was certainly the best argument for some time to keep him on. United were organised without the ball against City, looking to have found a solution to their “midfield gap” this season. With Sofyan Amrabat offering reliable cover alongside Kobbie Mainoo in a deeper role, Lisandro Martinez swept up tirelessly behind them, giving United a solid base from which to press.
Further ahead, Scott McTominay applied pressure alongside the tireless Bruno Fernandes, flanked by the two wingers to form a 4-2-4 out of possession — much like Spurs did against City a fortnight before — making it difficult for City to progress through the middle.
In what was only Martinez’s 11th start of the season, supporters of Ten Hag have been quick to point to injuries as a hindrance to the Dutchman’s ability to implement his style of play. Even Pep Guardiola, his opposite number on Saturday, said that he “completely agreed” with the manager’s sentiments that they have been without a full squad for much of the season.
“You have to be fit, fit, fit, otherwise you cannot use the players,” said Guardiola. “They have a lot of problems, and when that happens, the manager suffers a lot.”
But United are continuing to sound out candidates and with Ten Hag saying he was heading on holiday on Sunday, it remains to be seen if he will return to the club.
Here, The Athletic analyses the United manager’s performance and the cases for those who could replace him, including Mauricio Pochettino, Thomas Tuchel, Thomas Frank, Gareth Southgate, Graham Potter, Roberto De Zerbi and Michel.
Erik ten Hag
Ten Hag is the fifth permanent manager to attempt to restore United to the heights reached under Sir Alex Ferguson, but if his 2022-23 debut season’s third-placed finish and Carabao Cup final win constituted a grade of B- in his end-of-year report, 2023-24 is harder to evaluate. While an eighth-placed finish in the Premier League is United’s lowest in 34 years, the cup final was another joyous high to bring a consistently chaotic season to a close.
United’s peak performance period under Ten Hag was arguably one year ago, and the data supports this argument.
To gauge this, we can look at United’s ‘ClubElo’ rating, which is a measure of team strength that allocates points for every result, weighted by the quality of the opposition faced.
As you can see below, United’s team strength rose under Ten Hag last season after a difficult start. In the past 12 months, however, the seemingly inevitable post-Ferguson slide has befallen the 54-year-old Dutchman, with his overall tenure showing little improvement.
Look across the whole period since the summer of 2013, and it shows how rarely United have displayed the levels observed late in the Ferguson reign…
It is difficult to quantify the impact a manager can have at a club beyond just, well, having good players, but looking at a team’s approach provides an insight into how a manager likes their team to play rather than the success he has.
Using The Athletic’s playstyle wheel, which outlines how a team look to play compared with Europe’s top seven domestic leagues, we can get a broad idea of a team’s approach in and out of possession. If you look at Manchester City and Arsenal, it is possession-based. If you were to look at Liverpool, it is transitional.
Looking at Manchester United, it is… confused.
With one of the poorest defensive metrics in Europe (chance prevention: eight out of 99), and a share of the ball that is just over average (possession: 61 out of 99), United’s style has been based on counter-attacking (circulate: 58 out of 99) rather than territorial dominance (field tilt: 49 out of 99).
“I can’t play like Ajax because I have different players,” said Ten Hag this season. “I came here with my philosophy, based on possession, but I wanted to combine it with the DNA of Manchester United, the players and their characters.
“Last year, we saw what that was. We played very good football. This season, the philosophy is not different, only I want to emphasise more on going direct. We want to press from different blocks and then go direct.”
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Previous conceptions of the ‘Manchester United DNA’ have been based on fast, direct, attacking football, built on dominance and high energy.
INEOS chairman Sir Jim Ratcliffe has already spoken decisively on the issue of on-pitch identity, assuring United fans that he and his staff will make the decisions on the playing style.
“We will decide — plus the CEO, sporting director, recruitment guys — what the style of football is,” said Ratcliffe, “and that will be the Manchester United style of football that the coach will have to play.”
Ratcliffe and Ten Hag at United’s training centre in January (Manchester United via Getty Images)
So, who could that coach be, if not Ten Hag?
One man United have spoken to is a coach who was on the club’s books only a couple of years ago. Kieran McKenna held roles as United academy coach and progressed to the first-team setup under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Ralf Rangnick.
But while his stock is understandably high after guiding Ipswich Town to back-to-back promotions since joining them for his first job in senior management in December 2021, McKenna has now committed his future to them, having also been considered by Chelsea.
So let’s look at the candidates who remain in the running, starting with one who is no stranger to being linked with United.
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Mauricio Pochettino
Mauricio Pochettino had barely cleared his desk at Chelsea before being linked with another Premier League role.
On Tuesday of last week, Chelsea announced Pochettino had left by mutual consent after a single season as head coach, but the news came as little surprise given the public issues that have played out at Stamford Bridge in recent months.
Pochettino’s preferred style is grounded in high intensity and pressing, and Chelsea’s numbers for the season point to a side who did not step off when out of possession (intensity: 89 out of 99).
Issues in both penalty boxes were a key narrative of their season. Chelsea significantly improved their goalscoring output from 2022-23 — when they managed only 38 goals in the 38 Premier League games — and their underlying ‘chance creation’ (83 out of 99) showed a similar upward trend.
However, that seemed to come at the expense of a dreadfully poor defensive record (chance prevention: 32 out of 99) — only marginally better than Manchester United’s.
Chelsea’s 1.42 non-penalty expected goals (xG) conceded per 90 minutes invariably gave them a mountain to climb in each match, and Pochettino struggled to find that balance for a lot of the season.
Pochettino’s Chelsea created and conceded a lot of chances (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Pochettino’s time in west London was as much about issues off the field as on it, but there is little doubt that he has the experience of handling the pressure of a job at the top level.
Thomas Tuchel
If it is a manager who recently departed from one of Europe’s elite clubs you want, then Thomas Tuchel is a perfect addition to the shortlist.
Tuchel recently reiterated that he won’t be Bayern Munich’s head coach next season, so he could be an appealing candidate for United, having shown his coaching quality in Germany, England and France.
Despite a disappointing season relative to Bayern’s standards, the underlying numbers from Tuchel’s side show how dominant they have still been in both boxes. Competing with a history-making, invincible Bayer Leverkusen side was not part of the plan, but Bayern’s 1.6 xG difference per 90 — which accounts for the quality of chances created and conceded — was the best of any side across Europe’s top five leagues.
For context, United’s xG difference sat at -0.3 per 90 — good enough for, er, 72nd on the list.
Tuchel’s tactical acumen is undeniable, but question marks over his temperament might be a factor that works against him. Across his three most recent roles at Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea and Bayern Munich, he averaged a tenure of one year, nine months and 15 days.
If United are looking for stability with a long-term vision, Tuchel might not be the best man to hand the keys to.
Tuchel is turning his back on Bayern Munich (Michael Regan – UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images)
Gareth Southgate
Gareth Southgate has largely been linked with the role because of his connections with INEOS director of sport Sir Dave Brailsford.
Southgate has overseen a transformation of England’s reputation since he took the role as national team manager in 2016, progressing England to a World Cup quarter-final and semi-final as well as a European Championship final, losing to Italy on penalties in 2021.
As he heads into this summer’s Euro 2024 in Germany, Southgate has shown ruthlessness with Jordan Henderson and Marcus Rashford among the surprising absentees from his 33-player preliminary squad.
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While Southgate has been flexible when adapting his system between a back three and a back four, international football is tactically and qualitatively different from club football. Questions will be asked of the 53-year-old’s ability to adapt to the demands of domestic football, having not managed at club level since his dismissal from Middlesbrough in 2009.
Graham Potter
Sticking with English managers, Graham Potter’s brief time at Chelsea was about as successful as the club’s financial advice, but his stock has arguably risen since being relieved of his duties at Stamford Bridge just over a year ago.
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More of a head coach than a manager, Potter has shown at other clubs his ability to improve players without resorting to significant transfer spending, which will surely be of interest as United look to stay within the boundaries of financial fair play (FFP) rules.
One of Potter’s strengths is his capacity to develop young players. He arrived at Brighton as Dan Ashworth (then-technical director) was churning the squad and trying to lower the average age. Moises Caicedo, Alexis Mac Allister, Leandro Trossard, Robert Sanchez and Marc Cucurella made Premier League debuts under Potter, improved and were sold for significant fees to ‘Big Six’ Premier League sides.
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That is particularly relevant, style aside, given United’s new generation of academy talent.
Alejandro Garnacho and Kobbie Mainoo were part of the under-18 team who won the FA Youth Cup in 2022, and for a club who have endured endless transfer problems, overpaying and missing more than they are hitting, it would make sense to recruit a head coach who can work with the academy talent.
Potter helped nurture a young team at Brighton (Lindsey Parnaby/AFP via Getty Images)
However, Potter’s style took time to implement at Brighton. Ending the 2021-22 season in ninth came after two bottom-half finishes. They often lacked a cutting edge (becoming the team to look at for xG underperformance) and though they were tactically flexible, they rarely blew teams away.
Potter had only seven Premier League wins by three or more goals in 120 games, and three of those came in his final 10 matches.
Roberto De Zerbi
Comparatively, another former Brighton manager, Roberto De Zerbi, could be a more attractive option.
His pattern-based style would be quick to implement, giving ideal roles to United’s speedy wingers, who would need to make plenty of runs in behind, and Mainoo certainly has the press resistance to play on the edge of his box.
De Zerbi’s Brighton were at their best away to Manchester United last September, winning 3-1, with all three goals coming via slick passing moves from back-to-front.
65 – Brighton’s three goals at Old Trafford against Manchester United had a total of 65 passes in the build-up, the most by a team in a Premier League game that Opta has on record (2006-07 onwards).
18 Danny Welbeck
30 Pascal Groß
17 João PedroDeZerbiBall. pic.twitter.com/EXLM3kHaPn
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) September 18, 2023
However, United showed in the 2022-23 FA Cup semi-final how much De Zerbi’s style suffers when teams sit off and do not engage in the press. That flaw might apply less at United, where the individual quality of players is higher, but it is not something De Zerbi ever really fixed at Brighton.
“I can’t change, because our idea reflects my character, my history, my DNA. I can’t play in another way,” said De Zerbi last year.
His dogmatism, coupled with injuries and a European schedule, contributed to Brighton’s leakiness last season. They took 20 league games to keep a clean sheet and conceded their most in a Premier League season (62).
Given United’s own defensive problems, the out-of-possession side of De Zerbi’s approach is particularly concerning.
Considering United’s issues protecting their own goal, a manager who has overseen sustained defensive solidity could appeal to Ratcliffe and Brailsford.
Thomas Frank
Of the more pragmatic options, Thomas Frank could be a shrewd stylistic match.
The Dane has overseen Brentford’s seamless rise from mid-table in the Championship to a fourth straight season in the Premier League, securing two comfortable mid-table finishes along the way, and has refined a rock-solid defensive system that retains the kind of aggressive, off-the-ball running and counter-attacking that would tick plenty of boxes for the playstyle seekers at INEOS.
Frank’s Brentford are well organised defensively (Alex Livesey/Getty Images)
Even after a trickier season this time around — losing Ivan Toney, their top scorer who is crucial to their direct approach, to suspension until January, as well as fellow forward Bryan Mbeumo for three months through injury — the underlying data since Brentford’s promotion is strong.
They rank ninth for xG conceded per 90 minutes across those three years, while their ‘best-of-the-rest’ pressing figures, including PPDA, point to a side keen to assert themselves and engage high.
Frank would bring a clear tactical philosophy. His 5-3-2 formation is combative, disciplined, and a nightmare to play against. In the past three seasons, only Brighton have taken more than Brentford’s 35 points against the Big Six, with the west London side securing two wins over Manchester City, three over Chelsea, and that 4-0 thrashing of United in Ten Hag’s second game all fresh in the memory.
The fact that Frank has overseen Brentford’s rise into the Premier League for the first time and has now kept them there for three consecutive seasons speaks to the transformative job he has performed.
An experienced coach and a good motivator boasting long-term success on a lower budget, Frank would be a safe bet to stop the freefall at Old Trafford.
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Michel
Girona’s Michel has been linked with a move to the Premier League after leading the previously little-known Spanish club into the European Cup/Champions League for the first time in their 94-year history. The 48-year-old is not the youngest but has shown himself to be among the most energetic, intelligent minds in European football.
Michel has been on some journey with Girona, picking up a side still reeling from a second-consecutive Segunda play-off final defeat at the start of the 2021-22 season. In the two and a half years since, Michel has taken Girona up to the first division and kept them safe before embarking on a scarcely believable title charge alongside Real Madrid and Barcelona this season, before settling for a third-place finish.
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Michel’s style hinges on inventive movement and bravery in possession to pull the opposition apart. In an early season trip to Sevilla, the coach was caught demanding his players take “two touches minimum” and to play “street football” in the face of an aggressive press, insisting on personality to play through the pressure.
That philosophy shows through in the numbers: only Real Madrid and Las Palmas have completed more passes in their own half this season, while Girona have the third-lowest direct speed of any La Liga side, pointing to a patient, considered build-up.
Michel’s tactics are adaptable and creative, epitomised by the changing roles of Miguel Gutierrez throughout the season: a left-back turned central midfielder, winger turned box-crashing No 8.
Girona’s manager is intense and obsessive — and a Guardiola-esque communicator from the touchline.
Whatever the outcome of this week’s meeting, it will undoubtedly be one of the biggest summers in United’s history.
As well as experiencing their first pre-season since the INEOS investment was agreed in December along with the anticipated arrival of Ashworth as sporting director, there will be big decisions to be made both on and off the pitch.
(Top photo: Getty Images)
