With MLB’s trade deadline just a few days away, the analysis of the St. Louis Cardinals focuses on who they will add to improve a team that entered play Saturday within striking distance of a wild-card spot.
President of baseball operations John Mozeliak intends to buy at the deadline, and the Cardinals are expected to be in on both the starting and relief pitching markets. The market has been undefined for most of the month, but trade action began to pick up late Thursday, finally giving executives around the league a better picture of what this year’s deadline looks like.
“Our focus is pretty narrow at this point,” Mozeliak said earlier in the week. “We’re going to continue to try to work towards that. In terms of how our club is playing right now, we feel pretty good about where our team is, and I don’t want to use six days to make a judgment on what we feel in the last two months that we’ve been able to accomplish. There’s a lot of optimism right now in our clubhouse. What we’re trying to do is find ways to get better.”
But for all the speculation about who Mozeliak and his front office will target or acquire, there is an equal amount of decision-making to do with the current roster. St. Louis’ roster redundancy was a common discussion point over the first half of the season. Now, choices loom regarding three long-time Cardinals as the team looks to free up some roster flexibility.
A trade deadline can often make or break a team’s season. But just because a team is buying doesn’t mean the market is a one-way street. Let’s take a look at those three decisions the Cardinals need to make within their roster.
Carlson is the source of trade speculation for the third straight summer, though each occasion has varied in its reasoning. In 2022 St. Louis viewed the outfielder, who had finished third in 2021 National League Rookie of the Year voting, as a key member of their future. At the time, the Cardinals were heavily involved in trade talks with the Nationals for Juan Soto. They were ultimately outbid by the San Diego Padres and backed out of negotiations the day before the deadline.
Carlson was looped into a potential return package for Soto, but the deal was far from finished. Mozeliak told reporters after the deadline that Carlson was “by no means why we did not get this trade done.” He also acknowledged Carlson’s rising status in the organization, believing he could be the team’s long-term center fielder.
Twelve months later, that sentiment was beginning to waver. Carlson regressed, and a sprained ankle in May that he tried to play through before surrendering to season-ending surgery, didn’t help. When Mozeliak decided to sell at last year’s deadline, he expressed a preference to only trade players on expiring contracts. He held on to Carlson, though it was clear that the club no longer viewed him as the team’s center fielder, even when healthy.
This year Carlson’s role has been dramatically reduced. His strong spring was derailed by a sprained left shoulder in an outfield collision on the second to last day of spring training. The emergence of Michael Siani in center field and Alec Burleson offensively cemented those two in the lineup. Carlson has been regulated to a defensive replacement who occasionally starts against left-handers.
He’s hitting .200 with a .519 OPS and his defense — once the best part of his game — has fallen dramatically. Carlson played arguably his worst game as a Cardinal in Friday’s 10-8 loss to the Nationals, striking out three times and misplaying two line drives, including one that served as a three-run triple in the 10th inning.
forrrreverrrr young!!! pic.twitter.com/tX7PY11vbM
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) July 27, 2024
At this point, it does not appear the Cardinals have a place for Carlson, especially when factoring in their rather one-dimensional bench. The team needs to improve against left-handed pitching — the Cardinals own the second-lowest average (.266) and OPS (.633) in the majors. Their lefty-heavy bench already puts them at a disadvantage. If they aren’t going to play Carlson, they would be better off finding a trade partner. Carlson’s value is considerably lower than in 2022, but he’s a switch-hitting outfielder who can play all three positions, and he’s cost-controlled for two more years. A change of scenery might help.
Carlson is 25 years old and won’t be a free agent until 2027. He still has potential, though it’s unlikely he’ll reach it in St. Louis.
For five years, Giovanny Gallegos has been a Cardinals bullpen staple. He isn’t just the team’s most-used reliever. No team in baseball has used a reliever more than the Cardinals have used Gallegos in his tenure.
But Gallegos has fallen out of favor. After an abysmal April, Gallegos’ ERA ballooned to 12.00 on May 5. His velocity dropped significantly and he went on the injured list shortly after with right shoulder impingement. Andrew Kittredge and Ryan Fernandez stepped up and the club has liked what it’s seen out of rookies Kyle Leahy and Chris Roycroft. This makes Gallegos expendable, even if his results are better since returning from the IL.
Gallegos is the longest-tenured Cardinal and a favorite among the clubhouse and staff. The coaching staff widely respects him for his willingness to take the ball, a trait that wasn’t always prominent in past bullpens. But his role at this time is essentially mop-up duty, and there are pitchers, like Leahy (Triple A) or Riley O-Brien (rehab assignment) who St. Louis would like to see more of.
If the club believes there are more effective right-handed relief options than Gallegos, they could be inclined to deal him, similar to how they traded shortstop Edmundo Sosa in 2022. Sosa was well-liked and served a role, but the team believed they had a better option (in this case, Paul DeJong) in the minors. Sosa was traded to Philadelphia for JoJo Romero. With Gallegos on the final year of his two-year, $11 million guaranteed deal, a team would be taking a two-month flier on him, meaning St. Louis would likely have to cover a portion of the salary. But it is a scenario the Cardinals could explore, as it would allow the club to free up space in the bullpen and possibly net something of a return. However, if the organization believes there is a lane for Gallegos to continue pitching effectively, they’ll exercise it. The decision is whether that lane is more effective than other internal options.
It’s been a challenging year for Tommy Edman, who was expected to be ready for Opening Day after offseason wrist surgery but has yet to pay this season. The good news for the utility man is that his wrist is currently giving him no issue. The bad news is that a sprained ankle — suffered while taking groundballs at Busch Stadium — has hindered his rehab assignment. Edman missed roughly a week of games when soreness in his ankle flared up but returned to action a few days ago.
Edman had played in six rehab games for Double-A Springfield but has yet to play the field. He’s only been a designated hitter, which figures to be part of a lengthy rehab process. It’s unclear when he could return to the major leagues, but Mozeliak said the next seven to 10 days will be pivotal in Edman’s evaluation.
The Cardinals must decide their usage plan for Edman, and how he can slot into a crowded outfield. The current plan is to make Edman a super utility once more, though he’ll see time in center field with lefties on the opposing mound. There is also intrigue from contending teams regarding Edman, even with his injury. At least two teams, per a source, have inquired about Edman’s status.
Edman is somewhat expendable — Donovan can also serve as a super-utility — but St. Louis would need a strong offer to entertain the notion. Teams value Edman for the same reason the Cardinals do: his versatility, as a switch-hitter and a defender. Edman signed a two-year, $16 million extension before the season to cover his remaining arbitration years. He is due for roughly $8 million in 2025, meaning he’s also cost-controlled.
The Cardinals haven’t firmly put Edman on the block, but they’ll listen for the right offer. At this time, however, the bigger pending decision is figuring out what they can reasonably expect his production to be when (or if) he returns from injury.
(Photo of Dylan Carlson: Daniel Kucin Jr. / USA Today)
