Can the Edmonton Oilers ice three scoring lines in 2024-25?

As a rookie, Connor McDavid established himself as an outstanding offensive player in all disciplines.

At five-on-five during that 2015-16 season, McDavid posted a 4.52 points per 60 total with wingers Pat Maroon and Jordan Eberle. In the same season, young phenom Leon Draisaitl teamed up with Taylor Hall and centre Teddy Purcell on a unit that averaged 3.23 points per 60.

The third line during that year (and it was often the second line due to injury) was any unit that contained Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. His lines posted 2.41 points per 60, often with names like Benoit Pouliot and Nail Yakupov alongside.

How often have the Oilers eclipsed those numbers since McDavid’s freshman season? Can this edition of the Oilers deliver strong numbers across three lines offensively five-on-five? Here’s a look.

The No. 1 line

The Oilers No. 1 line is easy to identify. Just find the trio McDavid played with most often and that’s the top unit. These aren’t the most effective lines in each season (that would be a steady diet of McDavid-Draisaitl) but the most minutes played as a trio.

We are looking for the line that has the most total minutes in a season, and (for the second and third lines) making certain no one is duplicated in any year. That creates some unusual lines and totals (and excludes some prominent names) but also reflects several coaches using McDavid and Draisaitl (together and apart) in an effort to cover off for a lack of depth and balance.

For the No. 1 line, there are no surprises in the group of wingers, or the numbers (McDavid is a ridiculous offensive player and it is reflected here). What does stand out is the recent chemistry with Zach Hyman, which is key to the team developing two or more scoring lines.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick 

The peak unit was Hyman-Draisaitl with the captain in 2022-23, but that combination leaves the second line vulnerable.

Last season, using Nugent-Hopkins with Hyman on the top unit delivered impressive results. Chances are that unit will land a little below those totals in the season to come (more on why in a minute).

Coach Kris Knoblauch may be tempted to run Jeff Skinner in RNH’s spot next season, but he can be secure in the knowledge that last year’s top trio can deliver supreme offence at five-on-five.

The No. 2 line

The drop off from the No. 1 line to the second line has been like stepping into an elevator shaft over much of the last decade.

A reminder, these are the second most used lines that exclude McDavid and his linemates on the top line each season.

When Draisaitl appears on the second line, this unit is productive. When the big man disappears from the second line, the falloff offensively has been shocking.

There are dozens of men on this list who were batting out of order.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick 

Some lines in this group ran so hot the ice tilted in Edmonton’s favour.

The most famous second line was put together just past Christmas 2019, when Kailer Yamamoto was recalled and deployed with Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins. The unit was the hottest in hockey until the pandemic.

As good as many of the names on this list were, only the captain and Draisaitl had the pure skill that allowed massive scoring at five-on-five. Last season’s romp by Draisaitl while playing with Warren Foegele and Ryan McLeod proves the point.

He makes lesser players better. In the season ahead, the big man will have the best linemates (non-McDavid division) of his NHL career at five-on-five.

No. 3 line

Over the years, Oilers coaches have been criticized for running the two impact centres together. When looking at the results from the second line over a wide swath of the last decade (2016-2021), that criticism is merited.

However, by the time the roster reaches the No. 3 line, the thrust of the blame must land squarely on the general manager. There simply isn’t enough talent to score goals at five-on-five.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick 

These are the top unduplicated lines, by season, via Dobber prospects. It’s a dire picture, but not a huge surprise to Oilers fans who lived it.

The talent level available for Edmonton coaches once the McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins and (later) Hyman options were exhausted bring us to below NHL level talent by the third line.

As is the case with the second line above, there are some spikes in performance (the 2023-24 line was impressive in a small sample). From 2016 through the last couple of seasons, there simply wasn’t enough talent.

Based on this evidence, it’s clear that even running Draisaitl on a distinct second line wouldn’t have been enough for this team to ice three scoring lines.

What about this season? Three scoring lines?

A possible solution

During August, I run a “reasonable expectation” series that estimates scoring for each Oilers player. Much has changed since then, but it’s possible to revisit those numbers and project the scoring for three individual scoring lines in 2024-25.

Here are the projections (five-on-five) for the top nine Oilers forwards.

All numbers five-on-five

Estimates are based on five-on-five minutes and previous results versus age and changes in deployment.

The top line scored 66 five-on-five goals last season, together and apart over the entire campaign. My projection is slightly lower, due partly to a projected lowering of ice time and possible time away from the Mattias Ekholm-Evan Bouchard pairing this coming year.

It’s also reasonable to expect a less explosive season from Hyman.

The second trio sees a spike, as the Draisaitl line scored 43 one year ago. This group should see a major lift in offence at five-on-five in 2024-25.

The third line remains a low-scoring unit despite Adam Henrique’s presence. The Oilers may have had a better chance to deploy three scoring lines if Dylan Holloway and Ryan McLeod returned, but the summer didn’t turn out that way.

Bottom line 

Based on numbers and projections, this version of the Oilers is a quantum leap better at No. 2 line five-on-five offence.

There should be no surprise in that discovery, Draisaitl’s linemates for next season tower over the names that came before.

The Oilers finally found a second scoring line.

Time to search for a third scoring unit. Evander Kane playing 50-plus games would help, and remember the name Matt Savoie.

(Photo of Leon Draisaitl and Evander Kane: Candice Ward / USA Today)