Can Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington elevate the Mavericks? Analyzing their fit in Dallas

The Dallas Mavericks, for the third straight trade deadline, meaningfully reshaped their roster around Luka Dončić. With five straight wins — three of which came after the deadline — the early returns have been impressive. Thanks to one of the league’s easier remaining schedules and the roster finally nearing full health, Dallas should learn how good its team really is during this stretch run.

But amid these final 28 games, Dallas must also acclimate the team’s two new acquisitions. To discuss them in more depth, I asked Josh Robbins, who covers the Washington Wizards for The Athletic, and Dave DuFour, one of the hosts for “The Athletic NBA Show” podcast, to talk with me about who these players really are.

Tim Cato: Josh, it’s always funny when the schedule aligns as it did Monday, with new Dallas center Daniel Gafford almost instantly getting the chance to face his old Washington Wizards team.

Gafford was impressive, perhaps unsurprisingly. In his postgame press conference, he talked about calling out details of the Wizards’ every play to his new teammates. Those were his plays just one week ago! But what really made him impressive wasn’t this basketball version of insider trading. It was his motor and athleticism.

Is what Gafford did against the Wizards on Monday — 16 points, 17 rebounds, five blocks — typical of what he has done all season for them?

Josh Robbins: That? No. If Gafford had gone off in most games for 16 points, 17 boards and five blocks, I think he would still be on the Wizards’ roster!

Having said that, I can make a legit argument that Gafford was Washington’s best, and most consistent, player this season. Here’s the context that folks need to know about Gaff: The Wizards’ perimeter defense has been so inept at containing the ball for most of this season that he had to clean up a lot of other players’ messes. Contesting those shots moved him out of position in some cases and diminished his effectiveness as a defensive rebounder.

Cleaning the Glass, the advanced analytics database that excludes stats compiled in garbage time and in blowouts, pegged his defensive-rebounding rate at 17.4 percent, which ranked in the 50th percentile among all NBA big men. Basically, right in the middle. In prior seasons, his defensive rebounding was pretty far below average.

So, is he below average or average as a defensive rebounder? Can he be above average? He can get overpowered by other bigs, and he does have a tendency to ball-watch instead of boxing out.

Cato: That’s a good, important point. I saw some Mavericks fans proclaim Gafford the team’s best rebounder since Tyson Chandler, perhaps understandably with how dominant he looked in his first two games. But that’s not who he’s been, at least not in Washington.

Robbins: I’ll be fascinated to see how he progresses in that area. I focus on defensive rebounding because, with Dončić and Kyrie Irving, the Mavs won’t need Gafford to take on a major scoring load. He’ll have to contest shots and rebound.

But with Luka and Kyrie running the Dallas offense and devouring so much attention from defenses, Gafford should excel as a lob threat and someone who can convert dump-off passes. He has good hands and outstanding leaping ability.

Cato: And while he missed some touch shots around the rim on Monday, he’s reliably converted those this season, right? You don’t lead the league in field goal percentage with just dunks.

Robbins: True, but dunks are a major part of his repertoire. The NBA’s tracking data says 101 of his 217 made baskets this season have come on dunks. He has made progress with his touch around the basket, though.

There’s one other question I’m eager to see him answer in Dallas: Just how good a rim protector is he? Gafford blocks a high percentage of opponents’ shots, but protecting the rim is also about deterring those shots and forays into the paint in the first place, like Rudy Gobert does and like Victor Wembanyama will do.

I found it fascinating that Gafford’s former teammates attacked the rim with abandon during Monday’s game. Gafford’s a good shot-blocker, but he’s not an elite rim protector. At least not yet.

Cato: Right, Monday’s game changed when Dallas began deploying a switching defense with Maxi Kleber, not Gafford, at center. Gafford’s offensive rebounding will be incredibly valuable against smaller teams like Oklahoma City or Golden State. But even if other matchups prove worse for him, Dallas now has the luxury of optionality.

One more thing: Before Monday’s game  you spoke with Kyle Kuzma, who discussed how he almost joined Dallas at the deadline. I also had conversations with league sources last week who told me what Kuzma later said to you – he didn’t want to come to Dallas, which was the main reason that the deal fell through. What did you make of those comments?

Robbins: More than anything else, I’m surprised Kuzma would want to remain with the Wizards over joining the Mavericks. This has been a difficult season in Washington — the team has one of the league’s worst records — and I would’ve thought the opportunity to chase a championship with an all-league player like Luka would be enticing.

But then I remembered Kuzma enjoys being his team’s top option in Washington instead of being a role player, as he was when he was a part of LeBron James’ and Anthony Davis’ supporting cast. In Dallas, Kuzma would’ve been a third option.

Cato: Dallas pivoted to acquire P.J. Washington, who has more uncertainty attached to him — and, thus, far more fascination.

The former Charlotte Hornets forward is a wing-sized athlete with a skillset more resembling that of a big. He was projected as a shooter out of the draft and hit 46.1 percent of his corner 3s in his first two seasons, but has lost his touch (31.5 percent from those spots) in the three years since. He has the tools to be a high-level defender, and a highlight tape might make you believe he is one. But that impact hasn’t been there consistently.

Dave, I’m switching this conversation to you. How’s that as a quick attempt to explain what makes Washington a complicated player? I’m still trying to figure out the exact terminology for him as this pseudo-big, pseudo-wing athlete that may fit perfectly next to Dončić — or may not.

Dave DuFour: I think you’ve done an admirable job at describing an archetype we haven’t quite figured out. I’ve been playing with the idea of “combo big” or “combo wing” for these tweener types like Washington. Combo guards are all over the league, but Washington types who can stretch the floor, guard the perimeter, play above the rim and defend around the basket don’t seem to be as easy to classify. Denver’s Aaron Gordon is the gold standard for these types of role players now.

Cato: It does seem like every title contender needs a Gordon. Or, to name some other recent champions, a Draymond Green, or a Pascal Siakam or a Kuzma. (Who, as discussed above, was actually Dallas’ preferred target.)

That leads into a broader conversation about Dallas’ roster, and what it’s missing, but let’s hold off on that for a minute. Because, right now, Washington hasn’t yet done enough to prove he’s a “combo big” of that quality.

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What’s missing? Let’s start with his defense, which wasn’t good in Charlotte this season, but has been better in the past when the Hornets were, too. Does Washington project more as a point-of-attack defender or a help side guy, to you?

DuFour: You definitely don’t want him picking up primary playmakers up top, but he can hold up on a switch when necessary. Ideally, he’s on your backline, making rotations and helping your center clean up around the basket. With his athleticism and length, he should be a more solid rim protector than he has been the last few seasons.

Cato: Dallas hopes so, at least! Rim protection isn’t just athleticism and wingspan, which Washington definitely has enough of to be an excellent weak side deterrent. There’s a lot of instinct that goes into it, too, which is a hard thing to improve.

Washington did have a combined block percentage of 3.7 across his second and third seasons, though. This season, that’s comparable to Scottie Barnes (3.6), Jarrett Allen (3.4), and Derrick White (3.3). He held opponents under 60 percent shooting when contesting shots within six feet of the rim last season.

Maybe he’ll fit better in Dallas. Can his inconsistencies this season be explained away by the Hornets’ circumstances?

DuFour: The situation in Charlotte wouldn’t inspire me with a lot of confidence. He was a more impactful player during their last decent season in 2021-22, but hasn’t been the same since the organization fired James Borrego two summers ago.

Cato: Offensively, I see him with a much cleaner fit with one big question: his shooting. But from the outside looking in, I don’t think we can diagnose whether better looks will lead to more makes, if his mechanics can be tweaked or if this is just who he is. Right?

DuFour: I think he’s a decent-to-good shooter who will finally have some good looks. Again, comparing him to Aaron Gordon, moving to a better team with better players should make his life easier. Going from the No. 2 or 3 option to the fourth or fifth is a massive difference in degree of difficulty. A shot diet of wide open catch-and-shoot 3s should lead to better results. It’s going to be as much about his willingness to shoot as his ability to convert.

Cato: More and more, the NBA is about role players having some off-the-bounce juice than just pure catch-and-shoot percentages. But a modern offense can still only survive one non-shooter, for the most part, and Dallas has committed to playing a lot of minutes with non-shooting centers. Washington still needs make shots even while he provides value as a cutter and closeout attacker.

There’s a chance it doesn’t come together in Dallas in the same manner it didn’t in Charlotte. But Washington is 25 and under contract for two more seasons. When the trade happened, I wrote that the thing I liked most about the move is that Dallas could just trade him again if the team recognizes the fit isn’t quite right. Is that correct?

DuFour: It’s close to a perfect scenario for the Mavs. If it all hits, you’ve got a starter making bench money for the next couple of seasons. If it doesn’t go well, he’s on an incredibly team friendly contract that declines over the next two years in that sweet $14-15 million range that makes it great for trades.

Cato: There are exceptions, but most players have better seasons next to Dončić. It’s just hard to see Washington’s value declining, not when he’s the archetype that every contending team views with rose-colored glasses.

But let’s say he excels. Do we know how far away this team really is from contending? What’s still missing?

DuFour: They are unfortunately still missing Nikola Jokić.

Cato: Hah, same as 28 other teams. But they do have Dončić, a very different player and yet also, perhaps, the closest thing to him. I believe Dallas, one way or another, will find out this season what the team might still be missing. And this summer, they will have the ability — and the need — to make those final moves.

(Top photo of P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford: Glenn James / NBAE via Getty Images)