It’s looking increasingly likely that Republicans will pick up an important Senate seat in Ohio, judging by how little the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) is spending — or not spending — to help Sherrod Brown retain his seat.
Let’s look at how things seem to be breaking.
The State of Play in Ohio
A recent Napolitan News survey of Ohio voters is very favorable for both the GOP Senate candidate, Bernie Moreno, and for Donald Trump. Moreno seems to have taken the lead in the race, garnering 48 percent support compared to incumbent Brown’s 46 percent. The RealClearPolitics average still shows Brown with the lead, but their composite number is based off of older polling data.
📊 OHIO POLL: @RMG_Research
Senate
🟥 Bernie Moreno: 48%
🟦 Sherrod Brown: 46%
—
President
🟥 Donald Trump: 54%
🟦 Kamala Harris: 43%
—
#60 (2.3/3.0) | 757 LV | 9/18-20 | ±3.5%https://t.co/WaZP2qhGyr pic.twitter.com/cEAqXkuh99— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 25, 2024
The results are also very good for Trump, who’s showing a whopping, 11-point lead over Kamala Harris, which is mostly in line with the RCP average. A PAC supporting Kamala is out with an ad attacking Trump, which is likely an attempt to narrow Trump’s lead in the Buckeye State by playing up the cats and dogs story.
The Money
When it comes to winning or keeping Senate seats for the Democrats, it’s up to the Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee to spend … and spend big. Especially in races where an incumbent is running, as is the case with Sherrod Brown and Ohio. There’s just one thing: the DSCC doesn’t seem to be spending in Ohio at all. Zilch. Nada. And it’s not like they don’t have the money.
Groups backing Republican Bernie Moreno in the #OHSen race are now outspending the groups backing Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown $89.9 million to $22.5 million. https://t.co/oRr8kThn9g pic.twitter.com/pQrkce5fup
— Rob Pyers (@rpyers) September 24, 2024
If you look at the chart really closely, that’s a big old goose egg being spent by the DSCC to help Brown hold onto his seat. One place the committee is spending money, however, is in Montana, where Republican Tim Sheehy is now favored to beat the Democrat incumbent, Jon Tester.
In battleground Senate ad spending, Republican advertisers continue to hold a future reservation advantage in #OHSen and #PASen, but Democrats maintain advantages in #AZSen, #MISen, #MTSen, #NVSen, and #WISen. pic.twitter.com/8WAnwcfomA
— AdImpact Politics (@AdImpact_Pol) September 25, 2024
Bottom line: The Democrats seem to be shifting resources away from the Ohio race and into the Montana one.
The Players in Ohio
We already know that the DSCC isn’t spending squat in Ohio, but what about the GOP’s equivalent, the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee (RSCC)? They appear to be spending nominal amounts on behalf of Moreno. That means that both parties are relying on associated PACs to pick up the slack, a challenge that has been accepted by Mitch McConnell and his Senate Leadership Fund. Mitch clearly has his sights set on Republicans picking off a few seats to regain the majority, and Moreno is benefitting from his largesse.
On the Democrat side, the Senate Majority PAC (SMP) has poured nearly $20 million into the Ohio senate race. That’s only a third of what they said they’d spend to help Brown. It looks like SMP is withholding some of the Ohio money for places like Montana and Pennsylvania, where Republican Dave McCormick is giving Democrat incumbent Bob Casey a run for his money.
Next Moves
The Democrats seem to be running out of moves on the Senate chessboard. With less than six weeks to go until Election Day, they seem to be essentially giving up on Sherrod Brown, and Jon Tester may soon suffer the same fate. Where do they go next? Apparently, they’re looking to expand the playing field to Florida and Texas in the hopes of knocking off Republicans Rick Scott and Ted Cruz.
The math isn’t currently in the Democrats’ favor. They’re going to lose Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia, they seem to be giving up on Ohio, with Montana possibly close behind. Going after Scott and Cruz means they’re relying on support for Trump to be waning in those states. Democrats seem pretty much cooked this Senate election cycle, which won’t make Chuck Schumer very happy. This should make conservatives happy, though, since the GOP having the majority in the Senate is a good thing, whether or not Trump wins the presidency.
