Earlier this week, I broke down the biggest concerns and possible X-factors to watch for the National League contending teams down the stretch. Today, let’s look at those same variables for nine American League teams — the six teams currently occupying postseason positions and three others facing long odds but within striking distance of a possible playoff spot.
1. Baltimore Orioles
81-60 (1/2-game lead over Yankees in AL East)
Biggest concern: The pitching staff — both starters and relievers
Over the last 30 days, the Orioles’ pitching staff ranks 12th out of the 30 teams in ERA at 4.04. On the season, their starters are eighth in ERA (3.89) and their relievers are 17th (3.98). The season-ending injuries to starters Kyle Bradish and John Means were devastating, and the inconsistency of Craig Kimbrel and other relievers have hurt them in close games. The Orioles have the third-best offense in the majors in terms of runs scored, trailing only the Diamondbacks and Yankees. They’re one of two teams, along with the Yankees, to hit more than 200 home runs this season. They lead the majors in team slugging percentage at .433. But the pitching staff — both in the rotation and bullpen — remains a concern for September and October.
X-factor: Star players getting hot again
For the Orioles to outlast the Yankees and win the division, they’ll need their star players to get hot again. Over the last 30 days, Gunnar Henderson is hitting .238 with a .763 OPS, Adley Rutschman is hitting .238 with a .613 OPS, and Anthony Santander’s production has tailed off slightly (though he still has an .804 OPS and seven homers over this stretch). The Orioles need their star trio to get hot down the stretch and power the offense.
2. Cleveland Guardians
80-60 (four-game lead over Twins in AL Central)
Biggest concern: The starting pitching
The Guardians have the best bullpen in baseball, a strong defensive team, an MVP candidate in José Ramírez and one of the most fundamentally sound teams in the league. However, the rotation is a glaring weakness as they head down the stretch. On the season, their starting pitchers rank 24th in ERA, 24th in WHIP and 21st in batting average against.
X-factors: Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb
For the Guardians to hold off their division rivals and win the AL Central, they’ll need improvement from said rotation — and they believe these veteran starters, both midseason acquisitions, can be key difference-makers down the stretch. Boyd has made four starts for the Guardians since Aug. 13 and has pitched at least 5 1/3 innings in each of them, yielding just one run in three of the four outings. Cobb, whom they added from San Francisco at the trade deadline, has gone 2-1 with a 2.76 ERA in his three starts with Cleveland.
3. Houston Astros
75-65 (4 1/2-game lead over Mariners in AL West)
Biggest concern: Lack of offensive production from first base and the outfield
The Astros are in good shape to hold off the Mariners and win the AL West, and they’re doing it with a rebuilt rotation, a strong bullpen and contributions from superstars such as Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez. However, this team isn’t perfect as it has lacked offensive production from first base and the outfield all year, which has hurt Houston in close games. Jon Singleton, their top first baseman, has a 99 OPS+ this season. Outfielders Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick are both hitting under .230 with OPS+ below league average. (88 and 61, respectively). The Astros front office did a solid job in recently adding veteran outfielders such as Jason Heyward and Ben Gamel to the mix, but it’s still a key area of concern for the stretch run.
X-factor: Kyle Tucker
Lack of offensive production from the outfield? Enter right fielder Kyle Tucker, who is expected to be reinstated from the injured list this week. Tucker fractured his shin on June 3 and hasn’t played since. The Astros have been on fire during that stretch, going 48-31 and climbing from third to first in the division. But Tucker obviously makes them much better. He was Houston’s best position player last season, slashing .284/.369/.517 with 37 doubles, 29 home runs, 30 stolen bases and a league-leading 112 RBIs. This year, he had a .979 OPS with 19 home runs, 40 RBIs and 10 stolen bases in 10 attempts at the time of the injury. If he can return to form in the final weeks of the season, it could help position the Astros for another deep October run.
4. New York Yankees
80-60 (a half-game back of Orioles in AL East; in first wild-card spot)
Biggest concern: The closer situation and Alex Verdugo
The Yankees’ biggest concern has been the closer role and Clay Holmes’ league-leading 11 blown saves. It has prompted changes. Aaron Boone said Wednesday he’ll “get creative” to solve the closer issue, which is expected to include the manager going with the best matchup in the ninth or the team even moving a starter to the back end of the bullpen with Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt returning from the injured list. However, that’s not the only major concern for the Yankees. The lack of production from Alex Verdugo has persisted; the left fielder batted .219 in June, .223 in July and .204 in August, with only one home run in each month. An easy solution would be to promote Jasson Domínguez, who has been raking in Triple A. It’s a head-scratcher why the Yankees haven’t already recalled Domínguez. They apparently continue to believe that Verdugo will get it going at some point.
X-factor: The return of Clarke Schmidt
The X-factor for the Yankees could be the return of right-hander Clarke Schmidt, who has been on the IL since late May with a lat strain. New York is expected to reinstate Schmidt this weekend and have him start Saturday against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Schmidt was one of the Yankees’ better starting pitchers before the injury, going 5-3 with a 2.52 ERA over 11 starts.
5. Minnesota Twins
76-64 (four games back of Guardians in AL Central; in second wild-card spot)
Biggest concern: Carlos Correa
The Twins have arguably the best lineup in the AL Central, but they just haven’t been able to keep their star players healthy — namely Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton. Lewis is the only one of the trio currently on the active roster. Correa has been sidelined with plantar fasciitis in his right foot and last played on July 12. Buxton (right hip inflammation) hasn’t played since Aug. 12 and recently had a setback in his rehab. Of the three, Correa is the biggest concern because he’s the team leader and such a big-game player. In 85 career postseason games, Correa has an .860 OPS with 18 home runs and 63 RBIs.
X-factor: Carlos Correa
Obviously, Correa could be Minnesota’s X-factor when he returns, especially if he’s able to perform close to his accustomed level. The Twins could still catch the Guardians and win the AL Central, but even if they don’t end up winning the division, they’re in a comfortable position to earn a wild-card spot. (FanGraphs gives them a 95.1 percent chance of making the playoffs.) Bottom line: The Twins just need to get Correa back and in form before the playoffs.
6. Kansas City Royals
76-65 (4 1/2 games back of Guardians in AL Central; in third wild-card spot)
Biggest concern: The bullpen
The Royals have four starting pitchers — Seth Lugo, Brady Singer, Cole Ragans and Michael Wacha — who have made between 25 and 29 starts and pitched to a 3.50 ERA or better. They also have an MVP candidate in Bobby Witt Jr. and a lineup that strikes out the least of any team in the AL. The bullpen remains an area of concern though. The Kansas City front office did a good job in acquiring Lucas Erceg from the A’s at the trade deadline; the hard-throwing righty reliever converted his first five save opportunities as a Royal, but has two blown saves in his last two outings. Meanwhile, Chris Stratton, who has four saves on the season, logged a 6.94 ERA over 11 relief appearances in August. The Royals need the bullpen to pick it up down the stretch if they’re going to win the AL Central.
X-factor: MJ Melendez
The Royals suffered a significant blow when they lost first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino for six to eight weeks due to a broken right thumb, but the front office did a great job in pivoting to add veterans Tommy Pham, Yuli Gurriel and Robbie Grossman. However, the Royals’ X-factor could be left fielder MJ Melendez, who has had a down year but has the potential and talent to be a difference-maker. Over 25 games in August, he slashed .311/.363/.581 with five home runs and 12 RBIs. He’s cooled off so far in September, but if he can contribute over the rest of the month, he could help fill the void in the lineup left by Pasquantino and provide some protection for Witt and Salvador Perez.
7. Detroit Tigers
71-70 (five games out of final wild-card spot)
Biggest concern: Too many young players being forced into the lineup
The Tigers have gone 19-11 in their last 30 games and are making a late run in the wild-card race. However, during this solid stretch, they’ve force-fed too many young players into the lineup with mixed results. Since being promoted to the majors in August/late July, shortstop Trey Sweeney is 9-for-45, infielder Jace Jung is 11-for-53 and catcher Dillon Dingler is 8-for-61. In addition, rookie second baseman Colt Keith has gotten cold, hitting .174 with 10 strikeouts over 23 at-bats over his last seven games.
X-factor: Spencer Torkelson
First baseman Spencer Torkelson looks much improved since his return to the majors. Torkelson batted .201/.266/.330 with just four home runs and 18 RBIs over 54 games before being demoted to the minors in early June. But since being recalled on Aug. 17, he’s hit four homers and driven in 10 runs, and he slashed .308/.368/.577 in 14 games last month. The Tigers are a long shot to reach the postseason (FanGraphs pegs their odds at 7.7 percent), but Torkelson could be a difference-maker if they’re to complete an incredible late-season run.
8. Seattle Mariners
71-70 (4 1/2 games back of Astros in AL West; five games out of final wild-card spot)
Biggest concern: Too many strikeouts in their lineup
The Mariners lead the majors with 1,430 strikeouts and carry the worst batting average in the sport — yes, worse than the White Sox — at .218. If they just had an average offense, we’d be talking about a legitimate World Series team because their starting pitching is arguably the best in baseball one through five. (They lead the majors with a 3.38 ERA.) How the offense performs down the stretch will determine if Seattle can make a late push for the final wild-card spot.
X-factor: Julio Rodríguez
Julio Rodríguez has had a disappointing season, batting .258 with a .692 OPS and only 14 home runs. However, over his last seven games he’s slashed .333/.441/.593 with two homers and seven RBIs. If Rodríguez can stay hot, he’s capable of carrying this lineup into the playoffs, but time is running out and there’s not much offensive support around him.
9. Boston Red Sox
70-70 (5 1/2 games out of final wild-card spot)
Biggest concern: Stabilizing the pitching staff
Boston’s pitching staff has been all over the map during the last 30 days. The Red Sox have had strong performances from starters such as Brayan Bello and Tanner Houck but underwhelming performances from Kutter Crawford, Cooper Criswell and Nick Pivetta. They’ll need more consistency from the latter three down the stretch if they’re going to overcome the long odds and make the playoffs.
X-factor: Trevor Story
The X-factor for this team could be Trevor Story, who is on a rehab assignment and could be reinstated as early as this weekend. Story would play shortstop and the Red Sox would move Ceddanne Rafaela to second base; with Jarren Duran in center field and Connor Wong and Danny Jansen behind the plate, that should make the Sox the best they’ve been up the middle — defensively and offensively — all year.
(Top image: Carlos Correa: Joe Sargent / Getty Images; Kyle Tucker: Rich Graessle / Icon Sportswire / Associated Press)
