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Lucas Giolito was Boston’s big offseason move. Now he might miss the whole season. Plus: Notes on Matt Chapman, the Rays’ pitching development, and the insular subculture of big leaguers and real estate. I’m Levi Weaver here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to the Windup!

Who could replace Lucas Giolito?

The Red Sox didn’t follow through on that “full throttle” offseason, but hey, at least they signed Lucas Giolito to bolster the rotation, right?

Oof. Elbow discomfort has entered the chat.

Giolito is getting a second opinion, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported on Tuesday that Giolito “likely has a partially torn UCL and flexor strain.” If that is the case, the most likely outcome is Tommy John surgery, which would cost Giolito at least the entire 2024 season (and possibly part of 2025). It would be his second TJ surgery; his first came after his first professional game in 2012.

For the Red Sox, who traded Chris Sale to the Braves this offseason, it’s a huge blow. As Jen McCaffrey reports, the front office isn’t giving any panicked public quotes that might help Scott Boras’ case in negotiations regarding Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell. Right now, the company line is that they’re comfortable with their internal options, listed here:

At the outset of camp, Giolito, Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta and Kutter Crawford were penciled in for the first four rotation spots with Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Josh Winckowski vying for a fifth. Cooper Criswell, the only other free-agent pitcher signed this winter, has also been in that mix.

It’s not a disaster-level staff, but it’s certainly not a rotation that breeds confidence in Boston’s ability to avoid last year’s last-place finish in an extremely strong AL East.

Boston is a big-market team, and if the Red Sox are serious about shoving their way back into the playoff-contention mix, it seems logical that another addition (or two) would go a long way.

More on injured star pitchers: 

Ken’s Notebook: A year of Chapman could be bargain for Giants

From my most recent notes column:

How satisfied were the San Francisco Giants with the terms they negotiated for Matt Chapman? They will be unable to recoup the draft pick they lost for signing him. Yet, even after factoring in the value of the pick, they determined he would be worth the potential cost if he stayed only one year.

In last Thursday’s edition of The Windup, I wrote that because of the rules regarding draft-pick compensation, teams might be reluctant to give one-year opt-outs to a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer — Chapman, for example.

A player cannot receive a qualifying offer twice, so if Chapman leaves after one season, the Giants would be ineligible for a pick. The exemption from a QO should give Chapman, as well as Bellinger, added incentive to opt out. If they re-enter the market, it will be without restriction.

Chapman, who turns 31 next month, will cost the Giants $20 million for one season if he declines his player option for 2025. Last year, the slot value of the pick the Giants will sacrifice for signing him, No. 51 overall, was $1.66 million.

If the slot values, based on industry revenues, increase by the same 10 percent they did a year ago, the value of the 51st pick will be about $1.8 million. And as Mets owner Steve Cohen tweeted in 2021, “Baseball draft picks are worth up to 5x their slot value to clubs.”

The pick the Giants sacrificed then, figures to be valued at about $9 million, bringing the potential acquisition cost for one season of Chapman to $29 million. That might sound like a lot, but Chapman averaged 3.9 fWAR the past three seasons. While much of his value stems from his defense, teams generally consider a point of WAR to be worth between $8 and $10 million. So, if Chapman puts up 4 WAR this season, he will be worth between $32 and $40 million.

The Giants might argue they got a bargain.

How are the Rays so good at pitching development?

Ryan Pepiot says the Rays’ coaching staff constantly reminds him how good he is. (Nathan Ray Seebeck / USA Today)

I found a familiar face during a trip to Tampa last year. I’d covered Jake Diekman from 2016 to 2018 when he was with the Rangers, and in the intervening years, Diekman had taken turns with the Royals, A’s, Red Sox and White Sox before joining the Rays (he’s with the Mets now).

I believe by that point in a career, he would be deemed a “journeyman.”

He posted a 7.94 ERA in 11 1/3 innings in Chicago last year, prompting his release, but completely turned things around with the Rays. In 45 1/3 innings with the Rays last year, he posted a 2.18 mark.

What the heck happened?

“Every pitching coach can break down mechanics and know the same things,” he told me. “But the verbiage might be different. Some of it has to do with that … (But) everything is super positive here. The first or second outing, I gave up runs; (if) I threw 18 pitches, they were like ‘Well 15 of them were amazing. So don’t worry about the three. Still focus on throwing it over the plate, and that’s it.’”

From the lede of this Chad Jennings story, it’s evident that positivity is still at the forefront for the Rays. During the regular season, the team gathers the pitchers twice a week for a video session — not about what went wrong and needs improvement, but to show them their best pitches.

Like Diekman, pitchers like Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs and Zack Littell all found a second life under pitching coach Kyle Snyder’s philosophy: trust in your stuff, and throw the ball down the middle — particularly on the first pitch.

In Chad’s story (as in my conversation with Diekman), a common theme emerged: If you throw the first pitch in the strike zone, you’ll have a positive result 95 percent of the time, even if it means a few first-pitch ambushes. Compare that to the .380 on-base percentage when a hitter starts an at-bat 1-0 (it’s .266 if it’s 0-1), and it’s simple math: throw a strike on the first pitch.

They’ll need that philosophy to fuel a few more turnarounds this year. Tyler Glasnow was traded to the Dodgers, and three other starters (and prospect Shane Baz) are working their way back from injuries.

But replacing departed talent hasn’t been a problem for the Rays before, so who says it’s an issue now?

How baseball players find a place to live

Andy McCullough dug into an under-reported aspect of the small little universe that is baseball: the fact that a lot of real estate gets moved or leased between players.

The reasons make sense when you think about it. Not counting the minor leagues, there are only 28 big-league cities — 27 if you count Los Angeles and Anaheim as the same city (which you shouldn’t).

Finding places to live — often at the last minute due to trades, DFAs or signing after spring training has started — is a hassle, and complicated by the fact that the regular season only runs from April through the first of October. Good luck finding a seven-month lease.

So why not use the network of people who live the same lifestyle as you?

The number of players mentioned in this story is kind of mind-boggling and certainly doesn’t come close to representing all the player-to-player house swapping and renting that takes place in the league. The deals are often brokered by players’ wives while their husbands are off playing games every day.

The most serendipitous example: After signing a deal with the Phillies, Carlos Santana rented his home in the Cleveland suburbs to his former teammate Edwin Encarnación. Later that year, the Mariners traded Santana — to Cleveland, for Encarnación. So Santana just … moved back into his house.

It’s a fun read on a topic that most of us don’t think much about. Playing baseball comes with a lot of perks and a very nice paycheck. But it is a super weird and unique way to live a life.

Handshakes and High Fives

We have more analysis on Zack Wheeler’s three-year extension worth $126 million. Topics include: what it means for the Phillies, how it impacts the free-agent market and how his current contract (the extension starts in 2025) is perhaps the best pitching contract in history.

Speaking of extensions: Tim Britton’s Extension Week continues (the final installment comes tomorrow):

Yes, it’s early, but… if Jackson Holliday wins Rookie of the Year this year, he’s going to make a lot of history, says Jayson Stark.

Tyler Kepner tells us how Gabriel Moreno went from being an expendable trade chip with the Blue Jays to a “difference-maker” in Arizona.

Sam Blum had a really intriguing article this week on what it’s like when a player is designated for assignment.

The A’s unveiled the plans for their new stadium in Las Vegas. Evan Drellich has a Q&A with the architect. Yes, the references to the Sydney Opera House and an armadillo are addressed.

Keith Law scouts the 2024 draft and gives us his Top 30 amateur prospects.

Good news in Atlanta: Ronald Acuña Jr.’s knee will be just fine.

Mike Zunino and Josh Donaldson have announced they are retiring.

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 (Top photo of Lucas Giolito: Billie Weiss / Boston Red Sox / Getty Images)