When Craig Berube took the Toronto Maple Leafs job, he inherited a top power-play unit with an excellent (regular season) track record and immediately put his faith in the proof of concept that group had provided.
After the Maple Leafs scored just three power-play goals in their first nine games with Morgan Rielly and Oliver Ekman-Larsson taking turns quarterbacking Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, and John Tavares, Berube turned the page on Monday by dropping Nylander and Tavares to PP2.
That move didn’t yield immediate results, but it could put the team on track to find the power-play success that’s been elusive since midway through the 2023-24 season. It would be easy to see demoting Nylander — who led the team in power-play points last season (35) — as the biggest move, but re-thinking how Tavares can best help the Maple Leafs’ power play could be more impactful.
In recent years, the veteran centre has consistently found himself parked down low with the man advantage, whether in a netfront position, the ‘bumper’ spot, or some combination of the two. That’s always been an intuitive spot for him considering he’s got some size, he’s no stranger to a nifty deflection at the net, and he isn’t known for ripping one timers or wheeling around the zone opening up holes in the defence.
Tavares has a reputation for making things happen down low, and as recently as 2022-23 he scored 18 power-play goals — the fifth-highest single-season total in Maple Leafs history — primarily around the blue ice. And yet, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest his output at the net doesn’t match his reputation, at least at this point in his career.
Since NHL Edge began tracking high-danger shots in 2021-22, Tavares has been in the top-10 in high-danger shots taken every season, but only cracked the top-10 in high-danger goals once (2022-23). That season he was narrowly above-average from those areas, but more often that not his finishing has been below-average:
Even after scoring two goals around the net on Monday, Tavares is still slightly below-average on these looks in the small sample of 2024-25. The league standard has not fallen below 15 percent since 2021-22, and his average on 461 shots over 248 games sits at 13.7 percent.
To be fair to Tavares, he deserves plenty of credit for driving the best scoring areas on the ice and winning enough battles to get these shots off. Creating as many high-danger looks as he has requires a great deal of skill, and a little grit as well. In an overall sense, the fact his conversion rate is suboptimal isn’t that much of an issue for Toronto.
On the power play, though, it’s magnified.
When the Maple Leafs have the man advantage most of the best opportunities around the net are created by Tavares’ teammates. What really matters for netfront players on the power play is the ability to turn high-grade chances into goals.
This is where Tavares has struggled, creating a notable shortfall between expected goals and goals:
Tavares is not solely responsible for Toronto’s power-play woes, but at a time when the team is struggling to convert, moving him off PP1 makes sense. Where things get a little muddy is whether the alternatives the Maple Leafs have elevated to the unit, Matthew Knies and Max Pacioretty, will fare better.
A glass half-full interpretation would be that Pacioretty has 80 power-play goals in his NHL career while Knies has converted high-danger opportunities at a strong clip so far (19.3 percent) — and appears to be elevating his game this season. A more pessimistic view would be centred around the idea that Pacioretty is coming off a season where he scored on just 4.2 percent of his shots and Knies had never scored a power-play goal at the NHL level.
It will take time to see whether PP1 does better without Tavares, although it’s not outrageous to think the Maple Leafs could enjoy league-average efficiency on shots around the net. The veteran’s demotion also has potential to benefit PP2. Not only is his overall offensive talent a boon to the secondary group, he might be able to apply it in a different way than he did on the top unit.
Tavares may not produce at an elite level in close, but he’s been a quietly effective midrange shooter in recent seasons, scoring on 14.0 percent of his 214 attempts.
On PP1, Tavares walking in off the right half wall and firing a wrister has a significant opportunity cost. That shot’s not unjustifiable, but there are better weapons, and Matthews tends to occupy that area, anyway. On the second unit there may be a time and a place for the centre to show off his midrange shooting with Bobby McMann screening goaltenders, tipping pucks, and banging in rebounds.
The sample size here is on the small side, but these numbers aren’t too hard to believe considering the nice wristers he’s capable of — like the one that earned him his first goal of the season.
JOHN TAVARES 🚨
It’s 4-1 Leafs as he scores his first pic.twitter.com/VreyUbhZSL
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) October 11, 2024
It would be unfair to hang all of the Maple Leafs power-play issues on Tavares. He is only part of the issues the team has experienced, but he might be the only player on PP1 whose presence there can be argued on a conceptual level. Matthews, Marner, and Nylander are all the team’s best possible threats in the roles they inhabit. There’s an argument to be made over whether Rielly or OEL fits best at the point, but there isn’t a strong case for anyone else.
Tavares is the exception to that pattern, as his recent struggles to convert chances put his suitability for his role on the top power-play unit into question. Dropping Nylander from PP1 seems to be about spreading out talent even if it weakens that group, and possibly getting more out of him. Pushing Tavares down is a move that probably shouldn’t have taken a nine-game slump to make.
Monday’s game didn’t provide clear answers on how it will pan out, but it has the potential to improve both the top power-play group, and a second unit that seems likely to see more of the ice than most of the PP2’s the Maple Leafs have rolled out lately.
(Top photo: Claus Andersen / Getty Images)
