CHICAGO — Do you think the Chicago Cubs have a better player in their farm system than Jackson Holliday? You know, the No. 1 prospect in the baseball industry who has the pedigree of a No. 1 pick and the bloodlines from a father with 316 career home runs. Because the Baltimore Orioles sent him back to Triple-A Norfolk after a 2-for-34 skid.
That transition to the majors is harder than ever, even for a young hitter as gifted as Holliday, 20, who grew up around the game as the son of Matt, a seven-time All-Star. Having a top-rated farm system — which is the consensus evaluation of the Cubs organization — is not the same as having players who are ready to make an impact.
As the offense flounders, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said trying to fix the lineup internally from Triple-A Iowa is “not our focus.” Let’s also not get worked up about the last players on the bench or the backups to the backup. The Cubs need their best players — the ones with big contracts and long-term security — to perform.
This lack of production is putting a lot of strain on their pitching staff. Justin Steele competed through it in Wednesday night’s 9-2 loss to the Atlanta Braves at Wrigley Field, where Max Fried carried a perfect game through five innings. With Fried on his way to a complete game, Cubs reliever José Cuas turned a pitchers’ duel into a blowout.
The Cubs hope getting healthy will make a difference. Out of 50 games, Seiya Suzuki has only played half of the schedule. Combined, Cody Bellinger and Dansby Swanson have already missed 25 games. When Nico Hoerner was recently sidelined for six games — without going on the injured list for a hamstring issue — the team scored zero, one or two runs in four games while playing shorthanded.
Ian Happ has already been put in timeout by manager Craig Counsell. Christopher Morel’s improving under-the-hood numbers have not yet translated into stardom. Michael Busch is still only a rookie. Among their six hitters with enough plate appearances so far to qualify for a batting title, no one is producing an OPS above .790 or carrying the offense the way Bellinger and Suzuki did at times last summer. Their catching tandem has a negative WAR rating and an OPS that ranks 29th out of 30 major-league clubs.
And yet the Cubs (27-23) are still four games over .500.
Striking out the side in your @mlb debut✅
Welcome to The Show, Porter Hodge! pic.twitter.com/E0fyT4wX71
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) May 23, 2024
“These are the things that happen over a long season,” Hoyer said. “You have your ups and downs. Right now, or at least for the last few weeks, we’ve certainly been at a low point offensively. We’ve had too many games where we’ve had zero, one or two hits through six innings. We haven’t been able to string at-bats together. That is undeniable. But I just think this is what teams go through over the course of a season.”
For context, as Hoyer pointed out, the Cubs have actually scored three more runs than Atlanta’s high-powered lineup this season (in four more games) “and I don’t think anyone’s overly concerned about the Braves’ offense.”
Hoyer is right — the Cubs had what appeared to be a very robust offense in April and these things tend to even out over time. Warmer weather and the days when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley Field should help their hitters. The areas where the Cubs are strong — quality starting pitching, up-the-middle defense, game-planning, and organizational depth — show up throughout a relentless 162-game schedule.
It’s not totally unrealistic to think that a prospect such as left-handed slugger Owen Caissie could energize the lineup at some point. Maybe Counsell eventually pushes to recall center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong from Iowa for better defense. But the time to bench someone like Happ — an established player with a career OPS near .800, an All-Star selection two years ago, and a history of hot and cold streaks — simply isn’t Memorial Day weekend.
“It’s not been our greatest stretch, but there’s a lot of baseball left,” Bellinger said. “You got to keep going. You got to keep giving it your best shot.”
Beyond Fried, a 6-foot-4 lefty with Cy Young Award-caliber stuff, the Cubs have also encountered a group of starting pitchers in May that includes Yu Darvish, Dylan Cease, Chris Sale, Jared Jones (twice), Paul Skenes (twice) and Charlie Morton (twice).
“If you look at what we’ve faced pitching-wise over the last couple weeks, the average fastball velocity guys have been seeing is like 97,” Swanson said. “Which is pretty ridiculous. You got to give credit where credit’s due. Hitting is hard. You go in ebbs and flows, as an individual, and sometimes as teams. It feels like we’ve run into a lot of good arms. That can make it challenging. But we’ve been able to survive this stretch. And hopefully we can get going here soon.”
(Photo of Mike Tauchman reacting to a strikeout last week: Nuccio DiNuzzo / Getty Images)
