Kawakami: The Deebo Samuel factor in the 49ers-Brandon Aiyuk negotiations

Would the San Francisco 49ers really consider trading their leading receiver over a salary dispute right as he’s hitting his prime and at a moment when this franchise is especially ravenous to throw a Super Bowl victory parade?

Why yes, they have contemplated it — but that was two years ago, during the non-harmonious negotiations with Deebo Samuel, which may or may not have gotten pretty close to an actual trade during the first round of the 2022 draft.

There was no trade. Things calmed down. The 49ers didn’t get an offer they wanted. The two sides realized they were better off together than apart. Then Deebo agreed to a three-year, $71.55 million extension with $58.1 million in guarantees. But if you want to build a scenario that would prompt head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch to move off of a very productive receiver, the Deebo situation checked most of the boxes because of the structural issues involved — the 49ers weren’t sure about Deebo’s long-term value, and Deebo wasn’t pleased that they indicated they weren’t sure about his long-term value.

Which brings us to the current negotiations or non-negotiations (depending on who’s talking or emoji-ing) between the 49ers and Brandon Aiyuk, their current leading receiver who is due for a very large contract extension and isn’t afraid to let the 49ers know that he’s getting more than antsy.

At the owners’ meetings in Florida this week, when asked about potential trade talks with other teams about Aiyuk, John Lynch said, “Nothing’s going on there.” I’ve heard the same thing, that there have been no direct negotiations with other teams, but that, of course, doesn’t stop the 49ers from picking up the phone if anybody wants to check in. I imagine there have been some check-ins. And it only takes one great offer to change everything.

But to move this anywhere close to a trade, I think Lynch and Shanahan would have to be completely blown away by another team’s offer or absolutely convinced that Aiyuk’s demands are far too high for the 49ers’ budget. None of that has happened yet, and I’m guessing none of that is likely to occur.

OK, yes, there are similarities to Deebo in 2022, which included a trade request from Deebo and an interesting few weeks leading up to the draft. It’s already gotten a little weird between Aiyuk and the 49ers on social media, and nobody will be overly surprised if Aiyuk ramps up the pressure by issuing his own version of a trade request. There’s all the usual speculation bubbling up. The 49ers can’t pay everybody top dollar and recently released locker-room leader Arik Armstead after he refused to take a drastic pay cut.

But there’s one significant difference between 2022 with Deebo and now with Aiyuk that could be spelled out in the financial windfall Aiyuk eventually lands: The 49ers have very little doubt that Aiyuk will be extremely productive for many more seasons, in the same way they were sure about Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Trent Williams and George Kittle before giving them large new extensions over the last few years. The same way that Jed York is already bracing for the huge new deal that Brock Purdy will be due after next season.

To repeat: The 49ers were not so sure about Deebo’s longevity at the top of the WR market two years ago, which is the main reason Deebo only got three years, not the five years (and additional guaranteed money) that Davante Adams got or the four years that Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown got in the same cycle as Deebo’s negotiations.

And, while Deebo remains a vital part of Shanahan’s offense, maybe the 49ers’ concerns were not all too wrong. Deebo’s last two seasons haven’t come close to his epic receiving and running totals in 2021 — right before his new deal — when he had 1,770 yards from scrimmage. Deebo had 864 combined rushing and receiving yards in 2022 and 1,117 in 2023.

Like Deebo Samuel two years ago, Brandon Aiyuk is after a big-time extension following a career year for the 49ers. (Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)

Meanwhile, Aiyuk has only missed one game total from 2021 through 2023, and his season receiving yardage total has been a straight arrow up, from 748 as a rookie to 826 to 1,015 to last season’s 1,342. He clearly has great chemistry with Purdy. And though Aiyuk was 36th in total targets (105) last season, he was seventh in yards and third in receptions that went for 20 yards or more (with 28), behind only Hill and CeeDee Lamb, who both had 29 of those big gainers.

If the 49ers trade Aiyuk, who’d be his replacement in their offense? Maybe it’d be cut-and-paste if they could land something near the No. 8 to 10 range in this year’s draft and get Washington’s Rome Odunze or LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. But if you’re a team with a WR need in the top 10, why wouldn’t you just take Odunze or Thomas and have them on rookie deals, instead of giving up the pick and paying Aiyuk somewhere near $25 million a year?

And finally, I think the 49ers can afford and actually need to pay Aiyuk long-term top-5 or 6 WR money (around $24 million a year for four years) even with Deebo making an average of $23.8 million, because they might not have Deebo after next season, anyway, when it’d be less of a drastic cap hit to trade or release him.

The last thing the 49ers should do is leave Purdy without a veteran WR1 going into Purdy’s much more expensive years. It probably won’t be Deebo. It likely won’t be somebody in the 2024 draft class. It should be Aiyuk for now and into the late-2020s. Which is sort of how the 49ers set it up two years ago, anyway.

GO DEEPER

49ers have no plans to trade Brandon Aiyuk, GM says

(Photo of Brandon Aiyuk during the 49ers’ NFC divisional round game against Green Bay in January: Lachlan Cunningham / Getty Images)