LAFC is starting their summer business early, and they’re doing so in a big way.
On Tuesday, The Athletic reported that LAFC is finalizing a deal to sign France’s all-time leading scorer Olivier Giroud. The accomplished forward is leaving AC Milan as a free agent and will join the MLS club after Euro 2024 this summer.
In the twilight of his career at 37 years old, Giroud has aged beautifully. He’s a key player for Milan, with 12 goals and eight assists in 1,843 league minutes this year. He also scored for France in a 3-2 win over Chile just this week, and should be vital to Les Bleus as they hope to win a third European Championship.
How much will his arrival change how the two-time reigning Western Conference champions play? And will his signing be enough to make LAFC a favorite to win MLS Cup for a second time in three seasons?
How Giroud changes LAFC
It feels simplistic to tie a team’s ultimate fate to a single position on the field, but one of the main differences between LAFC’s title-winning 2022 and its near-miss in 2023 came at striker.
LAFC became increasingly easy to contain as they committed fully to operating in transition: hamper the ability for them to spray the ball toward Denis Bouanga in space, and they didn’t have a viable second option.
To say Giroud helps remedy that predictability is an understatement. If one was to build the archetypal center forward, it would be him. As willing to tower over a defender for a header as to lay off a selfless pass to an onrushing teammate. Capable of ugly finishes and highlight-reel fodder in equal measure, and still a threat to score even if he doesn’t start — and all while being one of the sport’s most handsome.
Giroud has remained essential to AC Milan this season after turning 37 in September, with only three field players having eclipsed his 1,843 minutes in Serie A as of Tuesday. He doesn’t seem like the focal point of an attack that has Rafael Leão to his left and Christian Pulisic to his right, but Giroud leads Milan in goals (12) and assists (8). He’s been remarkably consistent throughout his three-year Italian sojourn: an average xG per shot of 0.14 in each season, with a typical shot distance between 11.9 and 12.9 yards.
Tactically, Giroud will give LAFC’s attack its best central presence since Cristian Arango departed following the 2022 season. He isn’t the type of forward who runs into wingers’ terrain, and his chance creation (1.85 per 90 this year) could help Bouanga remain dangerous in a less transitional game state. He’s the type of player that every MLS team would love to sign, yet few can pull off.
In some ways, this feels like the strategic inverse of when local rival LA Galaxy signed another member of Milan’s 2021-22 title team, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, in 2018. Back then, the Galaxy hitched its fate to the Swede as the centerpiece of an effort to turn around a floundering franchise, quickly cobbling together a roster around him. Here, Giroud enters as the potential final piece for a perennial contender, as Gareth Bale and Giorgio Chiellini were in the summer of 2022.
Projected XI
Though Steve Cherundolo has seemed allergic to playing a natural center forward at center forward — taking a while to warm to Arango, spending 2023 with winger Carlos Vela playing as a false nine and now midfielder Mateusz Bogusz starting up top to start 2024 — there won’t be a choice with Giroud.
The good news? Giroud’s skill set naturally fulfills a lot of the link-up play Cherundolo likes having with a false nine while providing Arango’s elite finishing ability. Plus, he can’t really cover less ground than Vela.
Giroud and Bouanga’s pairing makes a ton of sense and it’s easy to theorize how well they’ll complement each other. It probably leaves Bogusz on the bench for their strongest XI, unless Cherundolo prefers him to Timothy Tillman in the midfield, which is doubtful.
LAFC still has another DP spot to play with. Vela is still a free agent. Let’s see if anything else changes before the end of the summer transfer window.
Does this make LAFC favorites?
2024 is already shaping up to be a second consecutive lean year for the Western Conference. Last year’s top finisher, St. Louis City SC, is unbeaten through five games but has just one win to date. The Seattle Sounders have been a shell of their usual self. The conference’s top two sides at this point, Minnesota United and the LA Galaxy, missed the playoffs last year and could be candidates to regress closer to a mid-table standing.
All of this is to say that the West is very, very up for grabs (on paper) as we head into April. LAFC is 2-1-2 (7 points) thus far, putting them sixth in the West but level with third-place Vancouver on points. Eclipsing their total of 52 points last season should be feasible, and surpassing St. Louis’ 56-point haul in 2023 isn’t unrealistic given the talent on hand.
That said, the lateness of Giroud’s arrival does put a lot of pressure to rack up results onto players who know their roles will decrease once he moves Stateside. Mateusz Bogusz has started all five games and scored in the opener against Seattle, but will operate knowing he’s most likely to drop to the bench with Bouanga and Giroud certain to start and Cristian Olivera preferred on the right wing. That looming shadow could cause some players to slip up, but in such a forgiving conference, simply keeping pace with the front-running pack should be enough for Giroud to have an outsized impact down the stretch.
Of course, signings like Giroud, Bale or Hugo Lloris aren’t made with a 34-game season in mind. His big-game prowess will be counted upon to keep LAFC from being as one-note as they were in the 2023 postseason, and they’ll be a trendy favorite to not just win the West, but be the biggest obstacle that Inter Miami will have to face if they advance to MLS Cup out of the East.
When will he arrive?
The earliest Giroud can be registered for LAFC is July 18, when the secondary transfer window opens. The earliest he could debut is July 20, when LAFC travels to the Seattle Sounders.
That match in Seattle is LAFC’s last before the Leagues Cup break. They kick off their group-stage play in that tournament on July 26 against Atlas, potentially Giroud’s home debut.
At most, Giroud will be available for 10 MLS regular season matches, the entire Leagues Cup and playoffs. The plan for when, exactly, he’ll arrive probably won’t be finalized for some time, though.
Giroud will be with France at this summer’s European Championship. That tournament runs from June 14 to July 14. France is among the favorites, so he could realistically be with the team through the final on July 14.
Regardless of when France wraps up their run at Euro 2024, Giroud could be in line for a little break after it. His season started last August with AC Milan and the 2024 MLS season doesn’t end until early December. Would it make sense for a 37-year-old Giroud to run through 18 straight months? We’ll see. Lionel Messi had a little break before joining Inter Miami last summer, which is normal for European stars coming to MLS, depending when they wrapped up their season. Giroud’s season may not end until less than a week before he’s eligible to debut.
(Top photo by Christian Liewig – Corbis/Getty Images)
