12 teams, 12 champions: History shows us your team’s path to winning the World Series

If you think baseball’s regular season can be unpredictable — what with one team rebounding from a 106-loss season to make the playoffs and another reaching October even though we’re still pretty sure it was mathematically eliminated in August — you’re going to love baseball’s postseason.

The expanded playoffs have unsurprisingly increased the twists and turns each October. A pair of wild-card teams met for the World Series last season. The No. 6 seed in the National League has won the last two pennants. (Congrats to the Mets!) No NL team with a bye has won a Division Series yet.

And that uncertainty should be amplified even more this year, where for the first time since 2014 no team reached the 100-win threshold. The Dodgers finished with the best record in baseball but don’t really have a starting rotation. The top-seeded Yankees are rebuilding their bullpen on the fly. Anything can happen.

To show that, we looked through history for teams that entered the postseason with similar statistics to this year’s 12 playoff entrants. We’ve looked at every World Series winner since divisions were instituted in 1969 and gauged how well they did compared to the league average that season in runs scored, runs allowed, home runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, ERA, strikeout rate and walk rate. We also looked at their record in the month of September, to see whether momentum can play a role.

There’s a historical comp for all 12 playoff teams — a team that looked like it did at the start of October and ended the month holding the World Series trophy. Because the biggest surprise would be the lack of one.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Historical Comp: 1993 Toronto Blue Jays

You can start with the firepower in the order. In John Olerud, Paul Molitor and Roberto Alomar, Toronto had the first-, second- and third-place finishers in the American League batting race, not to mention another Hall of Famer in Rickey Henderson. The Dodgers might best that trio, with Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman — all MVP winners.

That excellent offense made up for an average pitching staff for the Jays. Los Angeles will need to follow a similar blueprint, and it’s helped by hitting more home runs than Toronto did that season.

Historical comp: 1999 New York Yankees

The thing about the Phillies is that they do pretty much everything well. They’re at least four percent better than the league average in every statistical category we looked at. That’s really similar to the Yankees’ third championship team in a four year span. Like the ’99 Yankees, the Phillies have grown accustomed to deep October runs, though they haven’t yet finished off the month the way the Yankees already had in the late ’90s.

Of the Yankees’ four titles in five years, the ’99 team made it look the easiest in October, dropping just one of 12 games en route to the World Series.

Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera celebrate a sweep of the Braves. (Ronald C. Modra / Sports Illustrated via Getty Images)

Historical comp: 1996 New York Yankees

Milwaukee is another balanced team that leans a bit more on run prevention than run scoring. The ’96 Yankees resemble these Brewers while being a little bit worse at everything: They won one fewer game, homered a little less often compared to the league average and walked a few more hitters.

For both these Brewers and those Yankees, the rotation was headed by a young ace (Freddy Peralta and Andy Pettitte), and the bullpen was a particular strength — although Milwaukee doesn’t quite have a multi-inning Mariano Rivera as a set-up man like New York did.

The 1996 Yankees win the World Series over the Braves. (Ronald C. Modra / Getty Images)

Historical comp: 2019 Washington Nationals

Few teams in the sample are as evenly rounded as the Padres. Like the Phillies, they have no real weakness: They were at least four percent better than the league in every statistical category. But they also lack an obvious strength: They’re no more than seven percent better than the league in any of the statistical categories. They are a team that is good but not great at everything.

The 2019 Nats, who also entered the postseason as the fourth seed in the National League, looked awfully similar. Washington had a stronger offense than San Diego while the Padres’ pitching peripherals are better. Both teams turned it around after sluggish starts: The Nationals famously came back from a 19-31 record to win their first-ever World Series. The Padres didn’t get over .500 for good until late July; since then, their 43-19 record is the best in the sport.

The Nationals capture the 2019 World Series against the Astros. (Jonathan Newton / The Washington Post via Getty Images)

Historical comp: 1995 Atlanta Braves

Believe it or not — and the 2014 Giants don’t — but the 1995 Braves actually own the worst offense to win a World Series in the divisional era. (We’re judging that just by runs scored compared to the league average.) But that pitching staff? Yeah, that’s how you clinch a World Series over a juggernaut offense with a 1-0 victory.

This year’s Braves team isn’t running out a Hall of Famer each night, but it’s been nearly as good overall as the ’95 squad (a 120 ERA+ this season versus 123 in 1995). This team isn’t as good striking out hitters, but it is more adept at hitting the long ball, which sure came in handy back then.

The Braves celebrate beating Cleveland in the 1995 World Series. (Chris Wilkins / AFP via Getty Images)

New York Mets

Historical comp: 2006 St. Louis Cardinals

Sure, a team every Mets fan wants to remember! If New York is going to make an unexpected run through the National League bracket, it will require the kind of surprise pitching performances that propelled St. Louis to a championship in 2006. Jeff Suppan was the NLCS MVP (over New York), and Jeff Weaver and Anthony Reyes were stars that autumn.

The Mets’ pitching staff has been solid but unspectacular, and they’ve been especially susceptible to free passes. But it’s not too hard to imagine Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and David Peterson stepping up and filling the roles of those St. Louis starters from ’06.

Adam Wainwright and the 2006 Cardinals celebrate winning the World Series. (Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images)

New York Yankees

Historical comp: 1983 Baltimore Orioles

Outside of their strikeout-to-walk ratios being out of whack, this might be the closest comparison on the board. Both teams finished with run differentials of +147. The Yankees scored 15 percent more than the league average, the ’83 Orioles 14 percent more. New York’s ERA+? 110. Baltimore’s? 109.

Both teams hit homers at clips at least 30 percent better than the league average. Something tells me the Yankees may lean on that more this October than the O’s did back in ’83, though. Baltimore hit nine homers in nine postseason games.

The 1983 Orioles celebrate their World Series title. ( George Tiedemann / Sports Illustrated via Getty Images)

Historical comp: 1990 Cincinnati Reds

There’s no “Nasty Boys” nickname for them yet, but the Guardians own as dominant a late-game relief corps as the league has seen in a while. Emmanuel Clase put the finishing touches on one of the best closer seasons in history, and Case Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin and Eli Morgan all also have ERAs under two.

The Reds rode Randy Myers, Norm Charlton and Rob Dibble to a surprising sweep of the powerhouse Oakland Athletics in the World Series. Cincinnati’s bullpen that postseason pitched 31 1/3 innings and allowed one — ONE! — earned run. That made up for a thoroughly average offense.

The Reds needed just four games to sweep the 1990 World Series. (Getty Images)

Historical comp: 1980 Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies didn’t enter the 1980 postseason with the playoff bona fides of the current Astros, but it wasn’t for a lack of experience. Philly had been bounced in the NLCS three times in the previous four years. The ’80 team was solid all around, outside of a penchant for the free pass. The same goes for this version of the Astros, whose offense isn’t quite as dominant as it has been in recent years.

Tug McGraw celebrates the Phillies’ winning the 1980 World Series. in Game 6 and series vs Kansas City Royals. (Walter Iooss Jr. / Sports Illustrated via Getty Images)

Baltimore Orioles

Historical comp: 1992 Toronto Blue Jays

Baltimore’s strength is an offense built around the home run that helps mitigate a mediocre pitching staff. The Orioles’ ERA+ of 96 would tie the 2012 Giants for the worst for a World Series winner in the divisional era. But their ability to hit the ball out of the park is a game-changer, and that tends to be precisely that in October. The ’92 Blue Jays hit 40 percent more homers than the league average; Baltimore is just under 30 percent.

Both these O’s and those Jays could lean on an ace in the pitching staff. Baltimore has Corbin Burnes and Toronto had breakout star Juan Guzmán.

The 1992 Blue Jays celebrate in Atlanta. (Robert Sullivan / AFP / Getty Images)

Historical comp: 2003 Florida Marlins

In fairness, the ’03 Marlins commenced their out-of-nowhere playoff spring quite a bit earlier than this year’s Tigers. That said, both finished with a flourish: Florida went 18-8 in September, Detroit 17-8.

They’re pretty similar beyond that. The Marlins scored four percent less than the league average, the Tigers two percent. Both teams allowed 10 percent fewer runs than the average, and each hit far fewer homers than the average team. And in Tarik Skubal, Detroit has a pitcher capable of being the lights-out breakout ace that Josh Beckett was in 2003.

The 2003 Marlins won the World Series in the Bronx. (Doug Pensinger / Getty Images)

Historical comp: 1997 Florida Marlins

Let’s close with two styles of fish. Whereas the ’03 Marlins had surged, the ’97 squad had floundered in the final month of the season, going 12-15. That’s similar to the 11-14 month the Royals just completed, though both teams had done enough earlier in the season to remain surprise playoff participants.

The similarities don’t end there. Florida relied more on its pitching staff than an offense that didn’t hit many home runs. The Royals’ main strength is their starting rotation.

The 1997 Florida Marlins hold up their World Series trophy. (Brian Bahr / Getty Images)

*The stats for the Mets and Braves are through Sunday’s action.

(Top photo of the Commissioner’s Trophy: Daniel Shirey / MLB Photos via Getty Images)