There will forever be a tug of war between the on-field performance of an NFL quarterback and his perceived value in the football trading card market. Sometimes it adds up, like the prolific market for Patrick Mahomes. Sometimes the calculator seems broken.
Jalen Hurts stood as the favorite to win the NFL MVP on multiple occasions by oddsmakers in each of the last two seasons. He’s also scored four touchdowns in one Super Bowl.
Justin Herbert lurked around the top five at times within the NFL MVP odds early on in a couple of seasons before him and his team faded. He’s played in one playoff game scoring one TD.
Jordan Love became the starter after three years behind Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay and struggled mightily during the first half of his first year as QB1 last season. Then he seemingly flipped a switch and nearly pushed the Packers to the NFC Championship game.
Which player you might value highest and which player the hobby values the highest are different stories. But which one of these quarterbacks deserves a price bump one way or the other?
Let’s take a look at starting quarterbacks from the 2020-23 NFL Draft classes, excluding this year’s class given the new season’s NFL trading cards haven’t hit the market yet.
I’m listing the quarterbacks according to the rankings from The Athletic’s Mike Sando in his annual “NFL Quarterback Tiers.” I’m using each quarterback’s Panini Prizm Silver PSA 10 rookie card as a gauge for his card value in the market, as they tend to strike a viable balance of relative scarcity and popularity among collectors. Prices are from recent sales via Card Ladder as of Sept. 3.
2020 Panini Prizm Silver PSA 10 recent sales: $1,925, $1,680, $1,925, $2,100 (PSA 10 population: 272)
He’s still the golden boy when it comes to the quarterbacks inside this mini-era. Maybe it stems from Burrow’s insane college career. Maybe it’s because he’s the only active quarterback to lead a team to eliminate Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs from the playoffs. Or maybe it’s because there’s a tangible level of greatness when he’s healthy and able.
Burrow overcame his preseason calf injury in 2023 to play his best football, ironically right before his right wrist injury ended his season after 10 games. Plenty of eyes will be watching Burrow try to reclaim his form from the 2021 and 2022 seasons. I’m so confident this will happen that I’m one of the few who picked Burrow as the 2024 NFL MVP in our staff’s preseason predictions.
2020 Panini Prizm Silver PSA 10 recent sales: $1,025, $1,076, $1,175, $1,065 (PSA 10 population: 194)
The gap between Herbert’s card value and a few other quarterbacks outside of Burrow taken in the 2020 NFL Draft feels off to me. His value remains high even through the lack of overall team success. Frankly, I’m waiting for the bottom to fall out. Is he physically gifted? Absolutely. Yet how long can that carry him if his team can’t even regularly make the postseason, much less win there?
The evaluators participating in the QB Tiers certainly still believe in Los Angeles Chargers passer. Last season, Herbert finished 11th in EPA (expected points added) per dropback at 0.07 and 13th in passer rating at 93.2. Those numbers almost mirror his 2022 output. What will happen without Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on the roster, though? Like many, I’m highly leery of Herbert and the Chargers in 2024.
2023 Panini Prizm Silver PSA 10 recent sales: $920, $1,275, $1,360, $879, $899.99, $945, $800 (PSA 10 population: 1,770)
You won’t find a hotter chase in the NFL than the one for cards of the Houston Texans quarterback, especially since Stroud’s first rookie patch auto (rookie cards autographed by the player that also include a piece of their jersey) hit Topps Composite wax packs recently (even though it’s an unlicensed product). The prices seem a little all over the place as of late. Still, there seems to be no slowing Stroud down on the field, meaning the values will likely increase even with 1,770 PSA Gem Mint 10s in existence, a much higher supply than for players with rookie cards in sets that smaller print runs prior to the pandemic card boom.
Stroud finished with the third best passer rating for a rookie quarterback since 2001 with a 100.8 rating. Only Dak Prescott and Robert Griffin III topped Stroud. He also finished with the seventh best EPA per dropback rate at 0.11. He finished sixth among all QBs last year in that category. Adding established players like Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon should only improve Stroud’s chances of success in 2024.
2020 Panini Prizm Silver PSA 10 recent sales: $612.75, $627, $630, $699.99 (PSA 10 population: 313)
The 2020 second-round pick nearly won the 2022 NFL MVP award and his Philadelphia Eagles nearly won the Super Bowl in the same season. Heading into Week 12 last season, Hurts and the Eagles had just toppled Patrick Mahomes and Chiefs leading the Philadelphia quarterback to take the lead in the 2023 NFL MVP race. And yet his card values pale in comparison to some of his contemporaries with similar achievements, and one particularly within Hurts’ draft class possessing far less accolades (Herbert, cough cough). This card sold for nearly $1,100 one year ago.
The Eagles passer walked away from last season with similar EPA (expected points added) per dropback, via TruMedia, with a 0.07 rate following a 0.09 EPA rate in 2022. But his passer rating dropped significantly from two years ago to last season: 2022 — 101.5, 2023 — 89.1. That fall came primarily because of his jump in interceptions from six in 2022 to 15 last season (including five in the final four regular season games). I can’t envision Hurts continuing that trend this season, and expect results closer to his breakout 2022 campaign.
2022 Panini Prizm Silver PSA 10 recent sales: $959, $950, $810, $930 (PSA 10 population: 546)
The San Francisco 49ers quarterback also held the odds lead in the 2023 NFL MVP race, this one in mid-December. And like Hurts, played well enough in a Super Bowl against Mahomes for his team to win… but it didn’t. Unlike Hurts, though, Purdy’s rookie card has bounced back close to its value around Super Bowl LVIII. Is it recency bias?
Meanwhile, the experts aren’t as high on Purdy as the on-field rates might indicate. Purdy ranked first in EPA per dropback (0.26) and passer rating (113.0). This coming off a similar offensive explosion when he became the starter by injury default late in the 2021 campaign. Purdy seems to have all the pieces in place to maintain his MVP-type play this year. You could’ve said the same thing about Hurts heading into the 2023 season, too…
2020 Panini Prizm Silver PSA 10 recent sales: $1,025, $1,185.94, $1,025, $1,100 (PSA 10 population: 168)
Oh my how patience has paid off for those loyal Love collectors. Goes to show how far potential might take a card, even after a quarterback had been in the league for four seasons, rather than on-field production. A year ago, this card sold for $425. In mid-November, it sold for $170.50.
I’ve written a ton about Love’s seeming light-switch flip last season, but here’s a snapshot of why Packers fans and Love collectors should rightfully expect a launch in Love’s value on both fronts:
- Weeks 1-9: EPA per dropback: -0.02 (15th), passer rating: 81.9 (25th), completion percentage: 59.6 (32nd)
- Weeks 10-18: EPA per dropback: 0.24 (second), passer rating: 107.6 (fourth), completion percentage: 68.0 (sixth)
2020 Panini Prizm Silver PSA 10 recent sales: $450, $560, $451, $490 (PSA 10 population: 200)
You’d have to imagine Tagovailoa’s card value is teetering at best heading into his fifth season. This card went for $355 one year ago up to $700 one week later and up to $950 by Oct. 1. This was about the time Tagovailoa led the NFL in EPA per dropback and tied with Mahomes as the favorite to win the MVP. As Tagovailoa’s play calmed, though, the card’s value naturally took a tumble.
Tagovailoa is coming off easily his best two seasons in EPA per dropback at 0.18 and 0.15, as well as passer rating at 105.5 and 101.1, respectively. But Tagovailoa’s monster statistics occurred exclusively against inferior opponents. Case in point, Tagovailoa’s EPA rate and passer rating in the final three games (at Baltimore, vs. Buffalo, at Kansas City) floundered at -0.11 and 66.5. He is who he is until proven otherwise.
2021 Panini Prizm Silver PSA 10 recent sales: $1,009, $1,050, $1,025, $999 (PSA 10 population: 120)
The faith in the 2021 No. 1 pick hit fever pitch with sales of this card hovering between $2,600 to $3,000, as well as a $4,000 outlier between March and August 2023. All of this followed a 2022 campaign where Lawrence seemed like the can’t-miss prospect many anticipated. Injuries or not, though, Lawrence endured significant dips in EPA per dropback, passer rating and total QB EPA from 2022 to 2023:
- EPA per dropback: 2022: 0.12 (sixth); 2023: -0.03 (22nd)
- Passer rating: 2022: 95.2 (10th); 2023: 88.5 (21st)
- Total QB EPA: 2022: 63.1 (seventh); 2023: -31.1 (25th)
The Jacksonville Jaguars backed up the Brinks truck to Lawrence’s house this offseason with a mega contract extension. A return to his 2022 form would push collectors to open their wallets again for Lawrence, too. Given his seesaw career, it’s no guarantee it will happen despite that $200 million in guaranteed money.
2023 Panini Prizm Silver PSA 10 recent sales: $599.99, $499.99, $415, $400, $351.75, $605, $594 (PSA 10 population: 1,004)
Maybe it’s too simplistic to say the price fluctuation of this card in the span of one or two days indicates the fluctuation among football fans as to how well the Indianapolis Colts quarterback will play in Year 2. It’s hard to blame anyone since Richardson only took 98 dropbacks in Year 1 after numerous injuries derailed his rookie season. It’s really an unknown as to how Richardson will perform in the short term, much less the next couple of years.
Now he did produce a 0.20 EPA per dropback rate and 93.8 passer rating in his last three starts before the shoulder injury. And he’s playing behind one of the best pass blocking offensive lines in the NFL. Success could be immediate so I’d imagine any sign of positive play from Richardson would sharply increase his card value.
2023 Panini Prizm Silver PSA 10 recent sales: $300, $300, $225.50, $198.50, $295, $301, $215, $210 (PSA 10 population: 1,026)
Maybe the Tennessee Titans quarterback could follow the Hurts blueprint as a second-round pick making starts in Year 1. Hurts used his four starts as a launching point to improve in Year 2 and become a top-tier quarterback by Year 3. I’m not saying that will happen, but there’s at least recent precedent.
As for Levis’ play last year, I think “mixed, at best” properly describes it. He chalked up two games with a 0.13 EPA per dropback rate, along with passer ratings of 130.5 and 143.8 (this one in a 34-14 loss to Jacksonville, oddly). Take away those two games and Levis yielded a -0.06 EPA rate and 72.1 passer rating. That’s very no bueno. How much can the addition of Calvin Ridley make a difference? I’m skeptical.
2023 Panini Prizm Silver PSA 10 recent sales: $238.50, $205, $240, $225, $200, $221.85 (PSA 10 population: 1,299)
I completely understand the “Bryce Young is a buy” chatter from every card breaker on the planet heading into Week 1. He’s still the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft. The Carolina Panthers threw him into an awful situation last year. The arrow has to be pointing up given how deep in the basement Young’s rookie results placed him, not only among all quarterbacks last season but even among rookie starting quarterbacks in particular.
Young’s -0.21 EPA per dropback ranked 56th out of 61 qualified rookie quarterbacks since 2001. The few who were worse: Blaine Gabbert, Kyle Orton, Jimmy Clausen, Josh Rosen, Chad Hutchinson. His 74.3 passer rating at least ranked 36th, which still isn’t good at all. That said, the Panthers made a clear investment to help Young by adding guard Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis. We should get a clearer view of his individual value this season.
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(Top photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; all card images: eBay)
