Yankees vs. Royals 2024 ALDS preview: Predictions, pitching matchups and more

The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals will meet in the American League Division Series after KC traveled to Baltimore and dispatched of the Orioles in the wild-card round. The best-of-five series begins Saturday in New York, with the winner advancing to face either the Cleveland Guardians or Detroit Tigers in the ALCS.

Game times

Game 1: Royals at Yankees, Saturday, Oct. 5, 6:38 p.m. ET, TBS/Max

Game 2: Royals at Yankees, Monday, Oct. 7, 7:38 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV/Max

Game 3: Yankees at Royals, Wednesday, Oct. 9, Time TBD, TBS/truTV/Max

Game 4: Yankees at Royals, Thursday, Oct. 10, Time TBD, TBS/truTV/Max (if necessary)

Game 5: Royals at Yankees, Saturday, Oct. 12, Time TBD, TBS/Max (if necessary)

Pitching matchups

This is where the time off should help, at least theoretically. Because if you lined up the Yankees’ rotation against the Royals’ rotation one by one, it might be fair to call them well-matched. But the schedule — among other things — hides that this matchup may favor the Yankees despite season-long ERA numbers.

For one, ERA is not predictive. It’s among the worst stats to use if you want to look forward to the next game rather than describe what has happened, especially when you’re dealing with parks — Yankee Stadium and Kauffman Stadium — that are so different in how friendly they are to home runs. Better is strikeout minus walk rate. There, the Yankees’ and Royals’ rotations are separated by decimal points.

Then there’s the fact that the back end of these rotations won’t matter. The Yankees got nearly 200 innings of a 4.68 ERA from starters who might not make the roster for this series. The Royals’ full-year rotation numbers also include some guys who may not pitch in the ALDS, they pitched fewer innings (168) and their ERA was better (4.27), which skews full-staff comparisons.

Lastly, the Yankees get to set their rotation how they want. Gerrit Cole in Game 1. Carlos Rodón in Game 2. The Royals will probably want to avoid using the resurgent Cole Ragans — who is already 50-plus innings past his career high and left his last start with cramps — on short rest. Seth Lugo pitched in Game 2 of the wild-card win over the Baltimore Orioles and is also 50-plus innings past his past max. Therefore, the Royals will probably start this series with some combo of Brady Singer and Michael Wacha, who haven’t pitched this postseason, but the former has never pitched this many innings in a season and the latter only once before, nine years ago.

There’s a similar thing happening in the bullpen, where the narrative might be that the Yankees’ bullpen is imploding and terrible and the Royals’ is akin to their ’pens from  their championship runs. That’s just not supported by underlying stats, where the Yankees have been far superior, or by taking the projections of the top four guys in each ’pen, where the Yankees have a 3.20 park-neutral projected ERA (second-best among postseason teams) and the Royals have a 4.1 mark (worst in the playoffs). Lucas Erceg is a great story, but the Royals will need more than just him.

People might tell you the Royals have the edge in pitching in this series. They don’t read The Athletic. — Eno Sarris

Why the Yankees will win

The Yankees will have arguably the two best players on the field in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, this generation’s Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. (That’s no disrespect to Bobby Witt Jr., who will finish as the runner-up to Judge in the AL MVP race and can take over any game with his athleticism.) Judge and Soto — hitting back to back — will be a nightmare for the Royals, and they’ll be bolstered by threatening bats: Gleyber Torres, who has been excellent since taking over the leadoff spot (.824 OPS in 40 games); Austin Wells, a Rookie of the Year candidate; and Giancarlo Stanton, who loves the postseason (11 home runs in 27 playoff games).

That’s without mentioning that they’ll start last year’s AL Cy Young Award winner, Gerrit Cole, in Game 1. Cole had a bumpy regular season but finished with a 2.25 ERA over his final 10 starts. Rodón, their Game 2 starter, has allowed just two runs in two starts (13 innings) versus Kansas City this season. And their Game 3 starting pitcher options — Luis Gil (15-7, 3.50 ERA) and Clarke Schmidt (5-5, 2.85 ERA) — are dangerous, too. Plus, the Yankees’ bullpen has been much better since they turned Luke Weaver into the de facto closer.

Will they miss Anthony Rizzo’s steady glove at first base? Sure. Are they settled in left field between Jasson Domínguez and Alex Verdugo? Nope. But the Yankees are just about as healthy as they’ve been all year, they won the season series versus the Royals 5-2, and they’ll have the Bronx, and home-field advantage, on their side. Don’t underestimate the power of the Yankee Stadium crowd to put pressure on their foes. — Brendan Kuty

Why the Royals will win

Of all clubs, the Royals just know how to do this postseason thing.

Since 1985, the Royals are 9-1 in their past 10 postseason series and 32-15 in playoff games overall. That includes World Series championships in 1985 and 2015, but it doesn’t include the last time they faced the Yankees in October: the 1980 ALCS. The Royals swept that five-game series in three games.

Of course, the Royals’ and Yankees’ ancient playoff history from the late 1970s and early 80s will have no bearing on this series. But Kansas City can win for two reasons: The random nature of a five-game series and the fact it can send Ragans and Lugo to the mound in three of the possible five games.

Ragans, who tossed six scoreless innings against the Orioles on Tuesday, would be in line to start Game 2 against Rodón at Yankee Stadium, which would then slate him to be available for a possible Game 5 back in New York.

The Royals’ offense finished 13th in the majors in runs scored, but Witt, the AL batting champion, can change a game with his bat and his speed.

Are the Yankees the better team on paper? Yes. But with this rotation and Witt in a five-game series? Baseball can definitely happen. — Rustin Dodd 

Check back later for series predictions from The Athletic’s MLB staff.

GO DEEPER

Fear the Royals, the unlikely savants of October

Yankees player spotlight: Aaron Judge, CF

He’s the best player in baseball. Period. This year, he may even be a better overall hitter than he was when he hit 62 home runs to set an AL single-season record in 2022. Judge topped the MLB leaderboard in 12 statistical categories, including home runs (58), RBIs (144), walks (133), OPS (1.159) and fWAR (11.2). He’s been a solid defender this season in center field and he’s in his second season as the team’s official captain. And as Judge builds his case for the Hall of Fame, he’ll be motivated to check off one more box: postseason performance. In 44 playoff games, he’s hit just .211 with a .772 OPS. Showing up big time in October and eventually winning a World Series ring have to be his chief concerns. But here’s the question: Will the Royals let Judge beat them? — Kuty

Royals player spotlight: Bobby Witt Jr., SS

Witt is going to finish runner-up to Judge in the AL MVP voting. But he would surely prefer a trip to the ALCS.

Witt, 24, delivered the game-winning RBI in Game 1 against the Orioles. He’s met the moment all season long. In his third major-league season, he became the first player in history with 200 hits, 100 runs, 40 doubles, 30 homers, 10 triples and 30 stolen bases in the same year.

There are no brighter lights than Yankee Stadium in October, and as Royals general manager J.J. Picollo likes to say:

Witt does not crave the spotlight. But he sure seems to embrace it. — Dodd

Tale of the Tape

Yankees must-reads

Why Aaron Judge called players-only meeting that helped spark Yankees’ September run

Inside Aaron Judge’s swing change that helped propel him to another monster season

Five takeaways on the Yankees’ regular season and what’s next in the postseason

Inside the Yankees’ scouting and development of Luis Gil

Matt Blake on why Yankees fans should believe in team’s bullpen ahead of postseason

Royals must-reads

Fear the Royals, the unlikely savants of October

Looking back at the trade that sent Cole Ragans to KC

King of the eight-pitch club: Seth Lugo rides vast arsenal to All-Star success

How Bobby Witt Jr. became ‘Bobby Baseball’: Nine stories on the road to superstardom

Around Bobby Witt Jr., Royals build a new culture and enter MLB’s modern era

GO DEEPER

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(Top image: Aaron Judge: Luke Hales / Getty Images; Bobby Witt Jr.: Jess Rapfogel / Getty Images)