Wrexham's double over Wycombe flips promotion chances in their favour – the race is on…

And so, the dash for the line begins.

Wrexham leapfrogging Wycombe Wanderers into second place courtesy of Sam Smith’s late deflected strike felt like the moment when the starter’s gun sounded on the League One run-in.

It may be advantage Wrexham thanks to a precious 1-0 win from a game that was halted for 50 minutes during the second half due to a medical emergency in the crowd.

But the race for runners-up spot looks like going the distance, Mike Dodds’ side having an early opportunity to reclaim the second automatic promotion place on Tuesday night by winning their game in hand at Rotherham United.

“It is key we don’t over celebrate this at all,” says manager Phil Parkinson. “Wycombe have had a great season, so have we. We’ve been right up there with them all season so that makes it a big win. But it is just three points.”

Around the halfway mark, League One looked on course for a possible repeat of two years ago when Sheffield Wednesday amassed a whopping 96 points but still finished outside the top two.

However, the form of those chasing runaway leaders Birmingham City has since dropped off sufficiently for those predictions to be downgraded. Now, with seven weeks remaining, anywhere between 84 and 88 points looks like being enough to clinch runners-up spot.

This pretty much fits in with recent history, as an analysis of the past decade — minus the Covid-shortened 2019-20 — shows the average total required to finish ahead of the third-placed team, and therefore be promoted automatically, stood at 87.

Predicting how the rest of a fascinating campaign at this level will pan out isn’t easy. Not least because of a feast and famine trait displayed by plenty of teams who have hit form only to then fall away dramatically.

Leyton Orient, for instance, looked to be genuine contenders for a top two finish when winning 12 out of 15 games between December and mid-February. That was until the east London club lost their next five in a row.

Huddersfield Town’s form similarly swung from cold to hot and cold again as a 16-game unbeaten run was sandwiched by four straight defeats between September and October, and three losses in a row between January and February.

Charlton Athletic are the latest to soar from mid-table to the tip six on the back of a stirring run, Nathan Jones’ resurgent side having won ten of their last 13 outings and lost just once.

After beating Wigan Athletic on Saturday, Charlton, in fourth, sit five points adrift of Wrexham in second, while Stockport’s win at Bolton Wanderers puts Dave Challinor’s men a further point behind.

With trips to Wycombe and Wrexham to come during the run-in, both Charlton and Stockport will no doubt fancy their chances of gatecrashing the top two. However, Orient and Huddersfield felt the same just a few weeks ago so it remains to be seen whether the pair can last the pace.

As for Wrexham and Wycombe, they’ve both had their stumbles, too. But what sets these two apart among the pack trailing Birmingham is a tendency to keep grinding out the results even when performance levels dip.

For Wrexham, victories over Blackpool, Wigan and Huddersfield — games in which there was little between them — very much fall into this category. Wycombe, meanwhile, have only lost six times all season, this despite changing manager mid-season after Matt Bloomfield left for Luton Town. Only Birmingham (three) have lost fewer.

Wycombe have also had to contend with opposition teams showing them a lot more respect in recent months, as opposed to the early season when Bloomfield’s still-unfancied side were banging the goals in for fun.

This consistency explains why Wrexham have been a constant feature in the top three since late August, just as Wycombe have been since the autumn. Both will still fancy their chances of pipping the other come May 3.

League One is not an easy division to second guess. Opta’s supercomputer has already proved that by predicting a 20th-place finish for Wrexham and ninth for Wycombe before a ball had been kicked in anger.

Those forecasts have been revised significantly since the summer by a computer which runs 10,000 simulations of how things will go using a host of variables, including the quality of performances, upcoming fixtures, historical results and even Opta’s own power rankings.

Before Saturday, Opta was forecasting Wrexham to finish roughly four points behind Wycombe. Now, however, the situation has flipped, with the Welsh club slight favourites with a predicted tally of 85.12 points to Wycombe’s 84.9.

The two clubs’ respective run-ins could be the decisive factor with Wycombe’s looking harder on paper. Not only must Wycombe travel to play-offs chasing quartet Reading, Huddersfield, Bolton and Orient but their final two home games are against Charlton and Stockport.

Wrexham also host the two clubs sitting fourth and fifth right now. Otherwise, though, only Blackpool and Lincoln City — 11th and 12th in the table respectively — of their remaining seven opponents currently reside in the top half.

There was little for a capacity 9,333 crowd to glean from Saturday, other than how well matched these two teams are. But for a goal-line clearance from George Dobson and a stunning Arthur Okonkwo save to deny substitute James Berry, Wycombe could easily have been celebrating a precious win.

As it was, Wrexham continued their trait of prospering once ahead to make it a points-per-game return (PPG) of 2.52 when scoring first. In contrast, their PPG when the opposition score first slumps to just 0.5. Clearly, something to bear in mind during what promises to be an enthralling run-in.

“Really important to complete the double over Wycombe,” Parkinson. “It means you’re taking points off your nearest rivals. We’ve worked so hard to get ourselves into this position. I just want the lads to enjoy being where we are with nine games to go and relish the challenge.”

(Top photo: Jasper Wax/Getty Images)