MINNEAPOLIS — If it wasn’t already the case, Chris Paddack’s return to the injured list makes it obvious the Minnesota Twins should be focused on acquiring a veteran starting pitcher by the July 30 trade deadline.
Paddack won’t be eligible to return from a strained right forearm until after the deadline, and the Twins aren’t certain when he’ll be back, let alone how much they can count on him down the stretch. Paddack’s comeback from a second Tommy John surgery had been a mixed bag, with inconsistent velocity from start to start and a 4.99 ERA with 124 base runners in 88 1/3 innings.
Regardless of Paddack’s health status, the Twins need rotation help, and that’s especially true if they have doubts about being able to count on him in August and September. Twins starters rank 23rd out of 30 teams with a 4.44 ERA this season, a steep drop-off from last year when their rotation led the American League with a 3.82 ERA.
Teams can generally get by with just three starters in the playoffs, and the Twins have a solid trio in Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. However, that front three is hardly so strong that a potential upgrade should be ruled out, and the Twins are far from assured of even making the playoffs if their rotation continues to rank in the bottom third of the league.
Paddack is a big question mark, and asking David Festa (10.80 ERA), Louie Varland (6.58 ERA) or Zebby Matthews (yet to debut) to fill a rotation spot for two months as opposed to two starts would be risky. Plus, if one of López, Ryan, Ober or Simeon Woods Richardson were to be sidelined, the Twins’ depth would really be put to the test.
At minimum, the Twins should be looking to add a veteran starter capable of being better, or at least more reliable, than Paddack or the inexperienced Triple-A options. And ideally that veteran would also have enough upside to pitch his way into the playoff rotation discussion with a good stretch run, if only as insurance against more injuries.
Carlos Correa apparently agrees, opining Monday that the Twins’ deadline focus “has to be” pitching. And the front office seemingly feels that way as well, with Dan Hayes of The Athletic reporting that “rumblings around the organization would suggest the Twins are interested in acquiring a rental starting pitcher, something they’ve avoided doing in the past.”
Nathan Eovaldi, K’ing the Side in the 2nd. pic.twitter.com/SaplhaEIRi
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 9, 2024
That would be a change in philosophy for the Derek Falvey-led front office, which has often made offseason and midseason trades for veteran starters under team control beyond the current season, including Paddack, López, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Jake Odorizzi and Sonny Gray. Meanwhile, the Twins’ last deadline trade for a rental starter was Jaime García in 2017.
Why the possible shift in approach toward rentals? For one thing, the Twins don’t necessarily have openings in their 2025 rotation. López ($21.5 million) and Paddack ($7.5 million) have guaranteed 2025 deals, Ryan and Ober are under inexpensive team control via arbitration and Woods Richardson will be a minimum-salaried bargain in his sophomore season.
Two-month rentals are also typically less costly in terms of prospect capital, theoretically enabling the Twins to upgrade the rotation without sacrificing one of their half-dozen or so high-end prospects in a trade that could come back to haunt them. Why pay full price for 40 or 70 future starts when 10 starts will suffice for right now?
And last but unfortunately not least, the payroll situation looms large after ownership cut spending by $30 million this offseason. Since then, the local television mess has gotten even worse and the team’s projected attendance increase hasn’t happened, creating unavoidable skepticism regarding the Pohlad family approving additional spending this season or even for 2025.
In other words, the Twins’ front office would have little choice but to rent at the trade deadline if ownership won’t approve the current or future payroll flexibility to buy. That doesn’t necessarily have to be a bad thing if it helps avoid another regrettable Mahle-like deal that ships out multiple prospects, but it would limit the pool of options and compromise decision-making.
Looking strictly at two-month rental possibilities with a realistic chance of being made available at the deadline, a handful stand out as logical fits for the Twins given their expected monetary costs and prospect price tags.
2 minutes and 25 seconds of sorcery. #RepDetroit @jflare_ pic.twitter.com/3EcKq6IEuU
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) April 30, 2024
Jack Flaherty has had the best season of any rental candidate, resurrecting his career on a one-year, $14 million deal with the Detroit Tigers by posting a 3.13 ERA, 2.48 xFIP and shiny 127-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 100 2/3 innings. Still just 28, the right-hander looks like a legit No. 1 starter again, much like he did as a young phenom with the St. Louis Cardinals.
But will the Tigers’ recent improved play convince them to not be sellers? And even if they do sell, which seems prudent with Flaherty now in line for a huge free-agent payday, would they move him to a division rival? Another factor: Because the Tigers can issue the qualifying offer to Flaherty, a trade package would need to entice them more than draft-pick compensation.
Texas Rangers right-hander Nathan Eovaldi isn’t technically a pure rental, since he’s 57 innings from being able to exercise a $20 million player option for 2025. However, that’s essentially his current innings pace, meaning one missed start or other workload massaging could avoid the option. Plus, he’s pitched well enough that he may decline it to become a free agent anyway.
Assuming his limited no-trade clause doesn’t rule out Minnesota, the two-time All-Star would be an ideal rental. Eovaldi is still an impact arm at age 34, posting a 3.36 ERA, 3.45 xFIP and 94 strikeouts in 99 innings largely on the strength of a mid-90s fastball, and he has an extensive, excellent playoff track record as part of two World Series winners. But will the Rangers sell?
Eovaldi’s rotation mate, Max Scherzer, is an impending free agent, but the 39-year-old future Hall of Famer has a full no-trade clause and is owed $14 million for the final two months, half of which is covered by the New York Mets. Even if he’s open to Minnesota and Texas is open to trading him, the Rangers would need to be convinced (with better prospects) to eat money.
There’s zero doubt the Toronto Blue Jays will be selling, and Yusei Kikuchi is an intriguing rental target. His career 4.69 ERA is underwhelming for a lefty with a mid-90s fastball and big strikeout rates, but he’s had dominant stretches each season. It’s been a familiar story this year, as Kikuchi has a middling 4.54 ERA despite a 3.33 xFIP and 125 strikeouts in 111 innings.
I have hugely important news for Twins Twitter: Derek Falvey just told me he was aware of the “where frankie?” meme last offseason. pic.twitter.com/masv9MZxoq
— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) December 7, 2022
Two seasons ago, the Twins’ oft-reported interest in right-hander Frankie Montas turned into a meme, but 2023 shoulder surgery has reduced the 31-year-old to merely an average-ish starter. Now with the Cincinnati Reds on a one-year, $16 million deal, Montas has a 4.85 ERA and 4.68 xFIP with just 72 strikeouts in 89 innings. They’ll certainly be motivated to move him.
Despite losing Anthony DeSclafani for the season before Opening Day, the Twins lacked the interest and/or money to sign Michael Lorenzen, who got $4.5 million from the Rangers in late March. He has a nice-looking 3.53 ERA in 97 innings, but a 4.88 xFIP paints a far uglier picture thanks to 14 homers and a 73-to-46 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Cheap veteran? Yes. Upgrade? Meh.
GO DEEPER
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(Photo of Yusei Kikuchi: Norm Hall / Getty Images)
