The Edmonton Oilers enter free agency with very little wiggle room under the cap and some real issues despite reaching Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final.
What’s more, the organization is facing some uncertainty on and off the ice.
How many of the productive free agents can management return while staying cap-compliant?
Two key areas to address: Bringing back the penalty-killing unit that delivered breathtaking results during the playoffs, plus a No. 2 right winger who can play with one of the team’s top centres, provide offence and help outscoring.
Edmonton’s management needs to sign that player to a value deal and be absolutely certain the bet is a great one from the start. Another slow start is not an option for the 2024-25 season, as the Oilers were slammed to make the playoffs all winter due to a terrible start.
That’s a tough solution for any team to find, let alone one without a general manager in place.
Not all the news is bad for the team. There is a solution.
Connor Brown.
An unusual year
Edmonton’s management group, led by CEO Jeff Jackson, will want to tweak the roster, adding pieces that can help the team make that final step to winning the Stanley Cup.
Brown’s Oilers career began with Ken Holland signing him to an incentive-laden deal. There may be a sense that it’s time to move on.
That sentiment would overlook a highly productive player.
Last year’s contract is a sunk cost. No one can reasonably expect Brown to sign a deal offering the Oilers extreme value due to his ineffectiveness during the first two-thirds of the season. Both sides signed the deal in good faith, and Brown’s only sin was taking longer than hoped to reach the point where he delivered value.
His post-deadline performance and playoff results were pristine and were superior to the first 75 percent of his season.
| Timeline | GP | Pts-60 | Goal Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Pre-deadline |
52 |
0.55 |
35 |
|
Post-deadline |
19 |
2.1 |
54 |
|
Playoffs |
19 |
0.96 |
50 |
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
The numbers tell the story. Brown had to knock off the rust and find his scoring touch; the last portion of the regular season was quality.
He continued his fine play in the postseason. The five-on-five scoring took a downward step, but Brown’s outstanding scoring and outscoring on the penalty kill was a key story for the club on the impressive playoff run.
No offence
During the regular season, Brown played very little at five-on-five with Connor McDavid’s line (zero points in 62 minutes) and was ineffective (0.39 points per 60 in 155 minutes) with Leon Draisaitl on the second line.
He was most effective (1.94 points per 60 at five-on-five) after the deadline with new arrival Sam Carrick.
During the playoffs, Brown played very little with the top two centres, and once again had success (1.32 points per 60 in 45 minutes at five-on-five) with Carrick.
He also had on-ice success (3-1 goals at five-on-five) with Adam Henrique as his centre but scored just one point in 69 minutes.
Half of Brown’s postseason offence (1-2-3) came on the penalty kill with fellow winger Mattias Janmark.
None of the numbers recorded at five-on-five during the regular season, save the Draisaitl minutes (all but 11 before the deadline and Brown’s upsurge), can be used to authoritatively discount Brown as a top-six scoring winger.
A healthy Brown may be able to deliver offence with Draisaitl or McDavid.
Brown’s own past
While a member of the Ottawa Senators, Brown had success with Brady Tkachuk (scoring 1.87 points per 60 in 898 minutes), Chris Tierney (2.26 points per 60 in 717 minutes) and Josh Norris (1.83 points per 60 in 328 minutes). All numbers are five-on-five.
During his final three seasons with the Toronto Maple Leafs, he scored 1.69 points per 60 in 566 five-on-five minutes with a young Auston Matthews.
Of note: Brown and Zach Hyman played on a line together that saw Brown score 1.52 points per 60 in 634 minutes.
When playing with skill, and not coming back from an injury so severe he missed an entire season, Brown can deliver offence.
The Carrick minutes during the regular season and playoffs, though a limited time, suggest he can also post offence on a depth line.
Oilers deployment
Signing Brown doesn’t prohibit the Oilers from aiming higher in free agency. Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic looked deep into free agency and uncovered several impressive names, including Viktor Arvidsson.
Signing both Arvidsson and Brown might seem like overkill, but injuries have impacted both men in the last 12 months, and both can play up and down the depth chart.
A right wing depth chart of Hyman, Arvidsson and Brown might give the organization the best depth at the position since the 2006 Stanley Cup run. At that time, Ales Hemsky, Radek Dvorak and Fernando Pisani gave the team terrific scoring and outscoring ability.
It would represent a major upgrade over one year ago.
The cost
Fans have been saying for some time that Brown should take a discount due to the nature of his bonus-laden deal last summer.
That’s unlikely.
Edmonton management could land an affordable cap number by signing a multiyear deal with the veteran.
The contract should not break the bank and Brown could be an extreme value contract if he does in fact get playing time on the top skill lines.
Bottom line
Jackson may be tempted to sign players who offer the club different looks. Arvidsson would be a strong option for the Draisaitl line, with Hyman firmly planted on the top line with McDavid.
Brown’s appeal comes from his ability to play a two-way role on any line. A completely healthy season from the veteran winger would give the team a lift from the beginning of the season, something he could not deliver one year ago.
Signing Brown (and Janmark if the organization can get both done) could work as an insurance policy against another slow start.
The two men were golden on the penalty kill in the playoffs, outscoring opponents 3-1 during the period Edmonton was short-handed.
The best free-agent signing for the Oilers this summer showed the team what he could do all spring.
(Photo: Sergei Belski / USA Today)
