Why the Edmonton Oilers' five-on-five scoring spike is a welcome turn

On Saturday afternoon at Rogers Place, Edmonton Oilers centre Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored twice at five-on-five to lead his team to victory.

It was an excellent performance and spiked Nugent-Hopkins’ scoring in an area he has struggled this year. He’s one of several forwards who have increased their individual scoring at five-on-five over the last 20 games and the spike in scoring has the team enjoying impressive outscoring numbers in the game state.

How much have Edmonton’s forwards spiked? Can they sustain it? Here’s a look.

The Oilers at five-on-five

Overall, the Oilers as a team are more productive in the discipline and outscoring is also up.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

The improvement in scoring at five-on-five (by far the largest game state) represents a major positive shift for the Oilers in 2024-25. The coaching staff is trying to suppress opposition offence while making certain the elite talent on the Oilers can wheel.

It’s important to note there are areas to improve. Not every line combination has played optimally this season so the current roster has more to give.

What does that look like? The Oilers with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the ice together and apart has been a revelation and a concern so far in 2024-25. Let’s run the splits (as above) for McDavid with and without Draisaitl:

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

The last 20 games show quality across the roster. The extreme scoring when McDavid and Draisaitl are together turns the game on a dime. The Oilers with the two big centres together are impossible to adequately defend.

Draisaitl without the captain is emerging as a substantial outscoring headache for opposition coaches and that’s a new gear for this team.

Even more impressive, the Oilers with both centres off the ice are a screaming success in the last 20 games. That’s an outlier result compared to the last decade for the Oilers’ second and third lines.

What needs to improve? The McDavid scoring and outscoring away from Draisaitl has improved to 50 percent five-on-five in the last 20 games, but the scoring on the line has been suppressed. That’s the area that can improve in the final 30 games of the season.

Individual scoring in the last 20 games

The best way to see the individual spikes is to compare scoring in the first 29 games to the most recent 20 contests. Experts tell us a 20-game window should offer enough sample to be trusted. Here are the totals.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

The Oilers have been rolling for 20 games, and the forwards are (mostly) scoring at a handsome rate.

McDavid’s totals are off compared to his hot start, but his scoring over the last 20 games is still in the range of a top-line talent in the NHL. No one in hockey is worried about his ability to post offence.

Mattias Janmark’s lack of scoring, added to the rest of the team’s wingers doing well, contributed to over one minute of playing time being shaved from his game average.

Without McDavid

The true test for any Oilers forward since the fall of 2015 surrounds the ability to score and outscore while playing away from the captain. It’s one thing to ride along on the No. 1 line, quite another to deliver over the rest of the game.

Including all games this season, here are the totals for each Oilers forward away from McDavid.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

Draisaitl is enjoying a career season and the big news is his tremendous play away from the captain. These are full-fledged Hart Trophy candidate totals, which become even more incredible when the 97-29 minutes are added.

His season is so good the second-line wingers (often Viktor Arvidsson and Vasily Podkolzin) have better numbers here because of the Draisaitl zoom.

Zach Hyman shows up in a good spot away from the captain. He remains the best NHL free agent ever signed by the organization and should impact the game more now that he’s away from the cumbersome shield that protected his broken nose.

Other solid performances away from McDavid include Jeff Skinner (close to 50 percent share), Corey Perry and Connor Brown.

Versus elites

What do the coaches think?

The best way to figure that out is to look at time away from McDavid while playing against elite competition.

Puck IQ gets us as close as possible to the preferred deployment by Kris Knoblauch and the Edmonton coaching staff. Here are the totals:

All numbers five-on-five, via Puck IQ

These are numbers away from McDavid, so Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman have very few minutes overall and there isn’t much to be learned from their numbers here. The coaching staff trusts both men to play with McDavid on the top line, that’s a ringing endorsement.

Podkolzin and Arvidsson receive a lift because they are Draisaitl’s linemates, but the trio is doing good work for Edmonton against elites.

That leaves the third line (Adam Henrique between Janmark and Brown) to play the rest of the big minutes versus elites. The line has been lucky (89 percent goal share versus elites for Henrique away from McDavid, but a 42 percent Dangerous Fenwick) but has come on in the most recent 20 games.

Who do you trust? 

Knoblauch deploys the McDavid line, Draisaitl line and Henrique line (along with 97-29 together) against elites. The team has been lucky with the Henrique line, but overall (including all of elites, mid-level and the soft parade) the Oilers’ four lines are outscoring effectively in the last 20 games and overall. Here are the lines, using centres as a proxy:

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

This edition of the Oilers is balanced, with the fourth line (represented by Derek Ryan) sputtering early and then recovering. McDavid’s 47 percent goal share for the season is an absolute outlier based on his career (56 percent) numbers.

Back to the questions. How much have the Oilers spiked in the last 20 games? Numbers have spiked from 2.43 GF-60 and 52 percent goal share in the first 29 games to 3.00 GF-60 and 56 percent goal share in the last 20 games.

Can they sustain it? It can be reasonably argued the Oilers should be able to extend the scoring and outscoring at five-on-five. McDavid’s line has more to give, and the trade deadline may add more wrinkles to the offence.

Knoblauch’s goal (combining potent offence with enough defensive awareness to make outscoring consistently a team strength) has arrived in Edmonton. The last 20 games suggest the coaching staff and players have found the groove.

(Photo of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: Perry Nelson / Imagn Images)