Experts say an NHL season begins to take shape after 20 games. Players have a chance to outskate slumps plus luck good and bad; teams have an opportunity to overcome roster issues and set sail for a playoff berth.
The Edmonton Oilers had an unusual late summer and preseason, but coach Kris Knoblauch has figured out how to deploy his defencemen at five-on-five.
Who is trusted, and who is being faded compared to a year ago?
The results are surprising. The emerging player, the man who has found another gear, is 30.
Time on ice versus elites
Injuries have had an impact, so it takes some creativity to get a clear view of what the coaching staff is doing with the blueliners. We can work around the issue by looking at ice time per game through 21 contests. Here are the year-over-year numbers versus elite competition:
All numbers five-on-five, via PuckIQ
Who do they trust?
First, the top pairing of Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard has seen an increase in minutes versus the NHL’s best. This is a major increase (on the way to two more minutes per game) and there’s danger (less effective tandem, injury) but the absence of alternatives clears the mind.
The Oilers are using the No. 1 pairing as a workhorse duo against elites, similar to the deployment of Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci by then-coach Jay Woodcroft when he first arrived in Edmonton in the late winter of 2022.
The results in 2024-25 have been strong. In 141 minutes versus elite competition this season, the duo is 6-6 goals with a Dangerous Fenwick (smart Corsi, similar to expected goals) of 57 percent.
Pristine numbers against the league’s best.
The uptick in playing time for Ekholm-Nurse is straight out of the coaching playbook. In a world where survival is success, playing the hell out of your best when the roster is under duress is good business.
A real innovation by Knoblauch and his coaching staff comes on the second pair. Darnell Nurse (when healthy) is being used in a key role, but the rest of the time is being split between Brett Kulak and Troy Stecher.
Kulak is enjoying a career season, his always-present foot speed and ability to close a gap on full display during a strong first 21 games. It’s frightening to imagine where this team would be without him this year.
Stecher has taken on more of the load this season and has performed well. He will always be popular with analytics devotees, as his underlying numbers are quality. So far this season, in a small sample, it’s fair to say Stecher has held his own against elites while also being the fifth best option on the roster.
Here are the results for all Oilers defencemen who are averaging over four minutes per game against elites this season
| Player | DFF Pct | DFF%RC | GF-GA |
|---|---|---|---|
|
58.9 |
4.8 |
7-6 |
|
|
58.3 |
3.5 |
6-6 |
|
|
62.6 |
8.9 |
6-3 |
|
|
58.8 |
0.3 |
4-0 |
|
|
49.8 |
-11 |
3-1 |
All numbers five-on-five, via PuckIQ
Credit to all involved and to the coaching staff, these are impressive totals considering the team had to change direction late in the summer due to the St. Louis Blues offer sheet for Philip Broberg.
Stecher is allowing the team to shelter Ty Emberson heavily, and for Nurse-Kulak to be deployed in a specialized way. The deadline probably changes Stecher’s job description but he’s delivering in an area that should be considered a stretch for his skill set.
For Nurse, who has missed time but will be counted on heavily over the last three-quarters of the season, the tandem with Kulak has been a gift.
The two men haven’t played much together versus elites but the results have been quality.
| Deployment | TOI | DFF Pct |
|---|---|---|
|
Nurse with Kulak |
36 mins |
82 |
|
Nurse without Kulak |
64 mins |
47 |
|
Kulak without Nurse |
60 mins |
59 |
All numbers five-on-five, via Puck IQ
Small samples can skew the view, but Nurse-Kulak has looked good by eye and is endorsed by limited math. As Nurse returns to the lineup, the emerging tandem should see plenty of minutes in the days to come.
The rest of the story
There’s a tendency to look at just elite minutes as a gauge for NHL players, but good-to-great teams should dominate the middle group of opponents and especially the soft parade.
Here’s a look at Edmonton’s defenceman this season against mid- and lower-level opposition.
All numbers five-on-five, via Puck IQ
Ekholm and Bouchard shine across all levels of competition. In fairness, this duo plays most often with the Connor McDavid line, but also delivers the best results in those five-on-five minutes.
Nurse and Kulak do well too, with a slight drag in results against the soft parade. That can be due to a lack of talent on the third and fourth lines, and this version of the Oilers has had issues in this area.
The bottom line
Despite Bouchard’s misadventures through 21 games, he and Ekholm have been money. At five-on-five, including all quality of competition, the duo is 17-16 goals, 61 percent expected goals through 355 minutes of action.
The second pairing (Nurse-Kulak) is 3-1 goals in 79 minutes, with an impressive 66 percent goal share.
Did the Oilers coaching staff luck into Kulak’s brilliance when paired with Nurse? Or did the hockey Gods send Knoblauch a veteran poised to deliver a career season?
It doesn’t matter.
The biggest surprise so far this season in Edmonton is Kulak’s outstanding play. He has been unable to succeed with Emberson as his partner, going 6-12 goals at five-on-five with the young defender. Playing with all other defensive partners, Kulak is at 7o percent (7-3 goals) for the season.
Rumours abound in Edmonton regarding a possible trade for a left-handed defenceman who can play the right side. Oilers radio and television commentator Bob Stauffer mentioned it this week in an interview with Gene Principe on Sportsnet.
Several players meet the criteria mentioned in the broadcast (lefty who plays right side and hasn’t been discussed by media), including Mike Matheson of the Montreal Canadiens, Olli Määttä of the Utah Hockey Club and Alec Martinez of the Chicago Blackhawks.
It’s difficult to imagine acquiring a player who is better working his off-side. Kulak is the goods.
It might be a case of the Oilers coaching staff convincing Kulak his deployment there could be a key to winning this season. The player general manager Stan Bowman may be looking for right now is already on the roster.
(Photo of Brett Kulak: Codie McLachlan / Getty Images)
